Sunday, November 13, 2005

SONICS FANS THIS SCARES ME !!!!!

In preparing for the game tomorrow morning between the Raptors and the Sonics I have made a discovery that terrifies me. Last year the Sonics went 52-30 and the Raptors went 33-49. However, they were the exact same team except the Sonics hit the offensive glass and the Raptors didn't. Check out the numbers below. Look how eerily similar they all are expect for the offensive rebounding numbers.
Realize the only reason the Sonics have a superior offensive efficiency number is the offensive rebounding.
What does this mean for the Sonics margain for error?

2004-05 Season
Stat Sonics Raptors
O Efficiency 109.2 105.2
Effective FG% 49.5 49.2
Offensive Reb% 32.4 23.7
Turnover % 13.3 13.0
Free Throws Per 26 25.6

D Efficiency 107.8 107.7
Def Effective FG% 49.6 49.9
Def Rebounding% 71.3 71.7
Def Turnover % 13.8 14.2

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

This is an important find. The teams are also very similar on three point shooting amount and %, free throw attempts/made, blocks, etc.

But the team win/loss difference was more than rebounding; it was rebounding differential (a huge difference of 8), defense (raptors were 5 points worse), coaching, and clutch play. But we no longer have any of these advantages so far this year.

Anonymous said...

Raptors were 5 points worse in actual points allowed rather than an officeincy rating which is standardized to 100 possessions.

The pace the teams played were slightly different. The Raptors gave up about 4 more shots a game (while only shooting 2 more), which led to almost 4 points scored by the opponent and the Raptors 1% higher FG% allowed than the Sonics, which taken over all shots, adds another point to make a 5 point difference.

Anonymous said...

The Sonics had 7 guys who shot over 50% eFG in the clutch last year and Ray Allen was actually only 46% but took the most responsibility. Radmanovic, Fortson, Collison and James were all above 60%, Lewis 56%, Daniels 51%. Ridnour onlt 35% eFG. Murray, Wilkins, Evans also over 50% in limited minutes.

Toronto had guys over 50% in the clutch too, but their two main guys Bosh and Rose werent.

Anonymous said...

Correction: the Raptors only had a fraction of a 1% higher FG% allowed as you corectly note, but over 85 shots that still makes for most of a point, as I stated.

griff said...

This is a great starting lineup... i wonder if Weiss had this line up in the back of his head but couldnt use it because someone upstairs didnt want to start Nick?

griff said...

Luke is having a great night!

Anonymous said...

Luke a good night on offense, but not defense or clutch leadership.