Wednesday, March 22, 2006


Let’s take a look at Washington v. Connecticut through the numbers. Breaking the game into 4 phases, taking care of the ball, shooting the ball, rebounding the ball and getting to the free throw line. This game should be played a blistering pace as these are the 2 of the top 6 pace of play teams in the NCAA tournament.

A few definitions for you. Trip Efficiency is your offensive rating for every time you cross half court, in other words it doesn’t count an offensive rebound as a new possession. Possession efficiency does the opposite it counts every shot or turnover as a possession and if you get an offensive rebound you have a new possession. Effective Field Goal% weighs three point shots.

Here is the Washington v. Connecticut breakdown.

When UConn has the ball …..

  • Stat Conn’s Offense Huskies Defense
    Trip Efficiency 114.2 95.3
    Possession Efficiency 92.9 79.2
    Turnovers per possession 16.2% 21.3%
    Effective Field Goal % 51.1% 48.2%
    Rebounding 44.4% 68.2%
    Free Throws per game 25.5
  • Connecticut is not a particularly good offensive team. They are a very average tournament team in efficiency and scoring. The way they score is on the offensive glass and the free throw line, both cases they are the #1 team in the tournament. Washington’s defense is predicated on forcing the turnover. They have the highest rated defensive turnover % of any team left in the tournament.

    When Washington has the ball ….

  • Stat Washington’s Off Conn’s Def
    Trip Efficiency 113.1 91.8
    Possession Efficiency 94.0 74.8
    Turnovers per Possession 17.1% 16.2%
    Effective Field Goal% 52.6% 42%
    Reboudning % 42.5% 67.1%
    Free Throws per game 20.9

  • When Washington has the ball it is going to be a battle of two great squads. Washington is the 8th best offense in the tournament and UConn is #4 defensively. Connecticut is the best in the NCAA against the shot.

    Washington’s ability to keep control of their defensive glass will be the difference in this game. That is significant because last year Washington would never of had a chance in this matchup.


    Sonic EJ said...

    If UConn is on their game we have no chance.

    That being said,

    Sonic EJ's Keys to the game:

    1. Washington's defensive rebounding. One and done or we lose.

    2. Washington's free-throws. This is the only way Washington will be able to score consistantly. I think 30 shots at about a 70% clip is what we have to have or it will be over early.

    Sonic EJ said...

    BTW, Thanks for the stats Locke.