Locked on Sports: Fear, not numbers, sacked Holmgren: "Holmgren's entire decision to run, not pass, was based upon a 9.2 percent chance. Yet, in the minds of most coaches, it is the correct decision.
With the established risk at 9.2 percent, what are the other possibilities? More than 56 percent of the time Hasselbeck passes, he completes the pass; 34.3 percent of his attempts fall incomplete.
What was the gain? In Brown's career, if he attempts a kick from between 40 and 49 yards, he makes 61.9 percent of the kicks. When the attempt is between 30 and 39 yards, he connects on 90.5 percent.
A nearly 30 percent gain with a 9.2 percent risk? Can I please have that investment?"