Wednesday, March 15, 2006



Kansas – They have no fatal flaws and they have the best efficiency differential. My pick for the Final Four. They have two areas of concern. Offense efficiency of 90.8 is low. Only 7 of 44 F4 teams have had a rating below 92. In addition, they turn the ball over 18.8% of their possessions. Only 7 of 44 F4 teams have turned it over that much. These are major concerns because the two stats that lead to the most success last year was offensive efficiency and ability to force turnovers. The Jayhawks pass 7 of the 9 rules for F4 Teams.

Memphis -- They have no fatal flaws and their differential is 20.4 compared to Kansas at 20.6. Their only weakness is offensively with a rating of 90.4. This is a major concern for both Kansas and Memphis as only 4 teams in the last 11 years have made the Final Four with a rating under 91. Lose in the Sweet 16 to Kansas.

Pittsburg -- They have no fatal flaw. However, they only have two of the nine qualities of a F4 team. Lose in the round of 32 to Kansas, but any other bracket and they had a shot.

UCLA -- The Bruins have a fatal flaw. Only 1 team has gone to F4 committing turnovers on more then 19% of their possessions. The Bruins turn it over 19.8% of the time. That is the second worst of any team in the tournament and last year only 2 of the bottom 12 turnover teams made the Sweet Sixteen. UCLA should do that making it all the way to the Elite 8 because they won’t have to play anyone.

Arkansas -- No fatal flaws, but they have a hard time scoring and their effective field goal differential is not of F4 quality. Only 6 of the last 44 F4 teams have had a differential under 6 and the Razorbacks are at 3.45. Fall to Memphis in the second round.

Bucknell-- Lesser competition so the numbers may not have value, but against lesser competition they turn the ball over 20% of their possessions. That is a fatal flaw and a first round lose to Arkansas who forces 20.8% of possessions into turnovers. Great efficiency differential and 9 of the top 11 last year made the Sweet Sixteen. They would classify.

Gonzaga Their defense is a fatal flaw. No team has made the F4 with a defensive rating of 88.7. Also, the Zags only force 16.4% of opponents possessions into turnovers, 4th worst in the tournament. Last year, 1 of the bottom 13 and 2 of the bottom 22 in that category made the Sweet Sixteen. The Zags offense is great, 6th best in the tournament. However, their differential is not special. A second round out by the Zags to San Diego State.

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