Saturday, April 16, 2005

GREAT GUARDS AND THE AGING PROCESS



Should the Sonics sign Ray Allen who will be 30 years old at the beginning of next season to a long-term contract? The argument is solely based upon the history of guards and the age that they decline. The following is a chart of the best guards in the recent history of the NBA and when their career took a considerable dive.
The results are daunting. Sixteen of the Forty greatest guards had a considerable decline by the time they turned 32 years old and twenty-eight of the forty or 70% declined in their 33rd year.
Should the Sonics sign Ray Allen to a long term contract if 70% of the greatest guards slipped by the time Allen would be in the third year of the contract.
Michael Jordan and Magic Johnson were excluded from this research due to the bizaree retirements or numerous retirements.

40 GREATEST GUARDS OF RECENT ERA

DECLINED AT AGE 30
Terry Porter 30 18 pts to 13 to 9 . FG% 45 to 42% to 38%
Doc Rivers 30 15 to 11 to 8. Games: 79 to 59 to 77 to 19
Dale Ellis 30 24 pts to 17 pts bigger at 34 –17 to 11pts
Paul Westphal 30 21 to 16 to 11

DECLINED AT AGE 31
Kevin Johnson 31 broken
Sleepy Floyd 31 12 to 9 to 6 pts per game
Mark Price 31 16 pts to 8 pts a game

DECLINED AT AGE 32

Ron Boone 32 huge dropoff
Byron Scott 32 statistical drop-off
Joe Dumars 32 dropoff 18 pts to 12 to 14 – broken at 35
Tim Hardaway 32 injuries and dropoff
Derek Harper 32 from 18 to 10 pts per game
Norm Nixon 32 injuries broken down
Pete Maravich 32 broken
Isiah Thomas 32 18 to 14 then retired
Alan Houston 32 82 games to 50 games to 20 games and 11 pts

DECLINED AT AGE 33
Dave Bing 33 huge dropoff
Rolando Blackman 33 broken at 33
Mookie Blaylock 33 broken at 33
Maurice Cheeks 33 14 to 11 to 9
Walter Davis 33 dropoff 23 to 18 to 16 – broken at 36
Clyde Drexler 33 no dropoff but games played 52,62,70
Walt Frazier 33 broken 16 to 10 to 2 pts game
World B. Free 33 broken 23 to 6 pts
George Gervin 33 26 pts to 21 to 15 pts
Gail Goodrich 33 22 pts to 19 to 12
Jeff Malone 33 broken down
Steve Smith 33 12 to 7 pts, 46% to 39%, only 53 games

DECLINED AT AGE 34
Dennis Johnson 34 13 to 10 to 7 pts per game
Nate Archibald 34 injuries + pts and assists decline
Mitch Richmond 34 23 to 19 to 17 then off the map
Reggie Theus 34 retired
Gary Payton 34 FG% drop, 3pt% plummet, pts down 3 a game
Latrell Sprewell 34 this season

DECLINED AT AGE 35
John Havelick 35
Jeff Hornacek 35 was the 3rd option
Alex English 35 off the table
John Stockton 35 declined but stayed effective

DECLINED AT AGE 36
Elgin Baylor 36 no decline until 36
Reggie Miller 36 from 19 pts to 16.5 to 12

3 comments:

-A. said...

I really like this set of stats you put together. Ray Allen is a great, great player. But even before seeing these stats I have been wary of the Sonics maxing him out.

You get into a really dicey area with max deals. Look at Kidd in NJ. You begin to lose your ability to keep a strong team together (they lost Kenyon Martin a year after signing Kidd). You don't want to get stuck in a situation 2 or 3 years from now with an untradable contract.

I think the Sonics have a strong core of young players. You really want to make sure you have to ability to add pieces when they start to peak a few years from now.

They have built up a lot of confidence in themselves this year. In the end I do not think it would be the worst possible thing if Allen does not come back.

But if it realistic I'd like him back...just not while putting the future at great risk.

You know what I mean?

Locked on Sports said...

Thanks for the nice comments. I hear you it makes me wonder as well. Ray is one of the finest players in the game. He is clutch and consistent, but it looks as though age bites everyone.

Mick White said...

I think they should re-sign him. In my opinion he's the Rock this team is building on. And since they don't have a whole big pile of rocks yet... although they are stacking them up... they need to keep Ray Allen... and I'm sticking to my story!