HOW ARE THE NUMBERS DOING?

In the meantime, how are the numbers doing. The numbers really are about picking the Sweet 16, the Elite 8 and the Final 4. Therefore, I will update based on who is alive in those.

Sweet 16 (11 of 16)-- Duke, Texas A&M, West Virginia, Texas, Memphis, Kansas, SDSU, UCLA, UConn, Illinois, UNC, Withita St, Villanova, Boston College, Florida and Ohio State.

Elite 8 (5 of the 8) -- Duke, Texas, Kansas, UCLA, UConn, UNC, Villanova and Florida

Final (2 still alive) -- Texas,Kansas, UConn, Florida

SIMULBLOG FOR SONICS V. BUCKS

Sonics 114 Bucks 105 --- FINAL SCORE
This is a totally different team. They played with strong energy all night. They have great depth even with the injuries and the guys understand how to play together,
Chris Wilcox had a career high 30 points and a double-double. He was magnificent. Teams really are going to have to game plan to his high wire act. You can’t leave him for a moment when the Sonics get into the paint.
The defense was very good all game. The Sonics guarded the rim very well. Their were two back to back plays late in the game when the Bucks drove the left baseline and beat their man but then had their shot altered by the long help defense of the Sonics big men.
Earl Watson finished the game and did it with a flash.
Ridnour played well today. I would rather have him then TJ Ford.
This is a good team win and a sign that there are positive days ahead


Sonics 94 Bucks 90 with 5:56 left in the 4th Quarter
With 8:44 left Allen was 3 of 13 since then he is 1 for 1
With 8:44 left Redd was 8 of 19 since he is 0 for 2
Redd and Allen both have 5 fouls with 5:56 left in the 4th
Eli Roe, one of the officials is a zoo. He may be the worst in the NBA. He is having a miserable night.
So much of the Sonics offense is free lance open floor that when they game gets tight they go to half court sets and that means that Wilcox and the bigs don’t get those penetration opportunities or open floor easy looks. Instead, the Sonics work hard to get Allen and Lewis there looks.
Dan Gadzuric is dominating the Sonics game tonight.


Sonics 83 Bucks 75 at the end of 3rd Quarter
Rashard Lewis welcome back. 15 points in the quarter for Lewis
Sonics are much more aggressive and have lived at the line – 36 attempts
Chris Wilcox has a career high 28 points and 12 rebounds. What a find.
Sonics defense has been solid all night long.
Defensive rating through three quarters is 101. That is great.


Seattle 69 Bucks 68 with 5:13 left in the 3rd Quarter
I think I would rather have Luke Ridnour more then TJ Ford. Ford is a bit player and Ridnour could be a many year starter.
Michael Redd is seriously outplaying Ray Allen. Ray is 2 for 11. Reed has 17.
Wilcox has not been as dominant but they don’t run plays for him so they have to materialize in the game.


Sonics 55 Bucks 54 at the half
Chris Wilcox has 20 points in the first half tonight and he has 7 rebounds.
He reminds me of a young Antonio McDyess. McDyess averaged 21-11 one year in Phoenix and I don’t think it is crazy to think Wilcox could head in that direction.
The Sonics are up by 1 with Lewis and Allen just 4 of 14.
Toni Kukoc beat Rashard off the dribble tonight. That is a crime


Bucks 38 Sonics 33 with 8:22 left in the 2nd Quarter
The Bucks just jumped on the Sonics with a line-up that should never beat you.
Ford and Bell were the guards with Kukoc, Joe Smith and Gadzuric. This team can’t score. They can’t shoot and they just kicked the Sonics butt.
Those are things that have to change if this team is going to correct itself.


Sonics 28 Bucks 24 at the end of 1 Quarter
The Sonics defense was terrific to close the quarter. The shots were contested and moreover the drive to the hoop were altered. The Sonics are showing signs of having the instincts of a good defensive basketball team. The area around the basket is clogged.
The rebounding was very good as well on the defensive end.
9-0 run by the Sonics to end the quarter
Chris Wilcox played a fantastic first quarter
Earl Watson came into the game and brought an immediate energy to the team.
I am not sure you can win with TJ Ford as your point guard. He was very unimpressive and he really can’t shoot.


Bucks 17 Sonics 13 with 5:09 left in the 1st Quarter
Johan Petro hit a jump hook from the post that was awesome. Petro has a skill pac
kage that makes you wonder what he might be able to accomplish. At other times he looks like a raw 19 year old.
Andrew Bogut looks like he has tired legs. However, his movement and instincts are terrific. He is enormous and will be a terrific player.
The post defense is lacking tonight by the Sonics.
Chris Wilcox continues to be impressive.


Storylines
1) Watson returns who finishes
2) Chris Wilcox hot play
3) The #1 pick of the draft, Andrew Bogut, is in the house
4) Ray Allen v. Michael Redd

SWEET SIXTEEN BY THE NUMBERS

Let’s take a look at Washington v. Connecticut through the numbers. Breaking the game into 4 phases, taking care of the ball, shooting the ball, rebounding the ball and getting to the free throw line. This game should be played a blistering pace as these are the 2 of the top 6 pace of play teams in the NCAA tournament.

A few definitions for you. Trip Efficiency is your offensive rating for every time you cross half court, in other words it doesn’t count an offensive rebound as a new possession. Possession efficiency does the opposite it counts every shot or turnover as a possession and if you get an offensive rebound you have a new possession. Effective Field Goal% weighs three point shots.


Here is the Washington v. Connecticut breakdown.

When UConn has the ball …..

Stat Conn’s Offense Huskies Defense
Trip Efficiency 114.2 95.3
Possession Efficiency 92.9 79.2
Turnovers per possession 16.2% 21.3%
Effective Field Goal % 51.1% 48.2%
Rebounding 44.4% 68.2%
Free Throws per game 25.5

Connecticut is not a particularly good offensive team. They are a very average tournament team in efficiency and scoring. The way they score is on the offensive glass and the free throw line, both cases they are the #1 team in the tournament. Washington’s defense is predicated on forcing the turnover. They have the highest rated defensive turnover % of any team left in the tournament.

When Washington has the ball ….

Stat Washington’s Off Conn’s Def
Trip Efficiency 113.1 91.8
Possession Efficiency 94.0 74.8
Turnovers per Possession 17.1% 16.2%
Effective Field Goal% 52.6% 42%
Reboudning % 42.5% 67.1%
Free Throws per game 20.9

When Washington has the ball it is going to be a battle of two great squads. Washington is the 8th best offense in the tournament and UConn is #4 defensively. Connecticut is the best in the NCAA against the shot.

Washington’s ability to keep control of their defensive glass will be the difference in this game. That is significant because last year Washington would never of had a chance in this matchup.

HAWKS SPREAD THEIR WINGS

The NFL Network is reporting that the Seattle Seahawks have signed linebacker Julian Peterson to a huge 7 year contract with as much as 18 million in guarantees.

This is a big time signing and gives the Hawks a defensive player that teams have to game plan for. The Hawks were solid defensive last season, but they have not had a player that teams need to alter their plan to deal with since Tez was at his best.

Peterson is that type of player. A consummate professional who makes yearly trips to the Pro-Bowl Peterson is a game changer. Moreover, he is the perfect compliment to the Hawks Lofa Tatupu and LeRoy Hill. The advantageous part of having two youngsters at the other linebacker spots means the Hawks can spend the type of money they are spending on Peterson.

Moreover, this alleviates some of the pressure on Tatupu and Hill. DD Lewis will be replaced in the starting line-up and he has shown no ability to change games or stay in games. This is a dramatic upgrade for the Hawks defensively.

According to the NFL Network, the Hawks are still pursuing John Abraham who is another serious game changer on the defensive end.

The Hawks are still without a second corner back or safety depth in the secondary.

HAWKS DECLINE ON HUTCH

Priority #1 for the Seattle Seahawks this off season has left the building. Steve Hutchinson is a Minnesota Viking.

There is no debate left on whether or not the Hawks made a mistake not franchising Hutchinson. They made a terrible mistake. They may have done it as a good faith gesture, but it has backfired terribly and the complexion of this team is terribly altered.

The offensive line has been the core of this football team. Last year, it became obvious they had an advantage going into every game in the battle of their offensive line against their defensive line.

Moreover, the dynamic tandem of Hutchinson and Walter Jones covered up the other Hawks weaknesses. The reason Robbie Toebeck was a pro-bowler was because the Hawks were able to cover for the veteran with the play of Hutchinson. Chris Gray is also closer to 40 then 30 and his game is slipping. However, that was covered up by what the Hawks could do with Hutch in the interior of the line.

This team has been built to win right now. However, they just lost their #1 advantage going into each and every game. Shaun Alexander was the MVP and Matt Hasselbeck seems on the verge of being an MVP, but both are going to have bring their games to a new pinnacle without the mauler Steve Hutchinson on the line.

NUMBERS SHOW A LOT BUT GETTING THE DIVIDENDS

UPDATE: 7:55 pm Sunday
We have reached the Sweet Sixteen and in a crazy year we have 10 of the 16 sweet sixteen teams. I am not pleased with this, but maybe I should run the numbers on Bradley and George Mason.
I am on vacation and when I return I will update any trends that may have developed.
What is surprising is while the overall results are not as good as I would like many of the indicators are holding very true

Did last year's trends continue .....

Update is in green.

· 9 of the top 13 offensive teams made the Sweet Sixteen and all Final Four Teams were in the Top 8. This makes Memphis a questionable pick since they are 32nd offensively. Memphis makes the Sweet 16. The UNC loss is one of the better offensive teams falling out. Without all my data I am not sure, but I believe this trend is going to hold with the Zags, the Huskies and West Virginia all making the 16.

· 0 of the bottom 10 offensive teams made the Sweet Sixteen. This eliminates Iowa, Arizona, Syracuse, Oklahoma, Southern Illinois, Seton Hall, UNC-Wilmington, UW-Milwaukee, Wisconsin and LSU. Check this out. The only teams to survive to the second round other then LSU beat another team on this list. This is a great indicator to upsets. LSU maintains and makes the Sweet 16 despite the offensive ineffectiveness.

· Nine of the Top 11 and 10 of the top 14 efficiency differential teams were Sweet Sixteen and the top 4 were Final Four. The top 4 are Texas, UConn, Florida and Kansas. The next are Memphis, Duke, Illinois, Bucknell, Washington, Villanova, George Washington, Ohio State, UNC and UCLA. Kansas was knocked out in the first round. Illinois lost to Washington who is aslo in the top 14 and GW lost to Duke who is in the top 14. Kansas loss is the only one to break the trend. Ohio State loss on Sunday is a surprise by this indiciator. Not as good an indicator this year but still strong as 7 of the top 10 made the Sweet 16, while only 8 of the top 14 (three lost to teams in the top 8).

· Only 2 of the bottom 15 effective field goal % teams made the Sweet Sixteen. Of teams seeded to go to the Sweet Sixteen this includes, Iowa, Villanova and 5 seeds Pittsburg, Nevada and Syracuse . This holds very true. Only Villanova got through to the Sweet 16. Last year was 2 of the bottom 15 to the Sweet 16 and I believe this year it is only 1 of 15.

· 12 of the top 16 defensive turnover % teams made the Sweet Sixteen. These are UAB, Texas A&M, Southern Illinois, Arizona, Bucknell, Tennessee, G Washington, Washington, West Virginia, UNC-Wilmington, Memphis, Arkansas, Kansas, Villanova, Florida and UCLA. Surprisingly 10 of this group are out of the tourny. This indicator is a failure in 2006.

· Only 1 of the bottom 13 defensive turnover % teams and 2 of the bottom 22 made the sweet Sixteen – Of the teams seeded to go to the Sweet Sixteen this includes, UConn, Gonzaga, Boston College, Ohio State, and UNC. The reverse of last year shows again on the turnovers.

LOCKE'S NUMBERS V. THE GURU OF THE NCAA MITCH LEVY

UPDATED -- 7:57 PM ON SUNDAY
The real issue is if the numbers beat NCAA guru Mitch Levy. If you haven't heard Mitch mocked the numbers with some real venom. Therefore, I proposed a $200 bet for the charity of our choice on who wins. We will keep you up to date.
Here are Mitch's teams (the guys to root against)

NOTE -- We told you Iowa was prime for the upset since they couldn't score.

FINAL 4
Mitch's Final 4 - West Virginia, Memphis, UConn, Boston College
Locke's Final 4 - Texas, Kansas, UConn, Florida

TEAMS TO ROOT AGAINST
Teams's Mitch has in the Elite 8 that Locke's numbers don't -- West Virginia, Memphis, Indiana, Michigan St., Boston College.

Teams's Mitch has in the Sweet 16 that Locke's numbers don't -- LSU, Indiana, Pittsburgh, Michigan St., Tennessee,Georgetown

Current Standings
Mitch's Teams left as of the Sweet 16 = 11
Locke's Teams left as of the Sweet 16 = 10

Big Games in the Sweet 16
Texas (Locke) v. West Virginia (Mitch)
Villanova (Locke) v. Boston College (Mitch)
Memphis (Mitch) v. Bradley (none)
UCLA (Locke) v. Gonzaga (none)

HOW ARE THE NUMBERS DOING?

In the meantime, how are the numbers doing. The numbers really are about picking the Sweet 16, the Elite 8 and the Final 4. Therefore, I will update based on who is alive in those.

Sweet 16 (10 of 16)-- Duke, Texas A&M, West Virginia, Texas, Memphis, Kansas, SDSU, UCLA, UConn, Illinois, UNC, Withita St, Villanova, Boston College, Florida and Ohio State.

Elite 8 (6 still alive) -- Duke, Texas, Kansas, UCLA, UConn, UNC, Villanova and Florida

Final (3 still alive) -- Texas, Kansas, UConn, Florida

THE METHOD TO THE MADNESS OF BRACKETOLOGY BY THE NUMBERS

BRACKETOLOGY BY STATS – 2006 UPDATE
Here is the method to all this madness. I have done a stat breakdown of the last 44 Final Four teams to dictate what a Final Four team. With that I have created the 9 thresholds that all Final Four teams have meet. If you don’t reach these you will not go the Final Four..

YOU WILL NOT GO TO THE FINAL FOUR IF …
1. Offensive Efficiency is below 90 ---
2. If you defensive efficiency is above 87..
3. If your efficiency differential is below 8
4. Effective Field Goal % is under 49%
5. If your defensive Effective Field Goal % is over 50%
6. If your effective field goal % differential is under 2.
7. If your rebounding % is below 50%
8. If you turnover more than 19% of your possessions
9. If you turnover just 15% of your defensive possessions.

Then to get a little more detail I found 9 things that would put you in the 15% of all Final Four teams. They are ….
YOU ARE BUCKING THE TREND TO GO TO THE FINAL FOUR IF ….
1. Your offensive efficiency is below 92. (7 of last 44)
2. If your defensive efficiency is over 83. (4 of the last 44)
3. If your efficiency differential is below 11. (6 of last 44)
4. If you effective field goal % is under 50% (4 of the last 44)
5. If you defensive effective field Goal % is over 47% (7 of last 44)
6. If you Field Goal differential is under 5 (6 of last 44)
7. If you turn it over more than 18% of your possessions (7 of 44)
8. If your defensive turns over under 16% of their possessions (5 of last 44)
9. If your assisted field goals is below 55% (6 of last 44)

Finally, what does a Final Four team look like. These are the qualities that 65% of the last 11 years worth of Final Four Teams have.
YOU CAN GO TO THE FINAL FOUR IF ….(65% of Final Four Teams)
1. Offensive Efficiency over 93 you are in good shape. 29 of 40 Final Four teams.
2. Defensive Efficiency under 80 also in good shape. 27 of 40 Final Four teams.
3. Efficiency Difference is over 15 then 28 of 44 teams.
4. Effective Field Goal over 52.5% for 28 of 44 teams.
5. Defensive effective Field Goal below 46% for 30 of 44 teams
6. Field Goal Differential over 7 and 30 of 44.
7. Rebounding % over 53% 29 of 44 teams.
8. Turnover % is under 17% then 27 of 44 teams.
9. Defensive turnover % must be over 18% 34 of 44 teams

WHO WILL BE THE SURPRISES?

PICKING UPSETS OFF LAST YEAR’S RESULTS

· 9 of the top 13 offensive teams made the Sweet Sixteen and all Final Four Teams were in the Top 8. This makes Memphis a questionable pick since they are 32nd offensively.

· 0 of the bottom 10 offensive teams made the Sweet Sixteen. This eliminates Iowa, Arizona, Syracuse, Oklahoma, Southern Illinois, Seton Hall, UNC-Wilmington, UW-Milwaukee, Wisconsin and LSU

· Nine of the Top 11 and 10 of the top 14 efficiency differential teams were Sweet Sixteen and the top 4 were Final Four. The top 4 are Texas, UConn, Florida and Kansas. The next are Memphis, Duke, Illinois, Bucknell, Washington, Villanova, George Washington, Ohio State, UNC and UCLA.

· Only 2 of the bottom 15 effective field goal % teams made the Sweet Sixteen. Of teams seeded to go to the Sweet Sixteen this includes, Iowa, Villanova and 5 seeds Pittsburg, Nevada and Syracuse

· 12 of the top 16 defensive turnover % teams made the Sweet Sixteen. These are UAB, Texas A&M, Southern Illinois, Arizona, Bucknell, Tennessee, G Washington, Washington, West Virginia, UNC-Wilmington, Memphis, Arkansas, Kansas, Villanova, Florida and UCLA.

· Only 1 of the bottom 13 defensive turnover % teams and 2 of the bottom 22 made the sweet Sixteen – Of the teams seeded to go to the Sweet Sixteen this includes, UConn, Gonzaga, Boston College, Ohio State, and UNC

ATLANTA BRACKET BY THE NUMBERS

ATLANTA BRACKET – IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE FOR FINAL FOUR

Texas -- The perfect team. I created 9 rules that 65% of all F4 teams over the last 11 years have done. Texas is the only team in the tournament to hit all 9 barriers.. The efficiency differential is #1 in the tournament. Last year the top 4 efficiency differential teams were the Final Four and 9 of the top 11 were Sweet Sixteen. They are also the only team in this bracket without a fatal flaw. Texas is your National Champ.

Duke -- They have a fatal flaw. They only grab 47.8 of their rebounds. No team has made the F4 with a rebounding % that low in the last 11 years. They are the #1 offensive team. They fall in the Elite 8 to Texas who gets 57% of their rebounds.

Texas A&M -- They have a nice efficiency differential. The fatal flaw is bad rebounding, but look for tournament surprises with a defensive turnover rate of 24%.

West Virginia -- An awesome offensive team. However, they don’t defend a lick. They are the worst defensive team in the tournament and the worst rebounding team in the tournament. A good draw will get them to the Sweet Sixteen.

George Washington -- Numbers might not be quality due to the Atlantic 10. They don’t do anything great. They are #7 in forced turnovers but they lose to Duke.

LSU - Prime pick for an early upset. Last year 0 of the bottom 10 offensive teams made the Sweet Sixteen and that is right where LSU sits at 9th worst. They are a defensive based team and those don’t advance. They lose to Texas A&M in the second round.

Iowa -- Another very flawed team. They can’t score. They are the 2nd worst offensive team in the tournament. Last year, 0 of the bottom 10 made the sweet sixteen.

WASHINGTON DC BRACKET BY THE NUMBERS

WASHINGTON DC BRACKET – IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE FOR F4

UConn -- This is tough between Illinois and UConn. UConn gets the edge because they have a better efficiency differential (22.3 to 18.6). UConn is not great offensively. Last year, all Final Four teams were in the top 8 offensively and UConn is 22nd. Also, UConn doesn’t force turnovers. They are the second worst in the tournament at 16.2%. Last year, only 2 of the bottom 22 defensive turnover people made the Sweet Sixteen. This is not a no-brainer.

Illinois -- Another offensively challenged team. Even moreso then Uconn. An offensive efficiency rating of 91.6 and only 7 of the last 44 F4 teams have had a rating under 92. Otherwise, they are nearly perfect. They hit 7 of the 9 rules of a F4 team. They lose to UConn in the Sweet Sixteen. They are a good pick.

Washington -- This is the worst draw in the tournament. They are the third best team in the bracket and they will lose in the second round. They have no fatal flaws. They hit 5 of the 9 rules for F4 teams. They are the 14th best offense and the 9th best differential team. Their Defensive Effective Field Goal% is just 48.2 and only 7 of 44 F4 have been over 47%. They are the 8th best at forcing turnovers and last year 12 of the top 16 made the sweet sixteen. However, Illinois is too good.

UNC -- They turn the ball over 19.4% of their possessions and that is more then any F4 team in the last 11 years. Otherwise, they don’t even buck a trend. They hit on 4 of the 9 rules. Their offense is in the top 16. They fall in the elite eight to UConn but it is a very good match-up for UNC considering how few turnovers UConn forces. UNC may be the pick due to the frailties of UConn and Illinois.

Tennessee -- This team is a joke. Pick Wintrop. Tennessee has three fatal flaws, their defensive efficiency is 87.6, their rebounding is under 50% and they don’t have any field goal differential. They do two things well, they shoot and they force turnovers which are good indicators but this team is too flawed to make a F4 run.

Michigan State -- Similar to Tennessee but they don’t force the turnovers. They score very well and don’t defend.

MINNEAPOLIS BRACKET BY THE NUMBERS

MINNEAPOLIS BRACKET – IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE FOR THE F4

Florida - They have the best efficiency differential in the bracket and no fatal flaw. Their only weakness is they turn the ball over 18.8% of possessions and only 7 of 44 F4 teams have done that. On the positive side, they are the #2 offensive team in the tournament and 9 of the top 13 offensive teams last year made the Sweet Sixteen and all of the Final Four were in the Top 8. They have the #2 efficiency differential in the tournament. They are 15th in defensive turnover % and last year 12 of the top 16 made the sweet sixteen and all 4 of the Final Four were in the top 13. Gators to the F4

Villanova - Nova doesn’t have a fatal flaw and their only weakness is their effective field goal differential which is 2.8. That is the 11th worst and last year only 2 of the bottom 15 made the sweet sixteen. They make the Elite Eight and lose to Florida.

Ohio State - They Buckeyes only get 49.8% of their rebounds. That is a fatal flaw. Only one team has made the final 4 under 50% of the last 44. To their benefit rebounding is not a major indicator of tournament success. Offense is 7th best in the tournament. They will be Florida’s biggest test but will lose in the Sweet Sixteen.

Boston College - They are without a fatal flaw but they don’t defend. The defensive rating is 85.4 and only 4of the last 44 F4 teams have had a rating over 83. Also, only 6 of the last 44 have had an efficiency differential under 11 and they are 10.3.
The offense is big time. They lose to Villanova in the Sweet Sixteen.

Nevada - They don’t have a fatal flaw. The only concern is their offense is weak and offense wins and they don’t force a lot of turnovers. This team is solid, but to make progress in the tournament you have to score and force turnovers and they don’t do either. Boston College gets them.

Georgetown - They don’t have a fatal flaw. However, they are like Boston College. The two are almost identical statistically. Ohio State ends Georgetown’s season.

OAKLAND BRACKET BY THE NUMBERS

OAKLAND BRACKET -- IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE TO MAKE THE F4

Kansas – They have no fatal flaws and they have the best efficiency differential. My pick for the Final Four. They have two areas of concern. Offense efficiency of 90.8 is low. Only 7 of 44 F4 teams have had a rating below 92. In addition, they turn the ball over 18.8% of their possessions. Only 7 of 44 F4 teams have turned it over that much. These are major concerns because the two stats that lead to the most success last year was offensive efficiency and ability to force turnovers. The Jayhawks pass 7 of the 9 rules for F4 Teams.

Memphis -- They have no fatal flaws and their differential is 20.4 compared to Kansas at 20.6. Their only weakness is offensively with a rating of 90.4. This is a major concern for both Kansas and Memphis as only 4 teams in the last 11 years have made the Final Four with a rating under 91. Lose in the Sweet 16 to Kansas.

Pittsburg -- They have no fatal flaw. However, they only have two of the nine qualities of a F4 team. Lose in the round of 32 to Kansas, but any other bracket and they had a shot.

UCLA -- The Bruins have a fatal flaw. Only 1 team has gone to F4 committing turnovers on more then 19% of their possessions. The Bruins turn it over 19.8% of the time. That is the second worst of any team in the tournament and last year only 2 of the bottom 12 turnover teams made the Sweet Sixteen. UCLA should do that making it all the way to the Elite 8 because they won’t have to play anyone.

Arkansas -- No fatal flaws, but they have a hard time scoring and their effective field goal differential is not of F4 quality. Only 6 of the last 44 F4 teams have had a differential under 6 and the Razorbacks are at 3.45. Fall to Memphis in the second round.

Bucknell-- Lesser competition so the numbers may not have value, but against lesser competition they turn the ball over 20% of their possessions. That is a fatal flaw and a first round lose to Arkansas who forces 20.8% of possessions into turnovers. Great efficiency differential and 9 of the top 11 last year made the Sweet Sixteen. They would classify.

Gonzaga Their defense is a fatal flaw. No team has made the F4 with a defensive rating of 88.7. Also, the Zags only force 16.4% of opponents possessions into turnovers, 4th worst in the tournament. Last year, 1 of the bottom 13 and 2 of the bottom 22 in that category made the Sweet Sixteen. The Zags offense is great, 6th best in the tournament. However, their differential is not special. A second round out by the Zags to San Diego State.

NCAA TOURNAMENT BY THE NUMBERS

I have had a ton of requests for the NCAA numbers. I will post them tonight in some capacity after the Sonics game. This will take some time and I need to figure out a format that works.

DL

SIMULBLOG SONICS V. SUNS

Suns 127 Sonics 120 – FINAL SCORE
The action was insane. Non-stop all night
In the first half Bob Hill stayed big and then in the second half he was forced to go small
Steve Nash is amazing. The comments about his core were really noticeable once you get to it in person it is remarkable.
The Suns never missed a mismatch during the game
The Suns have to incredibly how fatiguing to play both mentally and physically.
The Suns got 33% of their offensive rebounds and they usually get 22%. This was the difference in the game
The game had 98 possessions.
Sonics offensive rating 123 but Phoenix was 132.


Suns 118 Sonics 110 with 3:56 left in the 4th Quarter
Allen hits a transition three that ignites the crowd
Ridnour went one on one on Nash and got rejected and sent sprawling
Nash never looses his balance
The Sonics are going hard at the Suns but they can’t get enough stops to get back in the game
The Suns never miss a mismatch on the floor and get a ton of easy looks because of it.


Suns 102 Sonics 90 at the end of 3 Quarters
This is just pure open floor craziness
Rashard Lewis and Boris Diaw were the centers and Ray Allen and Marion were the power forwards
Spread the floor and penetrate.
Some Sonics players looked gassed at the end of the quarter
The Suns are now shooting 57% and scored 35 points in the 3rd


Suns 92 Sonics 79 with 3:13 left in the 3rd Quarter
The Suns have scored on 10 straight possessions.
In the pre-game conversation with the Suns head Coach he talked about Nash’s core strength and how he never looses his balance. It is unreal to watch up close. He never losses his balance no matter how much he gets bumped.
The pace forces the Sonics into some poor possessions because of mental and physical fatigue. Those possessions cost you the game.


Suns 67 Sonics 61 at the half
I can’t keep up this game to blog
If you look down you miss something
It is just a wild the pace of the game
The Suns penetrate and kick game is amazing.
Ray Allen brought the Sonics back. 19 points in the first half.
The Sups are 7 of 11 from 3
We have played 50+ possessions in the first half.
Lewis needs to play better, he seems out of it again.


Suns 36 Sonics 28 at the end of 1 Quarter
The Suns made their surge when Allen went out of the game. That has been a season long issue.
49 shots in the Quarter – 20 of them three’s
The Suns haven’t taken a free throw – they take the fewest of any team in the NBA
Tim Thomas is killing Seattle he is 6 of 6 and has 15 points.


Sonics 14 Suns 14 with 5:51 left in the 1st Quarter
Holy Smokes – the pace of this game is unbelievable
The floor is open and these guys are running every time
Petro looked like he was going to have cardiac arrest
The Suns took 17 shots in the first 6 minutes
The Suns are the worst offensive rebounding team in the NBA and they already have 5 you can’t allow that.


Storylines
1) Offense
2) Steve Nash, Steve Nash and Steve Nash
3) Last time was a mismatch jamboree who will create the mismatches this time.

SIMULBLOG OF SONICS V. LAKERS

There will be no simulblog because I will be calling the game in place of KC.

NFL FREE AGENCY

John Clayton had another tremendous show today on 950, KJR. Some of the news from the show. The Hawks are making a strong run at cornerback Wil Allen. The Cleveland Browns are on the verge of signing Big Joe Jurevivus and as has been talked about Marquand Manuel is expected to move to Green Bay.

The real issue to keep an eye on is the Vikings. They have contacted Steve Hutchinson's agent and they have huge money to spend for the All-Pro Guard. The Hawks have the ability to match, but the problem is the Vikings can try to do some creative things in the contract that make it very hard to match the deal. Seattle knew they might be playing with fire when they transitioned instead of franchised Hutch and the fire may be a Minnesota offer.

SIMULBLOG FOR SONICS V. WOLVES

Wolves 63 Sonics 56 with 5:57 left in the 3rd Quarter
Sonics get their first fast break basket of the night with 6:47 left in the 3rd
Rashard Lewis is not right. He is 1 of 9 from the floor
Kevin Garnett is not on his game tonight either 4 of 13
The Wolves are leaving the door open.


Wolves 55 Sonics 48 at the half
Ray Allen is begging for help and he isn’t getting it
Sonics defense is absent again tonight from the action
Sonics offense has been relegated to the half court, no fast break points


Wolves 37 Sonics 33 with 6:03 left in the 2nd Quarter
Sonics go on a 9-1 run with Watson and Allen in the backcourt
The Sonics bigs are fun to watch but they are still making a ton of errors and it costs the Sonics.
The Wolves got 46% of eligible offensive rebounds in the 1st Quarter



Wolves 17 Sonics 14 with 5:33 left in the 1st Quarter
High paced game to start
Minnesota has scored on 8 straight possessions
Ray Allen has come with a ton of fire
Petro is working hard, but he still ends up in the wrong position or makes a defense mistake with a ton of regularity


STORYLINES
1) Duane Casey returns to the Key
2) Wolves inability to win close games
3) Sonics bounce back from bad performance against Grizz
4) Chris Wilcox playing against Kevin Garnett

SIMULBLOG FOR SONICS V. GRIZZ

Grizzlies 89 Sonics 70 with 5:59 left in the 4th Quarter
Memphis has controlled this game throughout.
Seattle can’t do anything to Gasol. If they double he slices them up and if they single he beats the guy guarding him. He looks amazing.
This is a really poor performance. They never were able to institute their will on Memphis at all.


Grizz 75 Sonics 56 at the end of 3 Quarter
Chucky Atkins and Gasol killed the Sonics in the third
The Grizz are playing ring around the posey with their passing game.
The ball movement is amazing. They are using both sides of the floor at all times and slicing the Sonics apart.
At some point Seattle has to impede the progress of a Memphis player. They are making easy to play against. They are very passive with their pressure and double teams
Gasol is dominate with the ball. They run everything


Grizz 44 Sonics 37 at the half
All Memphis.
The pace has been very slow. We have only played 43 possessions. Memphis averages 88 and that is the slowest in the league
Seattle is getting crushed on the boards. In the 2nd Quarter Seattle only got 36% of the eligible defensive rebounds


Griz 39 Sonics 32 with 1:42 left in the 2nd Quarter
The Grizz are playing amazing help defense on the Sonics
Every time Allen or Lewis make a move they are meet by a hoard of Grizz defenders.
On the flip side, Seattle is taking the ball out of Gasol’s hands but they are finding the cutter and getting easy looks
Seattle is really struggling on the defensive glass. Petro has to be better rebounding on the defensive end of the ball. Memphis is not a good offensive rebounding team and they are crushing Seattle.


Grizz 27 Sonics 23 with 8:38 left in the 2nd Quarter
It would be amazing tonight to have a chart of the Sonics possessions comparing their success in the half court compared to the open floor. Obviously, you are always better in the open floor. However, tonight the Sonics have to be about 10% conversion rate on the half court possessions. They are only scoring in transition. This puts huge pressure on there defense and defensive rebound. Two weaknesses for most of the season


Grizz 25 Sonics 16 at the end of 1 Quarter
This has been a half court game so far. – only 22 possessions. Right on the average of the Grizz which is the slowest in the NBA.
Chris Wilcox is vicious around the rim when the Sonics are able to penetrate and find him he is a slam machine
The Grizz run everything through Gasol and the Sonics are doubling him every time.
The Grizz have exploited that by getting good look jumpers.


Grizz 12 Sonics 8 with 4:29 left in the 1st Quarter.
This game is really a tug of war about pace of play. The Sonics are trying to push off both makes and misses and the Grizz are amazingly methodical getting into the half court each and every possession.
Chris Wilcox made a great play sprinting the floor after he stopped a fast break and Ridnour found him for a dunk.
Some really ugly basketball so far


Key to the whole game will be pace of play