NUMBERS SHOW A LOT BUT GETTING THE DIVIDENDS

UPDATE: 7:55 pm Sunday
We have reached the Sweet Sixteen and in a crazy year we have 10 of the 16 sweet sixteen teams. I am not pleased with this, but maybe I should run the numbers on Bradley and George Mason.
I am on vacation and when I return I will update any trends that may have developed.
What is surprising is while the overall results are not as good as I would like many of the indicators are holding very true

Did last year's trends continue .....

Update is in green.

· 9 of the top 13 offensive teams made the Sweet Sixteen and all Final Four Teams were in the Top 8. This makes Memphis a questionable pick since they are 32nd offensively. Memphis makes the Sweet 16. The UNC loss is one of the better offensive teams falling out. Without all my data I am not sure, but I believe this trend is going to hold with the Zags, the Huskies and West Virginia all making the 16.

· 0 of the bottom 10 offensive teams made the Sweet Sixteen. This eliminates Iowa, Arizona, Syracuse, Oklahoma, Southern Illinois, Seton Hall, UNC-Wilmington, UW-Milwaukee, Wisconsin and LSU. Check this out. The only teams to survive to the second round other then LSU beat another team on this list. This is a great indicator to upsets. LSU maintains and makes the Sweet 16 despite the offensive ineffectiveness.

· Nine of the Top 11 and 10 of the top 14 efficiency differential teams were Sweet Sixteen and the top 4 were Final Four. The top 4 are Texas, UConn, Florida and Kansas. The next are Memphis, Duke, Illinois, Bucknell, Washington, Villanova, George Washington, Ohio State, UNC and UCLA. Kansas was knocked out in the first round. Illinois lost to Washington who is aslo in the top 14 and GW lost to Duke who is in the top 14. Kansas loss is the only one to break the trend. Ohio State loss on Sunday is a surprise by this indiciator. Not as good an indicator this year but still strong as 7 of the top 10 made the Sweet 16, while only 8 of the top 14 (three lost to teams in the top 8).

· Only 2 of the bottom 15 effective field goal % teams made the Sweet Sixteen. Of teams seeded to go to the Sweet Sixteen this includes, Iowa, Villanova and 5 seeds Pittsburg, Nevada and Syracuse . This holds very true. Only Villanova got through to the Sweet 16. Last year was 2 of the bottom 15 to the Sweet 16 and I believe this year it is only 1 of 15.

· 12 of the top 16 defensive turnover % teams made the Sweet Sixteen. These are UAB, Texas A&M, Southern Illinois, Arizona, Bucknell, Tennessee, G Washington, Washington, West Virginia, UNC-Wilmington, Memphis, Arkansas, Kansas, Villanova, Florida and UCLA. Surprisingly 10 of this group are out of the tourny. This indicator is a failure in 2006.

· Only 1 of the bottom 13 defensive turnover % teams and 2 of the bottom 22 made the sweet Sixteen – Of the teams seeded to go to the Sweet Sixteen this includes, UConn, Gonzaga, Boston College, Ohio State, and UNC. The reverse of last year shows again on the turnovers.

LOCKE'S NUMBERS V. THE GURU OF THE NCAA MITCH LEVY

UPDATED -- 7:57 PM ON SUNDAY
The real issue is if the numbers beat NCAA guru Mitch Levy. If you haven't heard Mitch mocked the numbers with some real venom. Therefore, I proposed a $200 bet for the charity of our choice on who wins. We will keep you up to date.
Here are Mitch's teams (the guys to root against)

NOTE -- We told you Iowa was prime for the upset since they couldn't score.

FINAL 4
Mitch's Final 4 - West Virginia, Memphis, UConn, Boston College
Locke's Final 4 - Texas, Kansas, UConn, Florida

TEAMS TO ROOT AGAINST
Teams's Mitch has in the Elite 8 that Locke's numbers don't -- West Virginia, Memphis, Indiana, Michigan St., Boston College.

Teams's Mitch has in the Sweet 16 that Locke's numbers don't -- LSU, Indiana, Pittsburgh, Michigan St., Tennessee,Georgetown

Current Standings
Mitch's Teams left as of the Sweet 16 = 11
Locke's Teams left as of the Sweet 16 = 10

Big Games in the Sweet 16
Texas (Locke) v. West Virginia (Mitch)
Villanova (Locke) v. Boston College (Mitch)
Memphis (Mitch) v. Bradley (none)
UCLA (Locke) v. Gonzaga (none)

HOW ARE THE NUMBERS DOING?

In the meantime, how are the numbers doing. The numbers really are about picking the Sweet 16, the Elite 8 and the Final 4. Therefore, I will update based on who is alive in those.

Sweet 16 (10 of 16)-- Duke, Texas A&M, West Virginia, Texas, Memphis, Kansas, SDSU, UCLA, UConn, Illinois, UNC, Withita St, Villanova, Boston College, Florida and Ohio State.

Elite 8 (6 still alive) -- Duke, Texas, Kansas, UCLA, UConn, UNC, Villanova and Florida

Final (3 still alive) -- Texas, Kansas, UConn, Florida

THE METHOD TO THE MADNESS OF BRACKETOLOGY BY THE NUMBERS

BRACKETOLOGY BY STATS – 2006 UPDATE
Here is the method to all this madness. I have done a stat breakdown of the last 44 Final Four teams to dictate what a Final Four team. With that I have created the 9 thresholds that all Final Four teams have meet. If you don’t reach these you will not go the Final Four..

YOU WILL NOT GO TO THE FINAL FOUR IF …
1. Offensive Efficiency is below 90 ---
2. If you defensive efficiency is above 87..
3. If your efficiency differential is below 8
4. Effective Field Goal % is under 49%
5. If your defensive Effective Field Goal % is over 50%
6. If your effective field goal % differential is under 2.
7. If your rebounding % is below 50%
8. If you turnover more than 19% of your possessions
9. If you turnover just 15% of your defensive possessions.

Then to get a little more detail I found 9 things that would put you in the 15% of all Final Four teams. They are ….
YOU ARE BUCKING THE TREND TO GO TO THE FINAL FOUR IF ….
1. Your offensive efficiency is below 92. (7 of last 44)
2. If your defensive efficiency is over 83. (4 of the last 44)
3. If your efficiency differential is below 11. (6 of last 44)
4. If you effective field goal % is under 50% (4 of the last 44)
5. If you defensive effective field Goal % is over 47% (7 of last 44)
6. If you Field Goal differential is under 5 (6 of last 44)
7. If you turn it over more than 18% of your possessions (7 of 44)
8. If your defensive turns over under 16% of their possessions (5 of last 44)
9. If your assisted field goals is below 55% (6 of last 44)

Finally, what does a Final Four team look like. These are the qualities that 65% of the last 11 years worth of Final Four Teams have.
YOU CAN GO TO THE FINAL FOUR IF ….(65% of Final Four Teams)
1. Offensive Efficiency over 93 you are in good shape. 29 of 40 Final Four teams.
2. Defensive Efficiency under 80 also in good shape. 27 of 40 Final Four teams.
3. Efficiency Difference is over 15 then 28 of 44 teams.
4. Effective Field Goal over 52.5% for 28 of 44 teams.
5. Defensive effective Field Goal below 46% for 30 of 44 teams
6. Field Goal Differential over 7 and 30 of 44.
7. Rebounding % over 53% 29 of 44 teams.
8. Turnover % is under 17% then 27 of 44 teams.
9. Defensive turnover % must be over 18% 34 of 44 teams

WHO WILL BE THE SURPRISES?

PICKING UPSETS OFF LAST YEAR’S RESULTS

· 9 of the top 13 offensive teams made the Sweet Sixteen and all Final Four Teams were in the Top 8. This makes Memphis a questionable pick since they are 32nd offensively.

· 0 of the bottom 10 offensive teams made the Sweet Sixteen. This eliminates Iowa, Arizona, Syracuse, Oklahoma, Southern Illinois, Seton Hall, UNC-Wilmington, UW-Milwaukee, Wisconsin and LSU

· Nine of the Top 11 and 10 of the top 14 efficiency differential teams were Sweet Sixteen and the top 4 were Final Four. The top 4 are Texas, UConn, Florida and Kansas. The next are Memphis, Duke, Illinois, Bucknell, Washington, Villanova, George Washington, Ohio State, UNC and UCLA.

· Only 2 of the bottom 15 effective field goal % teams made the Sweet Sixteen. Of teams seeded to go to the Sweet Sixteen this includes, Iowa, Villanova and 5 seeds Pittsburg, Nevada and Syracuse

· 12 of the top 16 defensive turnover % teams made the Sweet Sixteen. These are UAB, Texas A&M, Southern Illinois, Arizona, Bucknell, Tennessee, G Washington, Washington, West Virginia, UNC-Wilmington, Memphis, Arkansas, Kansas, Villanova, Florida and UCLA.

· Only 1 of the bottom 13 defensive turnover % teams and 2 of the bottom 22 made the sweet Sixteen – Of the teams seeded to go to the Sweet Sixteen this includes, UConn, Gonzaga, Boston College, Ohio State, and UNC

ATLANTA BRACKET BY THE NUMBERS

ATLANTA BRACKET – IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE FOR FINAL FOUR

Texas -- The perfect team. I created 9 rules that 65% of all F4 teams over the last 11 years have done. Texas is the only team in the tournament to hit all 9 barriers.. The efficiency differential is #1 in the tournament. Last year the top 4 efficiency differential teams were the Final Four and 9 of the top 11 were Sweet Sixteen. They are also the only team in this bracket without a fatal flaw. Texas is your National Champ.

Duke -- They have a fatal flaw. They only grab 47.8 of their rebounds. No team has made the F4 with a rebounding % that low in the last 11 years. They are the #1 offensive team. They fall in the Elite 8 to Texas who gets 57% of their rebounds.

Texas A&M -- They have a nice efficiency differential. The fatal flaw is bad rebounding, but look for tournament surprises with a defensive turnover rate of 24%.

West Virginia -- An awesome offensive team. However, they don’t defend a lick. They are the worst defensive team in the tournament and the worst rebounding team in the tournament. A good draw will get them to the Sweet Sixteen.

George Washington -- Numbers might not be quality due to the Atlantic 10. They don’t do anything great. They are #7 in forced turnovers but they lose to Duke.

LSU - Prime pick for an early upset. Last year 0 of the bottom 10 offensive teams made the Sweet Sixteen and that is right where LSU sits at 9th worst. They are a defensive based team and those don’t advance. They lose to Texas A&M in the second round.

Iowa -- Another very flawed team. They can’t score. They are the 2nd worst offensive team in the tournament. Last year, 0 of the bottom 10 made the sweet sixteen.

WASHINGTON DC BRACKET BY THE NUMBERS

WASHINGTON DC BRACKET – IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE FOR F4

UConn -- This is tough between Illinois and UConn. UConn gets the edge because they have a better efficiency differential (22.3 to 18.6). UConn is not great offensively. Last year, all Final Four teams were in the top 8 offensively and UConn is 22nd. Also, UConn doesn’t force turnovers. They are the second worst in the tournament at 16.2%. Last year, only 2 of the bottom 22 defensive turnover people made the Sweet Sixteen. This is not a no-brainer.

Illinois -- Another offensively challenged team. Even moreso then Uconn. An offensive efficiency rating of 91.6 and only 7 of the last 44 F4 teams have had a rating under 92. Otherwise, they are nearly perfect. They hit 7 of the 9 rules of a F4 team. They lose to UConn in the Sweet Sixteen. They are a good pick.

Washington -- This is the worst draw in the tournament. They are the third best team in the bracket and they will lose in the second round. They have no fatal flaws. They hit 5 of the 9 rules for F4 teams. They are the 14th best offense and the 9th best differential team. Their Defensive Effective Field Goal% is just 48.2 and only 7 of 44 F4 have been over 47%. They are the 8th best at forcing turnovers and last year 12 of the top 16 made the sweet sixteen. However, Illinois is too good.

UNC -- They turn the ball over 19.4% of their possessions and that is more then any F4 team in the last 11 years. Otherwise, they don’t even buck a trend. They hit on 4 of the 9 rules. Their offense is in the top 16. They fall in the elite eight to UConn but it is a very good match-up for UNC considering how few turnovers UConn forces. UNC may be the pick due to the frailties of UConn and Illinois.

Tennessee -- This team is a joke. Pick Wintrop. Tennessee has three fatal flaws, their defensive efficiency is 87.6, their rebounding is under 50% and they don’t have any field goal differential. They do two things well, they shoot and they force turnovers which are good indicators but this team is too flawed to make a F4 run.

Michigan State -- Similar to Tennessee but they don’t force the turnovers. They score very well and don’t defend.

MINNEAPOLIS BRACKET BY THE NUMBERS

MINNEAPOLIS BRACKET – IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE FOR THE F4

Florida - They have the best efficiency differential in the bracket and no fatal flaw. Their only weakness is they turn the ball over 18.8% of possessions and only 7 of 44 F4 teams have done that. On the positive side, they are the #2 offensive team in the tournament and 9 of the top 13 offensive teams last year made the Sweet Sixteen and all of the Final Four were in the Top 8. They have the #2 efficiency differential in the tournament. They are 15th in defensive turnover % and last year 12 of the top 16 made the sweet sixteen and all 4 of the Final Four were in the top 13. Gators to the F4

Villanova - Nova doesn’t have a fatal flaw and their only weakness is their effective field goal differential which is 2.8. That is the 11th worst and last year only 2 of the bottom 15 made the sweet sixteen. They make the Elite Eight and lose to Florida.

Ohio State - They Buckeyes only get 49.8% of their rebounds. That is a fatal flaw. Only one team has made the final 4 under 50% of the last 44. To their benefit rebounding is not a major indicator of tournament success. Offense is 7th best in the tournament. They will be Florida’s biggest test but will lose in the Sweet Sixteen.

Boston College - They are without a fatal flaw but they don’t defend. The defensive rating is 85.4 and only 4of the last 44 F4 teams have had a rating over 83. Also, only 6 of the last 44 have had an efficiency differential under 11 and they are 10.3.
The offense is big time. They lose to Villanova in the Sweet Sixteen.

Nevada - They don’t have a fatal flaw. The only concern is their offense is weak and offense wins and they don’t force a lot of turnovers. This team is solid, but to make progress in the tournament you have to score and force turnovers and they don’t do either. Boston College gets them.

Georgetown - They don’t have a fatal flaw. However, they are like Boston College. The two are almost identical statistically. Ohio State ends Georgetown’s season.

OAKLAND BRACKET BY THE NUMBERS

OAKLAND BRACKET -- IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE TO MAKE THE F4

Kansas – They have no fatal flaws and they have the best efficiency differential. My pick for the Final Four. They have two areas of concern. Offense efficiency of 90.8 is low. Only 7 of 44 F4 teams have had a rating below 92. In addition, they turn the ball over 18.8% of their possessions. Only 7 of 44 F4 teams have turned it over that much. These are major concerns because the two stats that lead to the most success last year was offensive efficiency and ability to force turnovers. The Jayhawks pass 7 of the 9 rules for F4 Teams.

Memphis -- They have no fatal flaws and their differential is 20.4 compared to Kansas at 20.6. Their only weakness is offensively with a rating of 90.4. This is a major concern for both Kansas and Memphis as only 4 teams in the last 11 years have made the Final Four with a rating under 91. Lose in the Sweet 16 to Kansas.

Pittsburg -- They have no fatal flaw. However, they only have two of the nine qualities of a F4 team. Lose in the round of 32 to Kansas, but any other bracket and they had a shot.

UCLA -- The Bruins have a fatal flaw. Only 1 team has gone to F4 committing turnovers on more then 19% of their possessions. The Bruins turn it over 19.8% of the time. That is the second worst of any team in the tournament and last year only 2 of the bottom 12 turnover teams made the Sweet Sixteen. UCLA should do that making it all the way to the Elite 8 because they won’t have to play anyone.

Arkansas -- No fatal flaws, but they have a hard time scoring and their effective field goal differential is not of F4 quality. Only 6 of the last 44 F4 teams have had a differential under 6 and the Razorbacks are at 3.45. Fall to Memphis in the second round.

Bucknell-- Lesser competition so the numbers may not have value, but against lesser competition they turn the ball over 20% of their possessions. That is a fatal flaw and a first round lose to Arkansas who forces 20.8% of possessions into turnovers. Great efficiency differential and 9 of the top 11 last year made the Sweet Sixteen. They would classify.

Gonzaga Their defense is a fatal flaw. No team has made the F4 with a defensive rating of 88.7. Also, the Zags only force 16.4% of opponents possessions into turnovers, 4th worst in the tournament. Last year, 1 of the bottom 13 and 2 of the bottom 22 in that category made the Sweet Sixteen. The Zags offense is great, 6th best in the tournament. However, their differential is not special. A second round out by the Zags to San Diego State.

NCAA TOURNAMENT BY THE NUMBERS

I have had a ton of requests for the NCAA numbers. I will post them tonight in some capacity after the Sonics game. This will take some time and I need to figure out a format that works.

DL

SIMULBLOG SONICS V. SUNS

Suns 127 Sonics 120 – FINAL SCORE
The action was insane. Non-stop all night
In the first half Bob Hill stayed big and then in the second half he was forced to go small
Steve Nash is amazing. The comments about his core were really noticeable once you get to it in person it is remarkable.
The Suns never missed a mismatch during the game
The Suns have to incredibly how fatiguing to play both mentally and physically.
The Suns got 33% of their offensive rebounds and they usually get 22%. This was the difference in the game
The game had 98 possessions.
Sonics offensive rating 123 but Phoenix was 132.


Suns 118 Sonics 110 with 3:56 left in the 4th Quarter
Allen hits a transition three that ignites the crowd
Ridnour went one on one on Nash and got rejected and sent sprawling
Nash never looses his balance
The Sonics are going hard at the Suns but they can’t get enough stops to get back in the game
The Suns never miss a mismatch on the floor and get a ton of easy looks because of it.


Suns 102 Sonics 90 at the end of 3 Quarters
This is just pure open floor craziness
Rashard Lewis and Boris Diaw were the centers and Ray Allen and Marion were the power forwards
Spread the floor and penetrate.
Some Sonics players looked gassed at the end of the quarter
The Suns are now shooting 57% and scored 35 points in the 3rd


Suns 92 Sonics 79 with 3:13 left in the 3rd Quarter
The Suns have scored on 10 straight possessions.
In the pre-game conversation with the Suns head Coach he talked about Nash’s core strength and how he never looses his balance. It is unreal to watch up close. He never losses his balance no matter how much he gets bumped.
The pace forces the Sonics into some poor possessions because of mental and physical fatigue. Those possessions cost you the game.


Suns 67 Sonics 61 at the half
I can’t keep up this game to blog
If you look down you miss something
It is just a wild the pace of the game
The Suns penetrate and kick game is amazing.
Ray Allen brought the Sonics back. 19 points in the first half.
The Sups are 7 of 11 from 3
We have played 50+ possessions in the first half.
Lewis needs to play better, he seems out of it again.


Suns 36 Sonics 28 at the end of 1 Quarter
The Suns made their surge when Allen went out of the game. That has been a season long issue.
49 shots in the Quarter – 20 of them three’s
The Suns haven’t taken a free throw – they take the fewest of any team in the NBA
Tim Thomas is killing Seattle he is 6 of 6 and has 15 points.


Sonics 14 Suns 14 with 5:51 left in the 1st Quarter
Holy Smokes – the pace of this game is unbelievable
The floor is open and these guys are running every time
Petro looked like he was going to have cardiac arrest
The Suns took 17 shots in the first 6 minutes
The Suns are the worst offensive rebounding team in the NBA and they already have 5 you can’t allow that.


Storylines
1) Offense
2) Steve Nash, Steve Nash and Steve Nash
3) Last time was a mismatch jamboree who will create the mismatches this time.