GREAT GUARDS AND THE AGING PROCESS

Should the Sonics sign Ray Allen who will be 30 years old at the beginning of next season to a long-term contract? The argument is solely based upon the history of guards and the age that they decline. The following is a chart of the best guards in the recent history of the NBA and when their career took a considerable dive.
The results are daunting. Sixteen of the Forty greatest guards had a considerable decline by the time they turned 32 years old and twenty-eight of the forty or 70% declined in their 33rd year.
Should the Sonics sign Ray Allen to a long term contract if 70% of the greatest guards slipped by the time Allen would be in the third year of the contract.
Michael Jordan and Magic Johnson were excluded from this research due to the bizaree retirements or numerous retirements.

40 GREATEST GUARDS OF RECENT ERA

DECLINED AT AGE 30
Terry Porter 30 18 pts to 13 to 9 . FG% 45 to 42% to 38%
Doc Rivers 30 15 to 11 to 8. Games: 79 to 59 to 77 to 19
Dale Ellis 30 24 pts to 17 pts bigger at 34 –17 to 11pts
Paul Westphal 30 21 to 16 to 11

DECLINED AT AGE 31
Kevin Johnson 31 broken
Sleepy Floyd 31 12 to 9 to 6 pts per game
Mark Price 31 16 pts to 8 pts a game

DECLINED AT AGE 32
Ron Boone 32 huge dropoff
Byron Scott 32 statistical drop-off
Joe Dumars 32 dropoff 18 pts to 12 to 14 – broken at 35
Tim Hardaway 32 injuries and dropoff
Derek Harper 32 from 18 to 10 pts per game
Norm Nixon 32 injuries broken down
Pete Maravich 32 broken
Isiah Thomas 32 18 to 14 then retired
Alan Houston 32 82 games to 50 games to 20 games and 11 pts

DECLINED AT AGE 33
Dave Bing 33 huge dropoff
Rolando Blackman 33 broken at 33
Mookie Blaylock 33 broken at 33
Maurice Cheeks 33 14 to 11 to 9
Walter Davis 33 dropoff 23 to 18 to 16 – broken at 36
Clyde Drexler 33 no dropoff but games played 52,62,70
Walt Frazier 33 broken 16 to 10 to 2 pts game
World B. Free 33 broken 23 to 6 pts
George Gervin 33 26 pts to 21 to 15 pts
Gail Goodrich 33 22 pts to 19 to 12
Jeff Malone 33 broken down
Steve Smith 33 12 to 7 pts, 46% to 39%, only 53 games

DECLINED AT AGE 34
Dennis Johnson 34 13 to 10 to 7 pts per game
Nate Archibald 34 injuries + pts and assists decline
Mitch Richmond 34 23 to 19 to 17 then off the map
Reggie Theus 34 retired
Gary Payton 34 FG% drop, 3pt% plummet, pts down 3 a game
Latrell Sprewell 34 this season

DECLINED AT AGE 35
John Havelick 35
Jeff Hornacek 35 was the 3rd option
Alex English 35 off the table
John Stockton 35 declined but stayed effective

DECLINED AT AGE 36
Elgin Baylor 36 no decline until 36
Reggie Miller 36 from 19 pts to 16.5 to 12

SEATTLE STORM DRAFT TANISHA WRIGHT

From the looks of things Anne Donovan may have hit the perfect compliment to her Championship team. The team has filled most of the spots on its front court. They acquired a back-up to Sue Bird from Australia and two foreign players to battle for small forward. Therefore, she was looking for a role player to fill needs.

Checking the pre-draft anaylsis it looks as though she nailed it. From ESPN.com this is description of Wright.

>Probably the least talked about lock for the first round, just as she was the least talked about star in the Big Ten. Wright earned first-team all-conference honors by doing the little things in Kelly Mazzante's shadow as a junior and then repeated that honor as Penn State's focal point as a senior. The only knocks on Wright are that she lacks 3-point range and her field-goal percentage slipped dramatically when she took over for Mazzante as the primary offensive option. But even if her offense still needs polish, Wright is a perfect all-around threat for a playoff contender looking to add role players in the second half of the first round.

OPENING SMASH FOR APRIL 12TH

HAWKS
Huge news on the Hawks front. I have confirmed that the Seattle Seahawks have signed Jamie Sharper. The deal is reportedly for 5 years and 17.5 million dollars. This is a huge get for the Hawks. Money talks and that is the bottom line, but it is also a strong sign of the new leadership in Seattle. Sharper choose the Hawks over the Bengals who are coached by his former coach and the Ravens his former team. He knew what to expected at both of those places. He must feel strongly that the Hawks are headed in the correct direction. That is the good news. Now what does that mean for Chad Brown and other Seahawks is unclear. Losing Chad Brown would be a sad day for this franchise. It may however, be inevitable.

MARINERS
Great win yesterday and you have to tip your hat to Ryan Franklin who was just amazing. With all the question marks in the rotation my bet is he ends up starting 25 games this year for the Mariners. He is what he is, but he is consistent and I think Mike Hargrove is going to realize with all the other question marks he has, that Franklin is a nice guy to have around. Speaking of Hargrove learning, it seems to me that he doesn’t quite understand his personnel yet. It makes sense and it will take time, but right now I think he is fiddling and he is not sure what he is fiddling with. Keeping Thornton in on Sunday, not pulling Moyer on Saturday, going to Eddie two days in a row, relying so much on Olivo at catching all seem to me to be moves of a guy who doesn’t quite know his team yet.

MECHE
Bad news out of Mariners camp. Gill Meche is complaining about elbow pain. They X-Rayed him and moved him back a day in the rotation, but this guy has to be healthy and has to be great for the Mariners to be over .500, the larger concern is that his arms hurts again. It makes you wonder if the arm is sound or if his mind is sound. He obviously isn’t right and he has insane stuff. The question becomes does he have insane make-up.

SONICS
Can we all take a step back on the Sonics front? I was talking to Nate today and we went back to where we were at the beginning of the season. 5 game losing streaks or not this season is amazing. I think they will get the 1 game and win the division and yes it is looming and it is getting a bit tight. But back up. Think about it. This team has won 50 games. Nate should win Coach of the Year, Rashard has become an all-star, Ray Allen has been a stud, Luke and Nick have developed into legit NBA players. Before the injuries they had a formula to wins games and people couldn’t stop it. We are talking about the 2004-05 Sonics, a team most of us thought would struggle to win 35 games. Stop stressing out about what is going to happen and take a big picture look at this. It will make the celebrating all the better when it happens.

YANKEES ARE CLASSLESS
If you have ever needed more reason to hate the Yankees I have one for you. Their classless approach to the RedSox ceremony. They decided not to mention it, not to air one second of it. To pretend it didn’t happen. George it happened and one day you will have to deal with it.

TITLE IX
Very quietly the Bush administration is taking another shot at devaluing Title IX. It is beyond me why they would do this. They tried in their first term and failed and now they are shooting at it again. Why? What is the point? There is no explanation other than a conscience effort to hurt women. Why should my son have a better chance to receive a collegiate scholarship then my daughter? Under what pre-tense should my daughter loss a chance at the life lessons that I received and most of you received by playing sports? What is infuriating is that there is no need for this. Title IX is a success. Title IX ha opened doors for women that were previously closed. Title IX has given girls the same life chances and life opportunities as boys. College programs are doing fine. Budgets are tight and Title IX is a strain but that is what happens when you eliminate an unfair system and implement a system with equal opportunity.
To try to cut the legs out of Title IX is deplorable and malicious on the part of sexist power structure that has no explanation other than trying to put women back in their place. There is no need.
The worst part is how they are doing this. They have taken one part of the equation of proportionality, a survey that is conduction to the students on campus and if the results of that come out with a lack of interest in women’s sports by women then the University no longer needs to meet proportionality. It is not coincidence that the one value the administration has decided to give ultimate weight is the one that comes back with the lowest results. It is a survey. What college students fill out surveys? Do the men have to hold to this rule no they don’t – if they did they would fail too.
It is a concerted and malicious effort by the administration to pull back 25 years of progress towards opportunity for women sports. If you have a daughter, know someone who has a daughter, have a sister or have any women that is important in your life you should be outraged.

NIKE TV SPOT

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Did you see Tiger Woods shot on 16 at The Masters on Sunday? Check out the commercial Nike already has out!

FALSE REPORT ON MCMILLAN AND SONICS

The Chicago Sun Times reported that Nate McMillan and the Sonics have come to a verbal agreement. According to my sources this is not accurate.
According to the people I spoke with today, the Sonics contacted Lonnie Cooper, Nate's agent, about 3 to 4 weeks ago about starting the talks.
Nate’s camp stuck with the same plan of action they have had all season long that they wanted to wait until the regular season is over.
The Sonics still plan on retaining Nate and hope to have a deal done quickly once the season is over.
General Manager Rick Sund is also without a contract as of July 1.

LOCKE''S MONDAY MUSINGS

If you think the first few weeks of the season are the same as any other time you are nuts. Check out the 2001 Mariners compared to last years Mariners. What about this year’s Sonics? They won early and then began to believe they were great. They have won a ton of game because they thought they were supposed to.
For this reason the two losses by the Mariners on Saturday and Sunday were real crushers for a team that needs to get some confidence in their ability to win. This team is going to score runs, but it is going to be a night in night out battle to outscore the opponent.
Mike Hargrove doesn’t have a feel for his personnel yet. He made poor moves on Saturday and then on Sunday it was beyond me why he left Matt Thornton in the game. When a bench player or a fringe player gives you a good outing don’t push it. They will eventually revert back to who they truly are. In hoops the biggest mistake the coach makes is when he leaves his bench players on the floor to wrong because they are hot. The extra minute will turn a 18 to 4 run into a 20 to 16 run in no time. The same way Matt Thornton’s three innings of brilliance became ok by the 4th inning.
Ryan Franklin’s outing today was tremendous. He pitched with a point to prove and you have to admire that. His control was impeccable; fifty-one of his first sixty-two pitches were for strikes through seven innings. With the injury to Madritsch and the questionable health of Meche Franklin very well may spend the rest of the year in the pen.
I have been a huge Meche supported, but I am concerned. I wonder if there isn’t something wrong with his arm the way he complains about not getting into a rhythm and the inability to link one inning to the next.
Does anyone remember when the Scout was on Locked on Sports and said that he would move Madritich to the pen because his motion will lead to arm problems if he is a starter? Do the Mariners notice these things?
Final thought on the Mariners. Adrian Beltre is simply awesome to watch at the plate. His strength is unequalled. His plate coverage is terrific and his approach is very consistent. What a signing.
Random thoughts on other items in the sports world …… I have talked to a few scouts who think Nate Robinson could be a late first round pick. Don’t hold your breath I would anticipate a second round selection. Nate needs a better handle and a better shoot …. Brandon Roy will really need to dazzle at Chicago if he is going to be a draftable prospect ….. Tiger Woods looked like he thought he could win the tournament by playing par golf and then DiMarco forced him out of that plan and Woods could never get back into the rhythm …. Woods win was lucky. How else do you explain his chip going in on 16 and DiMarco’s squirming out on 18.
Onto the NBA …… Flip Murray is killing his value every time he plays right now ….. Don’t count on Danny Fortson in the off-season ….. The Rockets have not been the same since the Juwan Howard injury. Since when did he become so vital ….. Denver is going to be a real bear in the playoffs ….. Rick Carlisle in Indiana has to get strong consideration for Coach of the Year ….. Reggie Miller’s swan song is terrific to watch.
Will the Sonics win the division?