Evaluating the NBA Off-Season Moves - Part 1

Using a four step methodology I will give you an evaluation of the off-season NBA movement.

Step 1: The Locke offensive rating. The league average is 10.8. The top 40 players in the NBA rate over 20. A little over 150 players or an average of 5 per team rate as above average offensive players.

Step 2: Was the players team better with the them on the floor than when he was off the floor. Credit www.82games.com for these numbers. Two things are hard to evaluate on traditional numbers, if a player helps his team win and if he plays defense. I believe this is a start. However, it has some flaws. It is best at recognizing a high profile player who has flaws and thus hurts his team or at finding bench players who really give a boost.

Step 3: Whose minutes is he taking.

Step 4: The eye test. We all have an eye for a player that goes beyond numbers.

Using this 4 part test. Here are the evaluations of some of the NBA’s off-season moves.

Rashard Lewis to the Orlando Magic

Step 1: Lewis ranks 20th in the NBA offensively. He is #2 as a small forward. He rates as a 22.7.

Step 2: Lewis had the best on floor/off floo +/- on the Sonics last season.

Step 3: Lewis will take the 31 minutes a night that Grant Hill played and cut into the minutes of Hedo Turkoglu. Hill had a terrible on floor/off floor last year for the Magic (-4.8) whereas Turkoglu seemed to be the opposite for the Magic. Hill was a very effective offensive player at 17.9 and Turkoglu was slightly below average at 9.4. Lewis will be a huge up grade for both.

Step 4: Lewis dramatically changes the Magic at the 3 position. His outside presence will compliment Howard perfectly. He will fulfill the primary scorer allowing Howard to play with less pressure and the other Magic players to be the compliments they are.

Steve Blake to Portland
Step 1: Blake is a dreadful offensive player. He rates at 2.1. A zero rating is designed to be equal to a D-League player entering the NBA. Blake only goes to the free throw line 4.2% of the possessions that end in his hand one of the worst rates in the NBA.

Step 2: Denver was a better team when Blake was on the floor than when he was off the floor. This credits Blake for doing somethings the correct way to help his team.

Step 3: He will take minutes from Jarrett Jack who rates as a 12.7 offensively. However, the Blazers were considerably less good when Jack was on the floor than they were when he was on the bench (nearly 4 points per 48 minutes).

Step 4: Blake plays hard and plays the game correctly. The Blazers aren't sold on Jack so you can see why they signed Blake. However on a team without Zach Randolph they will need some offense out of Blake and he is not capable.

Matt Carroll re-signs with Charlotte

Step 1: Carroll rates a 17.5 one of the better guards in the NBA. The top 40 in the NBA are over 20 and then he is in the next tier.

Step 2: Charlotte was a better team with Carroll on the floor.

Step 3: This is the key because the Bobcats went and acquired Jason Richardson from the Warriors in a bizarre draft day trade. Richardson rates as a 7.9 offensively player, below league average. He is high volume to get his results and Carroll is the opposite. Why the Bobcats would take Carroll's minutes with the acquisition of Richardson is surprising.

Step 4: Carroll plays the game the correct way and would be a brilliant complimentary on a good team.

Grant Hill to the Phoenix Suns
Step 1: Hill rates offensively as a 17.9 and I can only imagine what will happen when he plays with Steve Nash

Step 2: For Orlando Hill didn't work. The Magic were far better when he was on the bench. This is a disturbing trend for an aging player.

Step 3: James Jones played 18 minutes a night for Phoenix last year and had a terrible season. Also, the Suns struggled badly when Boris Diaw was on the floor last season.

Step 4: Hill is a signing that might help the Suns win a championship.

Morris Peterson to the New Orleans Hornets
Step 1: Mo Pet rates as a 12.8 offensively which is nice for a player coming off the bench

Step 2: Mo was an awful fit for Toronto. The Raptors were 8 points better per 48 minutes with Mo on the bench than on the floor. This should be worrisome for the Hornets.

Step 3: Rasual Butler and Desmond Mason played these minutes for the Hornets and both were very poor offensively and the team struggled with both on the floor.

Step 4: This might be a subtle move but it may make a considerable difference for the Hornets.

Darko Millic to Memphis
Step 1: Darko rates as a 3.0 offensively which puts him near the D-League offensively.

Step 2: Orlando was a less good team with Millic on the floor than on the bench.

Step 3: Who does he replace? Memphis had no big man. If Darko takes the minutes of Stromile Swift or rookie Alexander Johnson he can only help but be an upgrade.

Step 4: Seeing Darko last year at times he impacted the game, but in other sequences he was the worst player on the floor.

More to come .........

Where are the Sonics today?

I believe the word is transformation. The upheaval of the roster and the movement to the new era of Sonics basketball is nothing short of spectacular.

The hard part is to evaluate the moves. Nothing with this franchise is happening inside of a basketball bubble other than maybe the moves of Sam Presti. Therefore, for all of us who are desperate for basketball to stay in Seattle (Count me in) it adds a different tint to the glasses by which we view the moves.

One issue can't be forgotten. The team won 31 games last year and its best player was a shooting guard who if history follows its usual course should be on his downward trend.

When the previous basketball front office built the team the hope was that as Ray began to fade, Rashard would be at his apex and be able to pick up the burden of being the man. It could be argued that was close to taking place. Unfortunately, the cast around those two didn't develop into the championship supporting cast in enough time.

My feeling last season was that throughout the year, somewhat due to injuries, somewhat due to the roster make-up, players were out of their rightful spot in the basketball universe. Players will only succeed if they are in a position where they are being asked to do things they are capable of and too often they were being asked to do more. In any sport, when asked to do more a player usually slips behind what they are capable of. That is the essence of sport. That is the essence of roster building.

Would Kevin Durant put everyone back into their basketball universe? That had to be the debate and clearly the belief of this ownership and Sam Presti is no.

Therefore, we start the new era. The team has been turned over, by choice (trading Ray) and by circumstance (Rashard free agency) and is being built entirely around Kevin Durant.

Has this ever worked? Has anyone in NBA history drafted a player and immediately replaced the core of the team. Did it work? Yes, I am in the midst of researching this. Suggestions are welcome.

Wins will be hard to come by in the opening years of the Durant era if the roster stays the same. That is the reality of the NBA. In LeBron's first year the Cavs won just 35 games and the team had Ilgauskas and Boozer. Patrick Ewing won just 23 his first year. Jordan won 38 and Iverson won just 22.

At the same time a culture and a method of how to play and how to build the team will be installed rather than trying to create a quick fix that is fools gold and that is a step in the correct direction.

Specifically to the Ray Allen deal. Ray is one of my most favorite players to watch so I am totally biased. I understand the decision. It is not the move of idiocy in any manner, rather the opposite is true, it makes sense. In addition, Ray is a dominant locker-room personality and if you don't believe he matches the culture then you have to move him. On the flip side, I am not sure he will age the same way other guards have in the past. He is meticulous in his training and professionalism and it will pay off.

Losing Rashard hits me in the gut more because he was Seattle's than because of basketball. We watched him grow and develop. He told me last year, "I feel like Seattle is my mother and I am her son." Again, the turnover of the roster makes sense considering the season last year. If Rashard is going to get max money you have to believe unequivocally that he is capable of being the #1 guy on a team that goes to the Conference Semi-Finals. I love his development, I like the person a ton and I am not sure how I answer that question.

With all that said, the issue is how long will it take? Has it worked before and can it work this time? Most importantly, what does it mean for basketball in Seattle long term?

And that is the issue that blurs all thinking.

Share your thoughts in the comment zone.

Rashard to the Magic -- For the Max

Rashard Lewis gets the max. Is that right? Would you pay him the max? Is he worth it?

The issue is not always how good the player is but rather how the team's salary structure is and where the player fits. I believe if you have two max contract players you better be ready to be in the conference semi-finals each and every year. The Magic will have Howard and Lewis as their max contract players. I am not convinced that makes them a Conference semi-finalist. from that standpoint I wonder if this was the right move by the Magic.

On the other hand, Lewis will be a great help to Howard. The Magic offense last season was putrid, ranking 23rd in the NBA. This was largely because everything revolved around Howard and he isn't ready for that burden yet. Lewis will assist him greatly. His ability to handle to ball allows him to do everything offensively from running the pick and roll, to isolation or creating his own shot.

Howard struggled badly last year when he was double teamed. Lewis will help with that a good deal.

From a Sonics standpoint maybe Rashard was worth the max. With Allen out of the picture, Rashard would have been your one max player and with the collective bargaining agreement you wouldn't have to max out Durant for another four seasons. Therefore, inside the salary structure it might have been feasible.

How Lewis, Durant and Green would have all coexisted will never be answered. It is imperative for the future of the Sonics that nothing impedes the progress of Durant.

The other issue is whether or not Rashard is a max player talentwise. Rashard can get you 20 every night and most importantly gets you 20 every night rather than 14 one night and 28 the next. His consistency is what has elevated his game to the elite of the NBA. According to my offensive numbers he is the best offensive small forward in the NBA. That seems like a stretch, but let's see what happens when he is a number 1 option.

On a personal note, I have covered Rashard longer than any athlete I have ever covered in my career. It has been fantastic to watch him grow from the Houston teenager into a man. He will have his first child this off-season and embark upon a new challenge in Orlando. Rashard is a good guy who deserves good things. From day 1 with Dwane Casey and Nate he worked very hard at the craft and it allowed him to reach this day as a max player.

Regardless of whether or not everyone thinks he is a max player.