SUPER BOWL PREGAME-NOTES AND PREDICTION

The comment zone is open and will be open all night and game. Go Hawks !!!

3:30 can not get here soon enough. Let me give you a few things to chew on between now and then.

When the Seahawks have the ball.

Look for the Hawks to use a lot of 3 wide receiver set. Keep an eye on how the Steelers defend the inside receiver.

Norm Chow, Titans offensive coordinator, told us that the Steelers want to avoid have Troy Polamalu in assigned coverage. How can Mike Holmgren avoid that.

The number 1 key will not be the Joey Porter match-up, but will be whether Robbie Tobeck can handle Pro-Bowler Casey Hampton. Tobeck had a poor game against Dallas and the 3-4 and also had a league leading 10 holding penalties. That must be avoided.

Can the Hawks receivers take advantage of the Steelers corners.

When the Steelers have the ball.

Watch how many players the Hawks have in the box. Where are they aligning the safeties?

I suspect the Hawks will blitz very rarely and the question will be can Roethlisberger find open receivers and make the correct reads.

Rocky Bernard has been brilliant. How will the Steelers block him? Will they double him and leave Wistrom and Fischer in single coverage?

Can the Steelers guards get out onto the Hawks linebackers and dominate them physically?

Overall Game Trends

Tempo early in the game. Watch how fast the Hawks get to the line of scrimmage. A good way to keep an eye on that is if the network is able to get starting line-ups in and if they are able to have long replays. Also watch the play clock.

The Hawks have to score early. They have been brilliant early in games and the Steelers have struggled early in games. The Hawks defense only allowed 1 defensive touchdown all season in the first quarter.

The Steelers are a great passing team. Yes, all the media has talked about is the running game, but the reality is that the Steelers are a outstanding passing team. It is they just don’t do it very often. A big concern has to be the pass coverage of the Hawks linebackers and the overall play of the secondary.

Prediction

The Hawks will score early in this game and take a 10-0 lead. The Steelers will make plays with their passing game in the middle of the field. The game will get closer, but Michael Boulware will get a huge interception that alters the frame of the game and leads to an easy Hawks touchdown.


Boulware will get another turnover on his way to the Super Bowl MVP. The Hawks will prevail 31-17.


Enjoy the day.

SIMULBLOG SONICS V. MAVS

MAVS 110 SONCIS 91 – FINAL SCORE
What is the next move for Bob Hill?
If he doesn’t fix two issues on the defensive end there is no end in sight.
This team is dreadful on the defensive glass. They only got 55% of the defensive boards tonight. The two main culprits are Radmanovic and Petro. The Sonics are the worst defensive rebounding team under Bob Hill since any team since 97-98
Radmanovic was poor again. He lasted just 18 minutes and never made Drik work.
Also the Sonics are not forcing any turnovers at all. They are last in the league in forcing turnovers. You can’t be last in both of those and survive.


Mavs 90 Sonics 74 with 10:00 left in the 4th Quarter
Wham Bham thank you Mham
8-0 run. Ballgame
Erick Dampier is totally dominating the Mavs offensive glass.
The Mavs are really really good.
If anyone sees Rashard Lewis let me know


Mavs 82 Sonics 74 at the end of 3 Quarter
Johan Petro is killing the team with his terrible defensive rebounding. Petro looks like a guy who has played against inferior talent so he never looks for a body to box out and instead he just waits and jumps. What happens is a more athletic or bigger player comes into the paint and gets a better read on the ball and follows it up and in. He cost the Sonics 4 points in the final 3 minutes of the Quarter
Those 4 points are huge.
Rashard is really far off his game tonight.


Mavs 65 Sonics 63 with 6:01 left in the 3rd
Another great bounce back
Collison replaced Vlady and did a really nice job on back to back plays; His offense is a big problem but he is able to do everything else and needs to be on the floor.
Swift is having his best game of the year.


Mavs 63 Sonics 55 with 8:27 left in the 3rd Quarter
This does not have a good feel
How many bounce backs do the Sonics have in them tonight
Vlady is becoming infuriating to watch. His effort has become sporadic play to play. He is being guarded by Nowitski who is not a good defender and he is doing nothing to make him work.


Mavs 54 Sonics 51 at the end of the 1st half
Sonics did a great job of getting the game up tempo in their model
The game has really had very good defense from both sides.
The Sonics offense hasn’t clicked in yet, but they have received great play off the bench.
Within three at the half without a three point shot and without Rashard Lewis scoring a field goal that is a good sign


Mavs 37 Sonics 30 9:22 left in the 3rd Quarter
Nice bounce back by the Sups
They are getting out in the opening court
Wilkins has 8 points in the Q


Mavs 32 Sonics 20 at the end of 1 Quarter
Mavs went on 8-0 and 16-0 runs in the Q
The Sonics offense disappeared again.
They went 10 possessions without a score
Where is Rashard Lewis tonight? He has only one shot attempt and I can’t recall him being a part of any action.



Mavs 22 Sonics 14 with 4:53 left in the 1st Quarter
Last night the Sonics had no bounce back. This is the first shot to bounce back tonight.
The Mavs are so versitile offensively I can't see Seattle finding any way to slow them down.

Sonics 12 Mavs 12 with 7:04 left in the 1st Quarter
Sonics are making a strong effort to push tempo
Vlady has two buckets bouncing back from a miserable night last night
The bench play will be the issue. The Mavs get stronger and Seattle can’t get consistent play




Storylines
1) Can the Sonics bounce back from a miserable game in Houston
2) Stopping the Jason Terry/ Dirk pick and roll
3) Will the Soncis get any consistency from the support players?
4) How good are the Mavs

SIMULBLOG FOR SONICS V.ROCKETS

ROCKETS 100 SONICS 77 -- FINAL SCORE
Bad night for the Sups
Too bad they never got it going offensively because they weren't terrible defensively.
The Sonics got nothing from their supporting cast. Vlady was awful. Flip was Flip. Luke was poor and the bigs were outclassed by Yao Ming

Rockets 98 Sonics 75 with 3:00 left in the 4th quarter
Nothing to be said
A full out blow out.
Sonics didn’t have a match to the Rockets.


Rockets 73 Seattle 57 at the end of 3 quarters
Sonics offense is not rolling tonight.
We have not seen this type of offensive struggle
The lack of offense is hurting the defense and this one is getting away from the Sups in a hurry
McGrady took over and carried this game for the Rockets
Rockets will go to 11-6 with both McGrady and Ming


Rockets 56 Sonics 49 with 6:31 left in the 3rd Quarter
McGrady has 15 straight Rockets points
The Sonics are having major turnover issues tonight
Lewis is really having a hard time getting looks


Rockets 48 Sonics 43 at the Half
Sorry for the late start.
Turnovers are a big surprise tonight,. The Sonics have 9 turnovers in a slow game and the Rockets usually don’t force turnovers. The Sonics have been the best in the NBA with the ball since Hill took over.
The Sonics hit their shots early and then lost their rhythm
Yao Ming changes the game, the Rockets are a much better defensive rebounding team with him.

SIMULBLOG FOR SONICS V. WARRIORS

Sonics 111 Warriors 107 – Final Score
Nothing is ever easy
Sonics were in control but the Warriors did the late game surge that happens every night and made everyone very nervous
Alley opp from Ray to Rashard was the play of the night
Ray Allen had an unreal game
Defensive rebounding of Vlady and Swift was vital to the win
The Sonics offense is amazingly consistent. They are executing at a very high level all night every minute of every night.
The 3rd Quarter was brilliant and carried the night


Sonics 96 Warriors 88 with 5:35 left
Baron Davis is just going to the hoop and the Sups can’t stop him
Rebounding will be the key late
Ray Allen is having one of those special night where he wows you with every shot.


Sonics 93 Warriors 80 with 8:00 left in the 3rd Quarter
Warriors making a run with Flip as the back-up point guard.
No Mateen Cleaves in the second half


Sonics 85 Warriors 71 at the end of 3rd Quarter
That is what we have been looking for.
Perfect is the best word for the 3rd Quarter. Perfect
Warriors go 2 for 21 in the 3rd Quarter
Sonics defensive rating in the 3rd quarter was 35. A far cry from the 165 in the first quarter

Sonics 82 Warriors 67 with 1:40 left in the 3rd Quarter
30-5 run.
WOW !!!! Who are these guys
They are crushing the Warriors in every aspect.
The defense has been strong. The hustle plays are all going one direction.
Rashard’s play at the end of the half may have ignited this
Sonics defense has been strong, the rebounding has been terrific


Sonics 68 Warriors 65 with 6:21 left in the 3rd Quarter
An entirely different Sonics team came out from the locker-room
The defensive rebounding is great
They have a 10-1 rebounding advantage to open the Q
12 to 3 run


Warriors 52 Sonics 47 with 3:00 left in the 2nd Quarter
Nice surge by the Sups. Allen has 13 in the quarter
The Sonics are actually defending a bit, not a lot but more then in the past.
Baron Davis blew up the rhythm of the Warriors
Most importantly the Sonics are rebounding.


Warriors 47 Sonics 40 with 5:55 left in the 2nd Quarter
Ray Allen has all 10 of the Sonics 12 points in the Quarter
Baron Davis got caught in a ball hogging one on one game and it blew up the Warriors flow. You have to be insanely selfish to start going one on one on a defense like the Sonics that has shown no ability to defend the entire shot clock.


Warriors 38 Sonics 28 at the end of the 1st Quarter
Vlady has had some nice moves to the hoop off the dribble so far
The Sonics will be able to score all game. Whether or not they defend at any point will be anyone’s guess
Warriors 38 points in the first quarter is their season high


Warriors 29 Sonics 22 with 1:55 left in the first quarter
Their might be 260 points scored tonight the way this is going.
No one is making any stops
Allen has yet to take a shot and he is out for the quarter
Sonics have only 4 stops in the quarter
Warriors have 4 offensive rebounds on 10 misses.

Warriors 17 Sonics 11 with 7:19 left in the 1st Quarter
Very poor defensive start for the Sonics
The Sonics defensive rebounding has been non-existent. Under Hill they are at 65% if that were to be for an entire season it would be the worst since the Raptors in 1997-98.
Warriors open the game 7 of 11 and have 2 offensive rebounds on their 4 misses.


STORYLINES
1) Pace of the game
2) Interior defense from Seattle
3) Ridnour v. Davis
4) Seattle's defensive rebounding or lack there of

LOOKS LIKE BIG BEN IS LOOSE FOR THE GAME

That may not be the only thing loose in this picture. Nice T-Shirt Ben.

SIMULBLOG FOR SONICS V. BLAZERS

Blazers 116 Sonics 111 – Final Score
Defense has 4 part. Ability to force a turnover, defend the shot, keep people off the foul line and then rebounding the miss
The Sonics failed in the first half to contest shots.
In the second half the Sonics were awful, really really awful on the defensive glass. 20 offensive rebounds by the Blazers in the game.
Offensively, Seattle feel apart in the middle of the 4th Quarter and couldn’t get looks to Ray and Rashard. The rebounding problems forced the Sonics to sit Vlady and play Reggie and Nick and that clogged the floor.
Rashard had a very hard time getting the ball in the 4th Quarter with Rueben Patterson guarding him. Lewis three with :15 left in the game was his first field goal of the 4th quarter.
The Blazers missed a free throw at 106-101 and the Sonics would have had the ball with :45 seconds left and they couldn’t get the rebound.
Losing to the Blazers and the Raptors at home is not good.


Blazers 96 Sonics 89 with 5:41 left in the 4th Quarter
Since Bob Hill took over the Sonics their defensive rebounding % has been 66% worst in the NBA by a good margin. Today they are getting killed.
It is a complicated issue. The young bigs don’t rebound well and if you want to get rebounding then you go to Reggie and then the floor spacing is brutal


Blazers 88 Sonics 84 with 8:41 left in the 4th Quarter
Sonics have Reggie in on Zack. Reggie is pulling out all the tricks. He is pinching, grabbing, snapping, etc. Let’s see how Zack reacts.
He is visibly frustrated but he is still going hard at Reggie.


Blazers 84 Sonics 82 at the end of 3 Quarters
Sonics go on an 8-0 run but are unable to maintain it late.
Can the Sonics defend at all in the final 12 minutes will determine the game
The Sonics are getting crushed on the glass. They have allowed 15 offensive rebounds and have only 19 defensive rebounds.


Blazers 81 Sonics 80 with 2:15 left in the 3rd Qua

rter
I have been saying all night that it will only take 5 minutes of basketball. Falling behind by 7 may mean they need to play 7.
They have just linked 2 minutes of good ball to get back to even.
Nice ball movement lead to a Collison lay-up.


Blazers 77 Sonics 72 with 4:55 left in the 3rd Quarter
If you play more then 10 seconds of offense against the Sonics you will get a very good look at the basket. The Sonics can’t maintain a defensive possession,
Ray Allen is trying very hard to get going, he had just 4 in the first half.
The Sonics who have been very good taking care of the ball are turning it over at a high rate in the 3rd Quarter
The Sonics have no defensive rebounding
Great break by Luke gives Ray a wide open three.


Blazers 58 Sonics 57 at the half
Sonics will win this game. The Blazers are so bad that it will only take 5 minutes of basketball to win,


Blazers 53 Sonics 52 with 2:39 left in the 2nd Quarter
Allen got his first points at the 2:59 mark of the 2nd Quarter
Blazers are still shooting over 60% -- the Sonics are making it easy
There is no defensive rebounding this game.


Blazers 52 Sonics 45 with 4:11 left in the 2nd Quarter
Blazers high points in a half is 61.
This game is really ugly.
The Blazers offense is much improved. They have scored 50 points in 6 of the last 9 first halves.
The Sonics rebounding is so poor that Hill has gone to Reggie Evans.


Blazers 42 Sonics 37 with 7:47 left in the 2nd Quarter
The Blazers open the 2nd quarter on 7-0 run
Seattle defense has to be better. Petro just allowed Jack to drive right at him and never affected the shot.
I am not sure I like Telfair’s game. He is lighting fast but he thinks he can shoot and he can’t.


Sonics 32 Blazers 31 at the end of 1 Quarter
Sonics defensive rotation away from the double teams have been very poor tonight.
Sonics can score at will
Allowing 30 pts to the Blazers is absurd
The Blazers have 14 30 pt Quarters all season. That is 14 out of 179 quarter. 11 of the 14 have come in the first half of games


Blazers 21 Sonics 18 with 5:01 left in the 1st Quarter
The Vlady v. Zach Randolph match-up is interesting. The Sonics are doubling Randolph the minute he gets the ball the Sonics are trying to make Randolph run on the defensive end.
Khryapa can’t guard Rashard Lewis
Bob Hill believes strongly in putting pressure on the defense by constantly attacking and he has the team buying in.
Another Swift tip jam.
There have only been 9 defensive stops in the entire game
Blazers are 10 of 14 from the field

STORYLINES
1) Nate's return
2) Luke's improved play
3) Swifty at center
4) How does Portland score?
5) How does Nate guard the Sonics?

Sorry for not being with you the last few nights. Tech issues killed two of them and a wedding anniversary had me off on Saturday. Let's go tonight.