UPDATE -- I wrote this in December. A similiar story was just written on ESPN. The part of the story John Hollinger didn't include is how amazing it is that the Sonics have won any games at all with a defense this bad. Check out what the rest of the teams that have been at this nadir did in the win total.
Here is what I found.
First, since 1988, year the Minnesota Timberwolves entered the NBA no team has had a defensive rating as bad as the Sonics current rating of 114.6. Defensive rating is figured as points allowed per 100 possessions.
The only teams that were anywhere close are as follows …..
Year Team Def Rating Wins
05-06 Sonics 114.6 ??
92-93 Mavericks 114.3 11
90-91 Nuggets 113.2 20
95-96 76ers 111.6 18
94-95 Pistons 111.6 28
89-90 Magic 111.6 18
97-98 Grizzlies 111.3 19
97-98 Nuggets 111.1 11
94-95 Wolves 111.1 21
30 teams since 1988 have had a defensive rating worse then 110. Three of those teams managed to get to 41 wins but none were above .500
The only real way to judge a defensive team from one year to the next is to judge them in relation to the league average. This accounts for increases and decreases in scoring trends. The Sonics defensive rating is 114.6 and the league average is 102.6. Therefore the Sonics are a –12.
Again this is the worst of any team in the NBA since the 1988 season and maybe longer.
Here are the other terrible teams and their success rate …..
Year Team Def to Avg Wins
05-06 Sonics -12 ???
99-00 Clippers -10.46 15
99-00 Warriors -9.22 19
92-93 Mavericks -9.21 11
97-98 Grizzlies -8.63 19
99-00 Grizzlies -8.63 22
03-04 Magic -8.59 21
99-00 Bucks -8.49 42
90-91 Nuggets -8.49 20
97-98 Nuggets -8.39 11
The only team that won more then 22 games was Ray Allen’s Milwaukee Bucks.
None of this accounts for how good the Sonics are offensively. Therefore, I looked at efficiency differential, offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency and charted 16 years of efficiency differential and its correlation to wins. The Sonics currently have an efficiency differential of –7.2, 4th worst in the league. History says that over the past 16 years teams with a –7.2 win between 21 and 28 games.
The most alarming findings were the following over the last 16 years …
No team with an efficiency differential of –7 or worse has ever won 30 games.
No team with an efficiency differential of –6 or worse has ever won 35 games.
No team with an efficiency differential of –5 or worse has ever won 37 games.
No team with an efficiency differential of –4 or worse has ever won 39 games.
Friday, March 31, 2006
SIMULBLOG FOR SONICS V. LAKERS
Lakers 92 Sonics 83 with 5:20 left in the 4th Quarter
Here is this for weird – Mikki Moore gets tied up on a jump ball and has his finger dislocated. He sprints straight to the locker-room. At this point Moore looks like he can’t make the jump ball so he is going to be DQ’d and the Lakers choose who is jumping. After much consternation Hill tries to send out Wilcox but the Lakers choose Ridnour as they are about to tip Moore comes running out of the locker-room and onto the floor. Now what …. Sonics have to take a time out to make it legal that Moore went to the locker-room. It was mass confusion.
Other notes – Luke is 0 for 8
18 turnovers for the Sonics
Sups got hot from three hitting two in a row to get the game to 6 but it is a false run because you can't live that way.
Kobes 81 Sonics 73 at the end of 3 Quarters
Kobe scored 10 of the final 14 points of the Quarter including a sick bucket at the buzzer
When Kobe gets hot he stops defending and the Sonics didn’t have anyone in the game who could take advantage of it.
Another poor third quarter for the Sonics 29-17 they were outscored
Sonics turnover issue is officially an issue – 15 turnovers in the game and 6 in the quarter
Lakers 73 Sonics 70 2:00 left in the 3rd Quarter
Kobe time. He has scored on the last 3 possessions and has 10 in the quarter
Sonics feel like they are on the verge of getting blown out but it has felt that way most of the night and they have made the plays.
Hill moves Wilkins to the 2 and brings Lewis is at the 3 with Allen resting and the Sups down by 3
Lakers 63 Sonics 61 with 6:57 left in the 3rd Quarter
Can the Sonics get rid of the 3rd Quarter and call it something else.
They have been terrible in the 3rd Q all year
9-0 Lakers run
22-9 run since 2nd Quarter
Lewis and Petro are out – Swift and Wilkins in
Chris Wilcox has missed three in a row.
Lakers got there 1st fast break point at the 9:05 mark of the 3rd Quarter
Kobe in the Quarter is 2 of 3 --- 1 was a fast break dunk.
Sonics 56 Lakers 52 at the half
Lakers 11-4 to the end the half
Sonics offense disappeared in the final moments of the half
Kobe is 4 of 15 when he is guarded by Ray Allen
Kobe is noticeable better tonight when he does not dribble when he has put the ball on the floor he has miss
Sonics 50 Lakers 38 with 3:59 in the 2nd Quarter
Sonics on a 13-2 run
Kobe is just 4 of 14 when being guarded by Ray today
Kobe has 17 on 18 shots and Ray has 16 on 11 shots
Seattle continues to get very good looks on the offensive end
Mikki Moore took a charge from Kobe and it resulted in a Kobe tech
Sonics 37 Lakers 33 with 8:03 left in the 2nd Quarter
Earl is boom or bust tonight. He is going full speed and making great plays and then on the next possession throwing it all over the gym
Swift made a terrible play and then looked very fearful about what he had just done. That is not the correct reaction.
Game feels like it is swinging toward the Lakers
Sonics 28 Lakers 23 at the end of 1 Quarter
The Sonics are pushing the ball and the getting really good looks.
The Lakers are a poor defensive team rotating out to the three point line.
They are pretty good when it comes to covering the paint and the rollers but they are really slow getting out on shooters. If the Sonics stay focused they will get good looks all game.
The Sonics defensive rebounding has not be as good as it needs to be. On the final play Kwame Brown stole a rebound from Robert Swift that the youngster should have never let get away, he was either weak or miss jumped.
Sonics 19 Lakers 15 with 4:31 left in the 1st Quarter
Kobe misses his first three shots and is 2 of 6.
Lakers are going at Rashard with Lamar Odom
Lewis has made two great hustle plays for the Sonics
Wilcox has made two buckets out of isolation plays in the post on Brian Cook
High paced game early on.
Here is this for weird – Mikki Moore gets tied up on a jump ball and has his finger dislocated. He sprints straight to the locker-room. At this point Moore looks like he can’t make the jump ball so he is going to be DQ’d and the Lakers choose who is jumping. After much consternation Hill tries to send out Wilcox but the Lakers choose Ridnour as they are about to tip Moore comes running out of the locker-room and onto the floor. Now what …. Sonics have to take a time out to make it legal that Moore went to the locker-room. It was mass confusion.
Other notes – Luke is 0 for 8
18 turnovers for the Sonics
Sups got hot from three hitting two in a row to get the game to 6 but it is a false run because you can't live that way.
Kobes 81 Sonics 73 at the end of 3 Quarters
Kobe scored 10 of the final 14 points of the Quarter including a sick bucket at the buzzer
When Kobe gets hot he stops defending and the Sonics didn’t have anyone in the game who could take advantage of it.
Another poor third quarter for the Sonics 29-17 they were outscored
Sonics turnover issue is officially an issue – 15 turnovers in the game and 6 in the quarter
Lakers 73 Sonics 70 2:00 left in the 3rd Quarter
Kobe time. He has scored on the last 3 possessions and has 10 in the quarter
Sonics feel like they are on the verge of getting blown out but it has felt that way most of the night and they have made the plays.
Hill moves Wilkins to the 2 and brings Lewis is at the 3 with Allen resting and the Sups down by 3
Lakers 63 Sonics 61 with 6:57 left in the 3rd Quarter
Can the Sonics get rid of the 3rd Quarter and call it something else.
They have been terrible in the 3rd Q all year
9-0 Lakers run
22-9 run since 2nd Quarter
Lewis and Petro are out – Swift and Wilkins in
Chris Wilcox has missed three in a row.
Lakers got there 1st fast break point at the 9:05 mark of the 3rd Quarter
Kobe in the Quarter is 2 of 3 --- 1 was a fast break dunk.
Sonics 56 Lakers 52 at the half
Lakers 11-4 to the end the half
Sonics offense disappeared in the final moments of the half
Kobe is 4 of 15 when he is guarded by Ray Allen
Kobe is noticeable better tonight when he does not dribble when he has put the ball on the floor he has miss
Sonics 50 Lakers 38 with 3:59 in the 2nd Quarter
Sonics on a 13-2 run
Kobe is just 4 of 14 when being guarded by Ray today
Kobe has 17 on 18 shots and Ray has 16 on 11 shots
Seattle continues to get very good looks on the offensive end
Mikki Moore took a charge from Kobe and it resulted in a Kobe tech
Sonics 37 Lakers 33 with 8:03 left in the 2nd Quarter
Earl is boom or bust tonight. He is going full speed and making great plays and then on the next possession throwing it all over the gym
Swift made a terrible play and then looked very fearful about what he had just done. That is not the correct reaction.
Game feels like it is swinging toward the Lakers
Sonics 28 Lakers 23 at the end of 1 Quarter
The Sonics are pushing the ball and the getting really good looks.
The Lakers are a poor defensive team rotating out to the three point line.
They are pretty good when it comes to covering the paint and the rollers but they are really slow getting out on shooters. If the Sonics stay focused they will get good looks all game.
The Sonics defensive rebounding has not be as good as it needs to be. On the final play Kwame Brown stole a rebound from Robert Swift that the youngster should have never let get away, he was either weak or miss jumped.
Sonics 19 Lakers 15 with 4:31 left in the 1st Quarter
Kobe misses his first three shots and is 2 of 6.
Lakers are going at Rashard with Lamar Odom
Lewis has made two great hustle plays for the Sonics
Wilcox has made two buckets out of isolation plays in the post on Brian Cook
High paced game early on.
LOCKE'S BREAKDOWN OF THE M'S STARTING STAFF
I am not sure how you are supposed to equate spring training numbers to regular season performance, but if there is any relation at all the Mariners are in serious trouble.
The Mariners left Arizona with a 8.18 ERA. Sure they pitched a ton of guys that aren’t going to be in the big leagues this season, but on the other hand in the last two nights Moyer allowed 8 runs in 2 innings and Pineiro allowed seven in six innings.
All of this will look at a lot better when the pitchers get to throw in the Northwest cold of April and May in Safeco Field. However, what happens when they hit the road.
<-p> The optimism of this starting staff starts and ends with one man, Felix. There is no reason to believe he will be anything, but terrific. However, the Mariners are still managing him with kid gloves and would like to keep his season total innings pitched, including spring training, under 200.
From there it will be a crap shoot. In reverse order, nothing new pitching coach Rafael Chaves has done has changed Gil Meche and his performance. Dr. Phil is the only hope. My best guess is we get 5 starts from Meche before everyone throws there hands in the air and says I quit. There is nothing in his make-up that makes me believe he will be able to translate into a top line pitcher.
Joel Pineiro, despite his last outing, give the opening day optimists some room. Pineiro’s arm was never right last year and on occasion he showed signs that when it is right he can be terrific again. Truly the Mariners need a #3 quality season out of Pineiro because it is somewhat inevitable that either Washburn or Moyer will fade.
Speaking of Washburn, let’s forget about the contract for a moment. Yes, we all know it was bad, but the Mariners believe that since they paid for the hitters they had to follow the next season paying for pitching. I might not pass debate class if I had to defend it, but that is what they believe. Anyway, Washburn is a terrific inning eater who when blessed with a really good offense will keep you in enough games to win. He might be Aaron Sele before he got old. That is the best I can imagine out of Washburn. I doubt there will be many days when we say, “Washburn controlled that game.”
Lastly, we have Moyer. Can he only pitch at home? My concern with this staff is when Moyer throws up a stinker on the road, like he did every time last year, who is going to be able to stop the bleeding of the bullpen on a road trip.
Final thought. The reality and cruelty of injuries is that the Mariners will need two more starters this year to combine for almost 30 starts. Think about the Yankees last year. That is where this all falls apart. Who is getting those starts? Can they keep the M’s in games? The 30 extra starts is what separates staffs in baseball.
Thursday, March 30, 2006
HUSKIES HAVE A SET-BACK ON THEIR OFFENSIVE LINE
Day 1 for the Huskies had a unusual and unfortunate twist. Tyrone Willingham announced that offensive line coach Mike Denbrock has left the team due to an "unspecified illness." They hope he will be able to return by the end of the spring. In the meantime, former Husky and former GA Kyle Benn has been hired to replace Denbrock.
The offensive line is the #1 concern this Spring and losing the position coach is a tremendous blow. Moreover, the entire spring relies on the offensive line coming through. If the offensive line is in shambles then it become impossible to evaluate both the other offensive players and the opposing defensive players.
On a more positive note, Willingham had a nice quote about JR Hasty on Dawgman.com "J.R. makes yardage," Willingham said. "Talk about not being a sprint champion or this or that, and we take up so much time talking about what they aren't we lose focus on what they do. He gains yardage and understands how to do that, and that's a great quality to have."
CAPTION CONTEST
Put your best caption in the comment zone. Please keep it respectful. I wll post the best ones as they come in.
LOCKE BREAKDOWN OF HUSKIES SPRING FOOTBALL
Huskies start their spring practice. As Dick Baird alterly pointed out last year was about getting acquainted this year is about getting something done. Both the Times and the PI have put together their questions to be answered in the spring pieces.
Here is a the Locked on Sports breakdown of this three week run. Of course, Willingham continues his fan unfriendly approach of closing the practices therefore, we will not be able to relay any insight from the practices to you.
Question #1 is at QB – What I think gets interesting here is that Stanback had no growth for most of last year. Now as a senior that becomes a huge drawback for him in the competition. If he doesn’t show amazing growth and blow DuRocher out then I think he losses this job. On the other hand, it is undeniable he is the best playmaker on the offense and you can have that sitting on the bench. Tim Lappano said on dawgman.com the other day we need to have the ball in #4 hands more often. Yet, as a QB being a senior is going to work against him.
Injuries could cripple the spring, particularly to the offensive line. The numbers are so small that if they lose one or two guys it is going to become impossible to make progress for the offense as a whole. This happened a few years ago and really stunted the growth of Gilbertson’s team.
Position changes. There are gaps all across this roster. Most of the players who played last year were inadequate. The real task of this coaching staff is going to find ways to maximize what may be insufficient talent by placing them in the correct positions.
Someone on the defensive line better step up or have an attitude change. Greyson Gunheim hasn’t shown the balls to be a great pass rusher. Donny Mateaki hasn’t been able to stay healthy or be influential when he is on the field. These guys have to change their make-up or the Huskies need to find guys to replace them.
Here is the scariest thing. There are only 3 newcomers that have any chance of making an impact on this roster. Therefore, there better be a huge surge from last year’s freshman who are now physically ready to make a mark. The guy on the top of that list is JR Hasty
Wednesday, March 29, 2006
SIMULBLOG SONICS V. ROCKETS
Rockets 115 Sonics 87 – FINAL SCORE
Not much to say
Defensively this was joke. The Rockets are the worst offensive team in the NBA without McGrady and the Sups allowed 60+ in the first half.
Finally at the end of the night the Sonics had more field goals then turnovers.
Rockets 76 Sonics not very many with 6:39 left in the 3rd Quarter
Is it a bad sign if you are down 30 and your opponent goes on a 10-0 run.
Watson hits back to back three’s to bring Seattle within 34 – look out here we come
Rockets 64 Sonics 32 at the half
When you have more turnovers then field goals you are in trouble. Particularly if you have played 24 minutes.
Rockets shot 66% and the Sonics have shot 22% in the first half
Allen is 1 for 12.
Rockets 56 Sonics 25 with 2:56 left in the 2nd Quarter
Is there ever a point where you can just go home. Just hit he re-set button and say forget.
This would be the night.
The Sonics have no energy, no flow, no interest.
This is really tough to watch.
The idea of the Rockets scoring 56 points in a half is inconceivable. To do it with 2:56 left is even worse.
Rockets 37 Seattle 18 with 7:59 left in the 2nd Quarter
Seattle missed 14 straight shots
This is absurd. The Rockets are a terrible offensive team. I mean really really terrible and Seattle can’t stop them tonight.
Rockets are shooting 60% and the Sonics are shooting 20%
Ray Allen is 0 for 7
Seattle has 8 turnovers and 6 field goals.
Rockets 29 Sonics 10 at the end of 1 Quarter
This one has gotten away in a hurry
Juwan Howard crushed Chris Wilcox early in the game.
Wilcox really is a poor post defender.
Seattle can’t hit a shot tonight
Neither big has been able to handle Yao Ming
Rashard Lewis is out for tonight's game. Damien Wilkins will start in his place. Over the past two years Wilkins has thrived in this circumstances.
Not much to say
Defensively this was joke. The Rockets are the worst offensive team in the NBA without McGrady and the Sups allowed 60+ in the first half.
Finally at the end of the night the Sonics had more field goals then turnovers.
Rockets 76 Sonics not very many with 6:39 left in the 3rd Quarter
Is it a bad sign if you are down 30 and your opponent goes on a 10-0 run.
Watson hits back to back three’s to bring Seattle within 34 – look out here we come
Rockets 64 Sonics 32 at the half
When you have more turnovers then field goals you are in trouble. Particularly if you have played 24 minutes.
Rockets shot 66% and the Sonics have shot 22% in the first half
Allen is 1 for 12.
Rockets 56 Sonics 25 with 2:56 left in the 2nd Quarter
Is there ever a point where you can just go home. Just hit he re-set button and say forget.
This would be the night.
The Sonics have no energy, no flow, no interest.
This is really tough to watch.
The idea of the Rockets scoring 56 points in a half is inconceivable. To do it with 2:56 left is even worse.
Rockets 37 Seattle 18 with 7:59 left in the 2nd Quarter
Seattle missed 14 straight shots
This is absurd. The Rockets are a terrible offensive team. I mean really really terrible and Seattle can’t stop them tonight.
Rockets are shooting 60% and the Sonics are shooting 20%
Ray Allen is 0 for 7
Seattle has 8 turnovers and 6 field goals.
Rockets 29 Sonics 10 at the end of 1 Quarter
This one has gotten away in a hurry
Juwan Howard crushed Chris Wilcox early in the game.
Wilcox really is a poor post defender.
Seattle can’t hit a shot tonight
Neither big has been able to handle Yao Ming
Rashard Lewis is out for tonight's game. Damien Wilkins will start in his place. Over the past two years Wilkins has thrived in this circumstances.
Spring Training - Morse, Dobbs sent down; Petagine, Borchard make roster
John Hickkey of the PI is reporting that the roster moves have been made.Spring Training - Morse, Dobbs sent down; Petagine, Borchard make roster: "As a result, two players who were not in camp when spring training started, first baseman Roberto Petagine and outfielder Joe Borchard, will make the team. But even they can't afford to be too comfortable -- one of them probably will be the odd man out when Matt Lawton's 10-day steroids supension to start the season has run its course.
Two players who reasonably could be expected to make the team, infielder/outfielder Mike Morse and first baseman/third baseman Greg Dobbs, won't. Morse will be asked to play in left and right and at third, short and first for the Rainiers."
ANALYSIS -- I am surprised that Dobbs couldn't make the roster. He has such a good swing and seemed to have the knack to pinch hit. In addition, I like Morse being sent down. This is what they should have done last year so he could learn the outfield. His natural knack at the plate is something you have to find a spot for once he gets comfortable on the big league level.
Two players who reasonably could be expected to make the team, infielder/outfielder Mike Morse and first baseman/third baseman Greg Dobbs, won't. Morse will be asked to play in left and right and at third, short and first for the Rainiers."
ANALYSIS -- I am surprised that Dobbs couldn't make the roster. He has such a good swing and seemed to have the knack to pinch hit. In addition, I like Morse being sent down. This is what they should have done last year so he could learn the outfield. His natural knack at the plate is something you have to find a spot for once he gets comfortable on the big league level.
In addition on the pitching front the Mariners optioned Nagotte and reassigned Kevin Appier.
Locked on Sports: To foul or not: The answer is simple
Locked on Sports: To foul or not: The answer is simple: "When a basketball team is up by three points in the final seconds of a game, it has the option to foul the other team. This puts the opponent at the free-throw line, eliminating the chance of hitting a game-tying 3-pointer.
Numerous variables go into this decision: how much time is left, rebounding, inbounds plays and more.
However, no matter how you crunch the numbers, the correct move is to foul.
Yet coaches make their decisions based on fear of the worst-case scenario and blow this call almost every time.
Friday night, Washington had a three-point lead with seven seconds to play and decided not to foul a Connecticut player. Instead, Rashad Anderson, a 41-percent shooter from 3-point range, tied the game with 1.8 seconds left.
I can comfortably say had the Huskies fouled instead of trying to prevent the shot, they would have played another game and possibly would be on their way to Indianapolis for the Final Four."
Numerous variables go into this decision: how much time is left, rebounding, inbounds plays and more.
However, no matter how you crunch the numbers, the correct move is to foul.
Yet coaches make their decisions based on fear of the worst-case scenario and blow this call almost every time.
Friday night, Washington had a three-point lead with seven seconds to play and decided not to foul a Connecticut player. Instead, Rashad Anderson, a 41-percent shooter from 3-point range, tied the game with 1.8 seconds left.
I can comfortably say had the Huskies fouled instead of trying to prevent the shot, they would have played another game and possibly would be on their way to Indianapolis for the Final Four."
Tuesday, March 28, 2006
SIMULBLOG SONICS V. GRIZZZ
SONICS 98 GRIZZ 97 – FINAL SCORE
Are you kidding me !!!! Ray Allen does it again. A buzzer beater on an impossible angle. Allen goes 1 on 1 on Eddie Jones one of the best in the game and hits the game winner.
The game changed when down 86-82 the Sups switched Petro onto Gasol. He forced Gasol off the box and Gasol who was brilliant all night finished the night going 1 for 5 with 2 FT over the final 8 minutes of the game.
Not only did Petro play d but he hit two 15 foot jumpers in the final 3 minutes.
Petro in back to back nights guarded Duncan and Gasol. His athleticism could allow him to be a very special defensive player.
Rashard Lewis got hurt with 2:45 left and Sonics to survive
Grizz 93 Soncis 89 with 3:12 left in the 4th Quarter
Huge play – Lewis missed his signature running hook and when he missed he hurt his ankle and the Grizz went the other direction with a 5 on 4 and Miller hit a three.
Miller has back to back buckets
Gasol got his first shot on Petro
We are back into the halfcourt game and Memphis is putting the clamps down defensively.
Earl Waston is finishing
Sonics 89 Grizz 86 with 5:00 left in the 4th Quarter
Gasol scored on the first threee possession while being guarded by Moore
Since they switched Petro onto Gasol he is 0 for 2 with a turnover.
Allen another nasty three
Memphis 80 Soncis 76 at the end of 3 Quarters
Gasol has 38 points
When will the Sonic double him in the 4th?
Sonics 76 Memphis 75 with 1:30 left in the 3rd Quarter
Gasol scored on three straight possessions on Wilcox he has 36
The game is in the half court for Seattle offensively
Eddie Jones has gotten hot
Seattle is dribbling way to much right now.
Swift’s lack of upper body strength has been evident tonight
Sonics 71 Grizz 64 with 5:37 left in the 3rd Quarter
Wilcox three dunks in the Quarter
Grizz scored on the first 5 possessions, but Seattle has recovered.
Sonics need to keep the pace up.
Sonics 59 Grizz 49 at the halftime
Wow !!!
Rebounding edge 26-12
Bench play has been terrific. Mikki Moore came in for Wilcox and played great.
The game changed when Allen was on the bench and Seattle started there run.
Sonics 59 Grizz 49 at the halftime
Wow !!!
Rebounding edge 26-17
Bench play has been terrific. Mikki Moore came in for Wilcox and played great.
The game changed when Allen was on the bench and Seattle started there run.
Sonics 44 Grizz 37 with 5:55 left in the 2nd Quarter
This is remarkable.
The Soncis have been stymied by the Grizz all year and tonight they are taking it to Memphis.
Earl Watson has changed this team moreso then any player
Swift showed his talent with a great rebound and then sprinted the floor and was there for the put-back. Which he missed and then missed the free throws. So he is not there yet.
Sonics 28 Grizz 27 at the end of 1 Quarter
28 points against the Grizz in a Q is remarkable.
Great comeback.
Gasol has been great and the Sonics have been single teamed. The instinct is to not stay with the single team. I would stay with it. He won’t score 20 every quarter and his teammates are getting stale
Sonics 24 Grizz 24 with 2:51 left in the 2:36 left in the 1st Quarter
Holy smokes Sonics have hit 7 of their last 8 and Ridnour has been the offensive punch.
Most amazingly they have done this with Allen on the bench.
Allen has the biggest discrepancy of any player in the NBA in how his team performs when he is on the floor v. off the floor. This is very rare to make a run with Allen on the bench. Suddenly, if you can make a run with Ray on the bench you can win this game.
If the Sonics score on Memphis after scoring on San Antonio then they are for real offensively.
Earl Watson has been terrific
Memphis 14 Gasol 12 Sonics 2 with 8:00 left in the 1st Quarter
Gasol is dominating !!!!!
Gasol really has developed an awesome all around game.
First possession he put it on the floor at Wilcox and hit a 10 footer
Next possession he got doubled on the dribble and hit Akins for a three.
Then later he put it on the floor and went for the reverse lay-up.
The next possession they re-set him in the post and he hit a turnaround.
Then he got it again on the left block and straightened up on Petro and he dribbled on step to the baseline and then hit a step back from behind the backboard.
He has directly contributed 12 of the 14 points.
Lewis who has been terrible all year against the Grizz has not been very good today
HOW DO THE SONICS BIG COMPARE !!!!
I thought it would be interesting to see how the Sonics two young bigs were performing at a per 40 minute rate compared to the other young bigs in the NBA. Also, I have included Yao Ming as the All-Star.
These numbers for Swift and Petro are since Hill took over.
YOUNG BIGS PER 40 MINUTES:
These numbers for Swift and Petro are since Hill took over.
YOUNG BIGS PER 40 MINUTES:
Player Points Rebounds Blocks
--------------------------------------
Yao Ming 25.4 11.9 1.9
Robert Swift 12.8 11.1 2.6
Johan Petro 12.0 10.0 1.5
Channing Frye 20.4 9.5 1.2
Dwight Howard 17.0 13.3 1.6
Emeka Okafor 15.8 11.9 2.3
Andrew Bogut 12.4 10.1 1.3
Tyson Chandler 7.8 13.5 1.9
Chris Kaman 14.1 11.5 1.8
Andris Biedrins 10.3 10.4 2.0
Rafael Aruajo 7.3 10.0 0.4
Andrew Bynum 9.4 9.7 2.5
GREAT NEWS ON MARINERS FRONT
According to the Seattle P-I Spring Training Blog Jeremy Reed wrist is not broken. According to the story the wrist problem is an old fracture not a break. While opening day may be a long shot it is not out of the question that he could avoid going on the DL.
MORE MORRIS IN SEATTLE
After visting numerous teams Maurice Morris found a soft market and has returned to Seattle signing a three year contract to be Alexander's back-up. The Hawks had hoped that Morris would return the entire time, but allowed him to test the market and see if he had other opportunites. The market has been soft for all running backs, starters and back-ups alike.
This is good news for the Hawks. Morris knows the system and the role. Moreover, he is gaining experience each year and is a valuable asset to the Hawks. He will likely recieve more and more time as Alexander ages.
KELVIN SAMPSON NOT MARK FEW AT INDIANA
According to today's Indianapolis Star ... A source close to Mark Few said Monday the Gonzaga coach has been contacted and told he is not considered a candidate at Indiana.
That would tell me that Indiana is very close to making their hire. UPDATE --- In fact they are and the Hoosiers have hired former Cougar Head Coach Kelvin Sampson from Oklahome. Nothing like losing in the first round in back to back years and picking up a new gig.
Sunday, March 26, 2006
Felix Hernandez forced to sit by pain from shin splints
A minor set-back for Felix. Here is the Seattle-PI report.
Felix Hernandez forced to sit by pain from shin splints: "Prized Seattle prospect Felix Hernandez, who has been experiencing some right leg pain, has been scratched from his Wednesday start.
Hernandez has developed a mild case of shin splints, and the Mariners want to make sure their 19-year-old No. 5 starter doesn't get any worse. He's been scratched from all running exercises for the time being, although he can do regular arm and upper-body work."
Felix Hernandez forced to sit by pain from shin splints: "Prized Seattle prospect Felix Hernandez, who has been experiencing some right leg pain, has been scratched from his Wednesday start.
Hernandez has developed a mild case of shin splints, and the Mariners want to make sure their 19-year-old No. 5 starter doesn't get any worse. He's been scratched from all running exercises for the time being, although he can do regular arm and upper-body work."
LOCKE'S NUMBERS DEFEAT MITCH THE GURU
UPDATED -- 6:49 PM ON SUNDAY
It is over !!! Locke's numbers and Mitch the guru both should get an award for inadequacy. Nonetheless, neither bracket has any more chance to score points. That means that the NUMBERS HAVE DEFEATED THE GURU. Certainly, it wasn't a win of elegance but nonetheless it was a win.
Therefore, after making fun. mocking and general disrespect to the concept of picking a bracket via history and the numbers, Mitch Levy will be writing a $200 check to the scholarship fund of Four Winds Westward Ho Summer Camp located on Orcas Island.
FINAL 4
Mitch's Final 4 -West Virginia, Memphis, UConn, Boston College
Locke's Final 4 -Texas, Kansas, UConn, Florida
TEAMS TO ROOT AGAINST
Team's Mitch has in the Elite 8 that Locke's numbers don't --West Virginia, Memphis, Indiana, Michigan St., Boston College.
Team's Mitch has in the Sweet 16 that Locke's numbers don't -- LSU,Indiana, Pittsburgh, Michigan St., Tennessee,Georgetown
Current Standings
Mitch's Teams left as of the Sweet 16 = 11
Locke's Teams left as of the Sweet 16 = 10
Mitch's Teams left as of the Elite 8 = 3
Locke's Teams left as of the Elite 8 = 5
Big Games in the Sweet 16
Texas (Locke) v. West Virginia (Mitch) --- Locke wins
Villanova (Locke) v. Boston College (Mitch) -- Locke wins
Memphis (Mitch) v. Bradley (none) -- Mitch wins
UCLA (Locke) v. Gonzaga (none) -- Locke wins
It is over !!! Locke's numbers and Mitch the guru both should get an award for inadequacy. Nonetheless, neither bracket has any more chance to score points. That means that the NUMBERS HAVE DEFEATED THE GURU. Certainly, it wasn't a win of elegance but nonetheless it was a win.
Therefore, after making fun. mocking and general disrespect to the concept of picking a bracket via history and the numbers, Mitch Levy will be writing a $200 check to the scholarship fund of Four Winds Westward Ho Summer Camp located on Orcas Island.
FINAL 4
Mitch's Final 4 -
Locke's Final 4 -
TEAMS TO ROOT AGAINST
Team's Mitch has in the Elite 8 that Locke's numbers don't --
Team's Mitch has in the Sweet 16 that Locke's numbers don't -- LSU,
Current Standings
Mitch's Teams left as of the Sweet 16 = 11
Locke's Teams left as of the Sweet 16 = 10
Mitch's Teams left as of the Elite 8 = 3
Locke's Teams left as of the Elite 8 = 5
Big Games in the Sweet 16
Texas (Locke) v. West Virginia (Mitch) --- Locke wins
Villanova (Locke) v. Boston College (Mitch) -- Locke wins
Memphis (Mitch) v. Bradley (none) -- Mitch wins
UCLA (Locke) v. Gonzaga (none) -- Locke wins
SIMULBLOG FOR SONICS V. SPURS
SONICS 106 SPURS 102 --- FINAL SCORE
The game of the year other then in Phoenix
The Sonics play toe for toe with the World Champions and avoid a collapse with a big three by Allen down the stretch.
Petro made a huge defensive play knocking the ball away from Duncan on an inbound to prevent the Spurs from getting a final shot
The Sonics were on the verge of a collapse. Luke Ridnour had four turnovers in the final 2 minutes and it lead to the Spurs getting the lead.
Allen then went one on one on Bowen and nailed a three to win it.
Controversial call a moment before when Horry intercepted a pass but either fell or was knocked out of bounds and the officials ruled him out of bounds to give the Sonics another shot.
An amazing win.
The Sonics offense was better then the Spurs defense and the Sonics showed a defensive approach that they hadn’t had all season.
Does this make you believe?
Sonics 100 Spurs 93 with 2:37 left in the 4th Quarter
Oh my oh my oh my
Luke hits Wilcox on his way to the basket but he misses and JOHAN PETRO FINISHES IT OFF WITH AUTHORITY ---- WOW!!!
A few plays before the Sonics defense forces a turnover and the Sups get a fast break Ridnour leads the break, he wants to go to Wilcox on the left but the spacing is bad and somehow some way he sees Lewis trailing and leaves it behind in traffic for LEWIS WHO FINISHES IT OFF WITH AUTHORITY
Sonics 9 of 13 in the Quarter
Sonics 98 Spurs 93 with 3:26 left in the 4th Q
This is night that makes you believe
This is a night that makes you renew season tickets
This is a night that makes all of the struggles seem distant
The Sonics are outplaying the Spurs on both ends of the floor
Sonics 90 Spurs 85 with 6:43 left in the 4th Quarter
This the game of the year. The intensity is great. The Spurs are the best and Seattle is playing right with the,
Official Jimmy Clark has a good sense of humor, Horry was disputing a foul call and Clark says to the scorers table -- “he bumped and he hit hit him and then he blocked the shot but that was too late.”
Sonics 84 Spurs 78 with 9:25 in the 4th Quarter
What a start to the 4th
Petro gets back to back baskets
Allen buries a transition three. 6 already in the 4th quarter – 30 for the game.
DON’T PISS OFF THE GENTLEMEN HE WILL GET YOU. HE WILL BRING THE FIGHT.
Great defense on Parker has highlighted the 4th quarter.
Sonics 74 Spurs 74 at the end of 3 Quarters
Great atmosphere here at Key Arena tonight.
Luke Ridnour is playing very well tonight. He is getting around screens with the ball very quickly. He is aggressive into the lane. He is playing even with Tony Parker right now.
Plus, he has hit some big outside shots.
However, he just made a huge brain cramp trying to catch a pass that was going out of bounds and he stepped on the endline – the Sonics would have got the ball underneath their own basket – it didn’t cost the Sonics
The Sonics defensive game plan on Manu Ginobili is very very strong. They are doubling him and getting ball out of his hand to discontinue his ability to probe the defense.
Seattle is playing hard enough to get the Spurs frustrated.
Spurs 65 Sonics 62 with 4:35 left in the 3rd Quarter
Ray Allen back to back threes.
Seattle is really playing well tonight. Mainly on the defensive end.
Allen hit a three a moment ago and it was the first foul called on the Spurs in the entire quarter. Seattle has 7.
Spurs 61 Sonics 55 with 5:50 left in the 3rd Quarter
Spurs have come out of the half and run every play to Duncan in the post trying to go at Chris Wilcox.
The other play the Spurs are living on is a pick n roll with Parker and the non-Duncan big. This forces the Sonics to leave Duncan and to help on rotation. That is a tough quandary. It is great coaching moves to make a player like Nazr Mohhamed have value.
Swift just got three fouls on two possessions and they were tickty tact. They will go away in a few years.
Spurs 46 Sonics 42 at the half
Robert Swift is going to be really good if he wants to be.
I am watching him and I can’t find anything that he physically can’t do.
He has great hoops, good hands, he needs better balance but his balance is very good.
He is slowing down in the post offensively. He has very defensive instincts to block shots.
What he needs is time on the floor, he needs to understand the game and he needs to get the respect of everyone around him.
The Sonics have responded well to the Bowen incident and are playing right with the Spurs. This has been impressive over the last 4 minutes of the first half.
Parker has been quiet.
Spurs 39 Sonics 28 with 5:45 left in the 2nd Quarter
Bruce Bowen is a thug
Ray Allen was working one on one on Bowen and when he went they made contact and Allen got an offensive foul. But being the dirtiest player in the NBA Bowen always gets underneath his man and they fell to the ground. On the ground Bowen then kicked Allen in the back. Allen got up and was pissed. A tech was called on Allen and that was the correct call. A tech was called on Bowen.
The issue for me is that Bowen gets underneath guys and puts the shooters legs and ankles in jeopardy.
Someone should pop him.
Spurs 28 Sonics 20 at the end of 1 Quarter
Great shooting on both sides – Spurs at 55% Sonics 53%
Sonics commit 6 turns
Game is at Seattle’s pace.
Wilcox 7 leads the Sups – Duncan 10 leads the Spurs.
Spurs 28 Sonics 18 with 2:04 left in the 1st Quarter
Tony Parker is unguardable
The Spurs scored on 9 straight possessions
Lewis picks up two offensive fouls in the first quarter – 4:46 left in the Q he has to leave
Now the question is will he ever get back into the game mentally. He spent most of the next time-out lobbing with the officials.
When Lewis leaves and the Sonics have Watson, Ridnour and Wilkins on the floor the Sonics can’t shoot.
Wilcox is playing against Duncan and he seems fearless.
Spurs 17 Sonics 13 with 6:46 left in the 1st Quarter
Spurs are up 4 and Pop takes the time-out becomes he is furious.
The Spurs live on a different planet then the rest of the league
The Sonics hit 5 of their first 7 before turning it over on the next three possessions.
The Sups are struggling with their rotations. They are leaving too many guys wide open in their sweet spot.
Storylines
1) The best in the world are in town
2) Sonics pace v. Spurs pace
3) Best defense in the league and one of the best of all time against the worst in the league and maybe the worst of all time.
The game of the year other then in Phoenix
The Sonics play toe for toe with the World Champions and avoid a collapse with a big three by Allen down the stretch.
Petro made a huge defensive play knocking the ball away from Duncan on an inbound to prevent the Spurs from getting a final shot
The Sonics were on the verge of a collapse. Luke Ridnour had four turnovers in the final 2 minutes and it lead to the Spurs getting the lead.
Allen then went one on one on Bowen and nailed a three to win it.
Controversial call a moment before when Horry intercepted a pass but either fell or was knocked out of bounds and the officials ruled him out of bounds to give the Sonics another shot.
An amazing win.
The Sonics offense was better then the Spurs defense and the Sonics showed a defensive approach that they hadn’t had all season.
Does this make you believe?
Sonics 100 Spurs 93 with 2:37 left in the 4th Quarter
Oh my oh my oh my
Luke hits Wilcox on his way to the basket but he misses and JOHAN PETRO FINISHES IT OFF WITH AUTHORITY ---- WOW!!!
A few plays before the Sonics defense forces a turnover and the Sups get a fast break Ridnour leads the break, he wants to go to Wilcox on the left but the spacing is bad and somehow some way he sees Lewis trailing and leaves it behind in traffic for LEWIS WHO FINISHES IT OFF WITH AUTHORITY
Sonics 9 of 13 in the Quarter
Sonics 98 Spurs 93 with 3:26 left in the 4th Q
This is night that makes you believe
This is a night that makes you renew season tickets
This is a night that makes all of the struggles seem distant
The Sonics are outplaying the Spurs on both ends of the floor
Sonics 90 Spurs 85 with 6:43 left in the 4th Quarter
This the game of the year. The intensity is great. The Spurs are the best and Seattle is playing right with the,
Official Jimmy Clark has a good sense of humor, Horry was disputing a foul call and Clark says to the scorers table -- “he bumped and he hit hit him and then he blocked the shot but that was too late.”
Sonics 84 Spurs 78 with 9:25 in the 4th Quarter
What a start to the 4th
Petro gets back to back baskets
Allen buries a transition three. 6 already in the 4th quarter – 30 for the game.
DON’T PISS OFF THE GENTLEMEN HE WILL GET YOU. HE WILL BRING THE FIGHT.
Great defense on Parker has highlighted the 4th quarter.
Sonics 74 Spurs 74 at the end of 3 Quarters
Great atmosphere here at Key Arena tonight.
Luke Ridnour is playing very well tonight. He is getting around screens with the ball very quickly. He is aggressive into the lane. He is playing even with Tony Parker right now.
Plus, he has hit some big outside shots.
However, he just made a huge brain cramp trying to catch a pass that was going out of bounds and he stepped on the endline – the Sonics would have got the ball underneath their own basket – it didn’t cost the Sonics
The Sonics defensive game plan on Manu Ginobili is very very strong. They are doubling him and getting ball out of his hand to discontinue his ability to probe the defense.
Seattle is playing hard enough to get the Spurs frustrated.
Spurs 65 Sonics 62 with 4:35 left in the 3rd Quarter
Ray Allen back to back threes.
Seattle is really playing well tonight. Mainly on the defensive end.
Allen hit a three a moment ago and it was the first foul called on the Spurs in the entire quarter. Seattle has 7.
Spurs 61 Sonics 55 with 5:50 left in the 3rd Quarter
Spurs have come out of the half and run every play to Duncan in the post trying to go at Chris Wilcox.
The other play the Spurs are living on is a pick n roll with Parker and the non-Duncan big. This forces the Sonics to leave Duncan and to help on rotation. That is a tough quandary. It is great coaching moves to make a player like Nazr Mohhamed have value.
Swift just got three fouls on two possessions and they were tickty tact. They will go away in a few years.
Spurs 46 Sonics 42 at the half
Robert Swift is going to be really good if he wants to be.
I am watching him and I can’t find anything that he physically can’t do.
He has great hoops, good hands, he needs better balance but his balance is very good.
He is slowing down in the post offensively. He has very defensive instincts to block shots.
What he needs is time on the floor, he needs to understand the game and he needs to get the respect of everyone around him.
The Sonics have responded well to the Bowen incident and are playing right with the Spurs. This has been impressive over the last 4 minutes of the first half.
Parker has been quiet.
Spurs 39 Sonics 28 with 5:45 left in the 2nd Quarter
Bruce Bowen is a thug
Ray Allen was working one on one on Bowen and when he went they made contact and Allen got an offensive foul. But being the dirtiest player in the NBA Bowen always gets underneath his man and they fell to the ground. On the ground Bowen then kicked Allen in the back. Allen got up and was pissed. A tech was called on Allen and that was the correct call. A tech was called on Bowen.
The issue for me is that Bowen gets underneath guys and puts the shooters legs and ankles in jeopardy.
Someone should pop him.
Spurs 28 Sonics 20 at the end of 1 Quarter
Great shooting on both sides – Spurs at 55% Sonics 53%
Sonics commit 6 turns
Game is at Seattle’s pace.
Wilcox 7 leads the Sups – Duncan 10 leads the Spurs.
Spurs 28 Sonics 18 with 2:04 left in the 1st Quarter
Tony Parker is unguardable
The Spurs scored on 9 straight possessions
Lewis picks up two offensive fouls in the first quarter – 4:46 left in the Q he has to leave
Now the question is will he ever get back into the game mentally. He spent most of the next time-out lobbing with the officials.
When Lewis leaves and the Sonics have Watson, Ridnour and Wilkins on the floor the Sonics can’t shoot.
Wilcox is playing against Duncan and he seems fearless.
Spurs 17 Sonics 13 with 6:46 left in the 1st Quarter
Spurs are up 4 and Pop takes the time-out becomes he is furious.
The Spurs live on a different planet then the rest of the league
The Sonics hit 5 of their first 7 before turning it over on the next three possessions.
The Sups are struggling with their rotations. They are leaving too many guys wide open in their sweet spot.
Storylines
1) The best in the world are in town
2) Sonics pace v. Spurs pace
3) Best defense in the league and one of the best of all time against the worst in the league and maybe the worst of all time.
Friday, March 24, 2006
REVIEW OF THE HUSKIES CRUSHING LOSS
I just finished re-watching the game. Sports fans in the State of Washington are the Job of Sports Fans. This is absurd, when does are day come. Here is the breakdown.
You have to foul. We have talked about this one thousand times on Locked on Sports. It is a mathmatical no brainer. If you lead by three with less then 7 seconds you have to foul. It is criminal not to and it cost Washington the game. This is a classic example of coaches coaching scared. Coaches don't foul because they are scared of the worst case scenario no matter how rare it might be. Coaches need to be smarter. In this case Lorenzo cost Washington a trip to the Elite 8 because he coached out of fear from a past experience.
The amount of mistakes down the stretch by Washington were unreal. Again we have talked all year on the coaches show about how do you maintain aggressiveness and be smart. The Huskies failed this balance and it cost them the game. Here is the sequence.
Up 6 with 1:28 left the Huskies have the ball on a rebound but in traffic Mike Jensen can't get the ball out and throws a bad pass to Dentmon out of bounds. The next play leads to Bobby Jones fouling out.
Up 5 with :35 seconds left after a Jensen miss UConn pushes it up and Jensen sags into the lane leaving UConn's best three point shooter open for a bomb.
Up 4 with :11 seconds left Jensen fouls Williams on a drive and gives up and three point play to make it a one point game. The extra point becomes the difference on the final possession. Jensen fouls out.
Up 3 the Huskies decided not to foul and we head to overtime.
In overtime, the Officials miss a goaltending, but down 2 the Huskies panicked when they got gift and threw the ball away.
The Huskies coaches did a great job with their defensive game plan. They doubled the pick n roll and forced the ball out of the hands of UConn's primary ball handlers. It was fantastic. It forced 26 turnovers and for all intent and purpose it won the game.
Jamal Williams was fantastic. His one on one game was unstoppable. He kept the Dawgs in the game when Roy was on the bench.
The real killer is that Washington played great and matched UConn every step of the way. It proves Washington was good enough go to the Final Four and they may have been good enough to win it.
UConn really struggled on the offensive end. I said on 950,KJR today that if the Dawgs controlled the defensive glass they could stop UConn and for the most part they did that.
On NBA Draft day when someone drafts Rudy Gay over Brandon Roy because of potential it will be a crime. Roy showed what a night in and night out stud he is again in this game. Gay showed how he rarely turns on the switch.
Ryan Appelby made a great steal and there was a defender in his way that forced him to curl out. It is a minor deal, but that is a great play by the UConn player. He threw the pass away and instead of sulking he quickly stepped out on the floor and cut off Appleby's path. It kept the play alive and forced the turnover. Little Things.
One of the key times of the game was early in the second half when Washington had a real chance to blow it out and they got greedy shooting long threes and missed all of them. With 17:00 left Washington forced four straight turnovers up 8 and weren't able to convert any of the four. Roy missed a drive,Jones missed a three, Williams missed a fade away and Dentom missed a deep quick three. All bad shots. Two of those and Washington would have been up 12 or more and rolling. Then two possessions later up 10 Roy missed a lay-up off a turnover that would have put them up 12. Then another turnvoer and the Huskies threw it away on an in-bound pass which lead to a Roy foul that would be costly. This was the key to the whole game.
The double techinical that knocked Roy out of the game for 6 minutes was on the upcoming sequence. The officials didn't have to call it, but it was a mistake by Roy to be in that situation.
Finally, this is another great season for Romar and Washington. To make the Sweet Sixteen in back to back years is really special. The pain comes because last year if Washington had played Louisville 10 times they would have lost 9 of them, if this year's team played UConn 10 times I think they would win 6 of them.
Up 6 with 1:28 left the Huskies have the ball on a rebound but in traffic Mike Jensen can't get the ball out and throws a bad pass to Dentmon out of bounds. The next play leads to Bobby Jones fouling out.
Up 5 with :35 seconds left after a Jensen miss UConn pushes it up and Jensen sags into the lane leaving UConn's best three point shooter open for a bomb.
Up 4 with :11 seconds left Jensen fouls Williams on a drive and gives up and three point play to make it a one point game. The extra point becomes the difference on the final possession. Jensen fouls out.
Up 3 the Huskies decided not to foul and we head to overtime.
In overtime, the Officials miss a goaltending, but down 2 the Huskies panicked when they got gift and threw the ball away.
SIMULBLOG SONICS V. NUGGETS
NUGS 117 SONICS 104 -- FINAL SCORE
Really bad sequence when the Sonics got within 8 with 5 minutes left ended the game.
Lewis took a quick 3 and then the defense didn't get back on the next possession the Sonics missed three threes.
Turnovers killed the Sups in the third
Good night for Swift and Ridnour
Reggie Evans has to be smiling ear to ear
Sonics 105 Nugs 95 with 5:23 left in the 4th Quarter
Ray and Rashard are still not rolling.
Another strong game for Robert Swift
Sonics cut it to 8 but can't make the plays to get closer
The bad Earl has been present for most of the night, 4 of 12 and 5 turns
The Soncis have been brutal at the line.
'Nugs 89 Sonics 79 at the end of 3 quarters
The defense looks bad becaus they allowed another 30 point quarter but it was the offensive that was killing Seattle with the turnover and giving the easy looks.
If anyone has seen Ray and Rashard can you let them know the 4th quarter has started.
Nuggets 69 Sonics 63 with 7:14 left in the 3rd Quarter
Lewis and Allen are combined for 3 of 18
The Sonics have been terrible with the ball in the Quarter. I mean amazingly bad. They have thrown balls around the floor without any pressure and the Nuggets are getting the easy baskets they didn't get in the first half.
Another bad third quarter for the Sonics.
Nuggets 57 Sonics 55 == at the half
Sonics in the game despite Ray not having a good game.
Where is Rashard Lewis -- 0 for in teh first half.
Ray and Rashard are
Sonics defense has been respectable.
Reggie Evans is tearing the Sonics up. He has 16. You knew this would happen when they met for the first time.
Damien Wilkins is having a very nice night.
Sonics 40 Nugs 35 wiht 6:42 left in the 2nd Quarter
Ray Allen gets his first field goal with 7:37 left in the 2nd Quarter
Nugs are trying to post Patterson on Allen in the post. Not sure this is bad because it takes the ball out of the hands of Anthony.
Chris Wilcox has three fouls. Ouch.
Ridnour with 10 points
Sonics 27 Nuggets 27 at the end of 1 Quarter
Ray and Rashard are 0 for the quarter. This again is a sign of how much better the Sonics are. If this had happened earlier in the season they would be down 20. Then again they may be if those guys don't get going in the near future.
Wilcox has 9 to lead the Sonics.
Anthony has 10 but 3 of 8 shooting. He must be kept off the free throw line and he has 4 free throws so far.
Sonics 22 Nuggets 16 with 3:05 left in the 1st Quarter
The Ridnour and Watson line-up leading teh Soncis to the lead
Robert Swift is playing well tonight. He seems to be better on the road.
Sonics are doing a nice job of protecting the rim
Nuggets 16 Sonics 15 with 5:34 left in the 1st Quarter
Chris Wilcox is at it again. He runs the floor so well that other teams power forwards can't keep up. They meekily are seen pointing at Wilcox as though someone has to pick him up.
For a player that Clipper people said was a low basketball IQ player he has a terrific knack for getting open.
Really bad sequence when the Sonics got within 8 with 5 minutes left ended the game.
Lewis took a quick 3 and then the defense didn't get back on the next possession the Sonics missed three threes.
Turnovers killed the Sups in the third
Good night for Swift and Ridnour
Reggie Evans has to be smiling ear to ear
Sonics 105 Nugs 95 with 5:23 left in the 4th Quarter
Ray and Rashard are still not rolling.
Another strong game for Robert Swift
Sonics cut it to 8 but can't make the plays to get closer
The bad Earl has been present for most of the night, 4 of 12 and 5 turns
The Soncis have been brutal at the line.
'Nugs 89 Sonics 79 at the end of 3 quarters
The defense looks bad becaus they allowed another 30 point quarter but it was the offensive that was killing Seattle with the turnover and giving the easy looks.
If anyone has seen Ray and Rashard can you let them know the 4th quarter has started.
Nuggets 69 Sonics 63 with 7:14 left in the 3rd Quarter
Lewis and Allen are combined for 3 of 18
The Sonics have been terrible with the ball in the Quarter. I mean amazingly bad. They have thrown balls around the floor without any pressure and the Nuggets are getting the easy baskets they didn't get in the first half.
Another bad third quarter for the Sonics.
Nuggets 57 Sonics 55 == at the half
Sonics in the game despite Ray not having a good game.
Where is Rashard Lewis -- 0 for in teh first half.
Ray and Rashard are
Sonics defense has been respectable.
Reggie Evans is tearing the Sonics up. He has 16. You knew this would happen when they met for the first time.
Damien Wilkins is having a very nice night.
Sonics 40 Nugs 35 wiht 6:42 left in the 2nd Quarter
Ray Allen gets his first field goal with 7:37 left in the 2nd Quarter
Nugs are trying to post Patterson on Allen in the post. Not sure this is bad because it takes the ball out of the hands of Anthony.
Chris Wilcox has three fouls. Ouch.
Ridnour with 10 points
Sonics 27 Nuggets 27 at the end of 1 Quarter
Ray and Rashard are 0 for the quarter. This again is a sign of how much better the Sonics are. If this had happened earlier in the season they would be down 20. Then again they may be if those guys don't get going in the near future.
Wilcox has 9 to lead the Sonics.
Anthony has 10 but 3 of 8 shooting. He must be kept off the free throw line and he has 4 free throws so far.
Sonics 22 Nuggets 16 with 3:05 left in the 1st Quarter
The Ridnour and Watson line-up leading teh Soncis to the lead
Robert Swift is playing well tonight. He seems to be better on the road.
Sonics are doing a nice job of protecting the rim
Nuggets 16 Sonics 15 with 5:34 left in the 1st Quarter
Chris Wilcox is at it again. He runs the floor so well that other teams power forwards can't keep up. They meekily are seen pointing at Wilcox as though someone has to pick him up.
For a player that Clipper people said was a low basketball IQ player he has a terrific knack for getting open.
Thursday, March 23, 2006
HOW ARE THE NUMBERS DOING?
In the meantime, how are the numbers doing. The numbers really are about picking the Sweet 16, the Elite 8 and the Final 4. Therefore, I will update based on who is alive in those.
Sweet 16 (11 of 16)-- Duke, Texas A&M, West Virginia, Texas, Memphis, Kansas, SDSU, UCLA, UConn, Illinois, UNC, Withita St, Villanova, Boston College, Florida and Ohio State.
Elite 8 (5 of the 8) --Duke, Texas, Kansas, UCLA, UConn, UNC, Villanova and Florida
Final (2 still alive) --Texas,Kansas, UConn, Florida
Sweet 16 (11 of 16)-- Duke,
Elite 8 (5 of the 8) --
Final (2 still alive) --
Wednesday, March 22, 2006
SIMULBLOG FOR SONICS V. BUCKS
Sonics 114 Bucks 105 --- FINAL SCORE
This is a totally different team. They played with strong energy all night. They have great depth even with the injuries and the guys understand how to play together,
Chris Wilcox had a career high 30 points and a double-double. He was magnificent. Teams really are going to have to game plan to his high wire act. You can’t leave him for a moment when the Sonics get into the paint.
The defense was very good all game. The Sonics guarded the rim very well. Their were two back to back plays late in the game when the Bucks drove the left baseline and beat their man but then had their shot altered by the long help defense of the Sonics big men.
Earl Watson finished the game and did it with a flash.
Ridnour played well today. I would rather have him then TJ Ford.
This is a good team win and a sign that there are positive days ahead
Sonics 94 Bucks 90 with 5:56 left in the 4th Quarter
With 8:44 left Allen was 3 of 13 since then he is 1 for 1
With 8:44 left Redd was 8 of 19 since he is 0 for 2
Redd and Allen both have 5 fouls with 5:56 left in the 4th
Eli Roe, one of the officials is a zoo. He may be the worst in the NBA. He is having a miserable night.
So much of the Sonics offense is free lance open floor that when they game gets tight they go to half court sets and that means that Wilcox and the bigs don’t get those penetration opportunities or open floor easy looks. Instead, the Sonics work hard to get Allen and Lewis there looks.
Dan Gadzuric is dominating the Sonics game tonight.
Sonics 83 Bucks 75 at the end of 3rd Quarter
Rashard Lewis welcome back. 15 points in the quarter for Lewis
Sonics are much more aggressive and have lived at the line – 36 attempts
Chris Wilcox has a career high 28 points and 12 rebounds. What a find.
Sonics defense has been solid all night long.
Defensive rating through three quarters is 101. That is great.
Seattle 69 Bucks 68 with 5:13 left in the 3rd Quarter
I think I would rather have Luke Ridnour more then TJ Ford. Ford is a bit player and Ridnour could be a many year starter.
Michael Redd is seriously outplaying Ray Allen. Ray is 2 for 11. Reed has 17.
Wilcox has not been as dominant but they don’t run plays for him so they have to materialize in the game.
Sonics 55 Bucks 54 at the half
Chris Wilcox has 20 points in the first half tonight and he has 7 rebounds.
He reminds me of a young Antonio McDyess. McDyess averaged 21-11 one year in Phoenix and I don’t think it is crazy to think Wilcox could head in that direction.
The Sonics are up by 1 with Lewis and Allen just 4 of 14.
Toni Kukoc beat Rashard off the dribble tonight. That is a crime
Bucks 38 Sonics 33 with 8:22 left in the 2nd Quarter
The Bucks just jumped on the Sonics with a line-up that should never beat you.
Ford and Bell were the guards with Kukoc, Joe Smith and Gadzuric. This team can’t score. They can’t shoot and they just kicked the Sonics butt.
Those are things that have to change if this team is going to correct itself.
Sonics 28 Bucks 24 at the end of 1 Quarter
The Sonics defense was terrific to close the quarter. The shots were contested and moreover the drive to the hoop were altered. The Sonics are showing signs of having the instincts of a good defensive basketball team. The area around the basket is clogged.
The rebounding was very good as well on the defensive end.
9-0 run by the Sonics to end the quarter
Chris Wilcox played a fantastic first quarter
Earl Watson came into the game and brought an immediate energy to the team.
I am not sure you can win with TJ Ford as your point guard. He was very unimpressive and he really can’t shoot.
Bucks 17 Sonics 13 with 5:09 left in the 1st Quarter
Johan Petro hit a jump hook from the post that was awesome. Petro has a skill pac
kage that makes you wonder what he might be able to accomplish. At other times he looks like a raw 19 year old.
Andrew Bogut looks like he has tired legs. However, his movement and instincts are terrific. He is enormous and will be a terrific player.
The post defense is lacking tonight by the Sonics.
Chris Wilcox continues to be impressive.
Storylines
1) Watson returns who finishes
2) Chris Wilcox hot play
3) The #1 pick of the draft, Andrew Bogut, is in the house
4) Ray Allen v. Michael Redd
This is a totally different team. They played with strong energy all night. They have great depth even with the injuries and the guys understand how to play together,
Chris Wilcox had a career high 30 points and a double-double. He was magnificent. Teams really are going to have to game plan to his high wire act. You can’t leave him for a moment when the Sonics get into the paint.
The defense was very good all game. The Sonics guarded the rim very well. Their were two back to back plays late in the game when the Bucks drove the left baseline and beat their man but then had their shot altered by the long help defense of the Sonics big men.
Earl Watson finished the game and did it with a flash.
Ridnour played well today. I would rather have him then TJ Ford.
This is a good team win and a sign that there are positive days ahead
Sonics 94 Bucks 90 with 5:56 left in the 4th Quarter
With 8:44 left Allen was 3 of 13 since then he is 1 for 1
With 8:44 left Redd was 8 of 19 since he is 0 for 2
Redd and Allen both have 5 fouls with 5:56 left in the 4th
Eli Roe, one of the officials is a zoo. He may be the worst in the NBA. He is having a miserable night.
So much of the Sonics offense is free lance open floor that when they game gets tight they go to half court sets and that means that Wilcox and the bigs don’t get those penetration opportunities or open floor easy looks. Instead, the Sonics work hard to get Allen and Lewis there looks.
Dan Gadzuric is dominating the Sonics game tonight.
Sonics 83 Bucks 75 at the end of 3rd Quarter
Rashard Lewis welcome back. 15 points in the quarter for Lewis
Sonics are much more aggressive and have lived at the line – 36 attempts
Chris Wilcox has a career high 28 points and 12 rebounds. What a find.
Sonics defense has been solid all night long.
Defensive rating through three quarters is 101. That is great.
Seattle 69 Bucks 68 with 5:13 left in the 3rd Quarter
I think I would rather have Luke Ridnour more then TJ Ford. Ford is a bit player and Ridnour could be a many year starter.
Michael Redd is seriously outplaying Ray Allen. Ray is 2 for 11. Reed has 17.
Wilcox has not been as dominant but they don’t run plays for him so they have to materialize in the game.
Sonics 55 Bucks 54 at the half
Chris Wilcox has 20 points in the first half tonight and he has 7 rebounds.
He reminds me of a young Antonio McDyess. McDyess averaged 21-11 one year in Phoenix and I don’t think it is crazy to think Wilcox could head in that direction.
The Sonics are up by 1 with Lewis and Allen just 4 of 14.
Toni Kukoc beat Rashard off the dribble tonight. That is a crime
Bucks 38 Sonics 33 with 8:22 left in the 2nd Quarter
The Bucks just jumped on the Sonics with a line-up that should never beat you.
Ford and Bell were the guards with Kukoc, Joe Smith and Gadzuric. This team can’t score. They can’t shoot and they just kicked the Sonics butt.
Those are things that have to change if this team is going to correct itself.
Sonics 28 Bucks 24 at the end of 1 Quarter
The Sonics defense was terrific to close the quarter. The shots were contested and moreover the drive to the hoop were altered. The Sonics are showing signs of having the instincts of a good defensive basketball team. The area around the basket is clogged.
The rebounding was very good as well on the defensive end.
9-0 run by the Sonics to end the quarter
Chris Wilcox played a fantastic first quarter
Earl Watson came into the game and brought an immediate energy to the team.
I am not sure you can win with TJ Ford as your point guard. He was very unimpressive and he really can’t shoot.
Bucks 17 Sonics 13 with 5:09 left in the 1st Quarter
Johan Petro hit a jump hook from the post that was awesome. Petro has a skill pac
kage that makes you wonder what he might be able to accomplish. At other times he looks like a raw 19 year old.
Andrew Bogut looks like he has tired legs. However, his movement and instincts are terrific. He is enormous and will be a terrific player.
The post defense is lacking tonight by the Sonics.
Chris Wilcox continues to be impressive.
Storylines
1) Watson returns who finishes
2) Chris Wilcox hot play
3) The #1 pick of the draft, Andrew Bogut, is in the house
4) Ray Allen v. Michael Redd
SWEET SIXTEEN BY THE NUMBERS
Let’s take a look at Washington v. Connecticut through the numbers. Breaking the game into 4 phases, taking care of the ball, shooting the ball, rebounding the ball and getting to the free throw line. This game should be played a blistering pace as these are the 2 of the top 6 pace of play teams in the NCAA tournament.
A few definitions for you. Trip Efficiency is your offensive rating for every time you cross half court, in other words it doesn’t count an offensive rebound as a new possession. Possession efficiency does the opposite it counts every shot or turnover as a possession and if you get an offensive rebound you have a new possession. Effective Field Goal% weighs three point shots.
Here is the Washington v. Connecticut breakdown.
Stat Conn’s Offense Huskies Defense
Trip Efficiency 114.2 95.3
Possession Efficiency 92.9 79.2
Turnovers per possession 16.2% 21.3%
Effective Field Goal % 51.1% 48.2%
Rebounding 44.4% 68.2%
Free Throws per game 25.5
Stat Washington’s Off Conn’s Def
Trip Efficiency 113.1 91.8
Possession Efficiency 94.0 74.8
Turnovers per Possession 17.1% 16.2%
Effective Field Goal% 52.6% 42%
Reboudning % 42.5% 67.1%
Free Throws per game 20.9
When Washington has the ball it is going to be a battle of two great squads. Washington is the 8th best offense in the tournament and UConn is #4 defensively. Connecticut is the best in the NCAA against the shot.
Washington’s ability to keep control of their defensive glass will be the difference in this game. That is significant because last year Washington would never of had a chance in this matchup.
A few definitions for you. Trip Efficiency is your offensive rating for every time you cross half court, in other words it doesn’t count an offensive rebound as a new possession. Possession efficiency does the opposite it counts every shot or turnover as a possession and if you get an offensive rebound you have a new possession. Effective Field Goal% weighs three point shots.
Here is the Washington v. Connecticut breakdown.
When UConn has the ball …..
Stat Conn’s Offense Huskies Defense
Trip Efficiency 114.2 95.3
Possession Efficiency 92.9 79.2
Turnovers per possession 16.2% 21.3%
Effective Field Goal % 51.1% 48.2%
Rebounding 44.4% 68.2%
Free Throws per game 25.5
Connecticut is not a particularly good offensive team. They are a very average tournament team in efficiency and scoring. The way they score is on the offensive glass and the free throw line, both cases they are the #1 team in the tournament. Washington’s defense is predicated on forcing the turnover. They have the highest rated defensive turnover % of any team left in the tournament.
When Washington has the ball ….
Stat Washington’s Off Conn’s Def
Trip Efficiency 113.1 91.8
Possession Efficiency 94.0 74.8
Turnovers per Possession 17.1% 16.2%
Effective Field Goal% 52.6% 42%
Reboudning % 42.5% 67.1%
Free Throws per game 20.9
When Washington has the ball it is going to be a battle of two great squads. Washington is the 8th best offense in the tournament and UConn is #4 defensively. Connecticut is the best in the NCAA against the shot.
Washington’s ability to keep control of their defensive glass will be the difference in this game. That is significant because last year Washington would never of had a chance in this matchup.
Monday, March 20, 2006
HAWKS SPREAD THEIR WINGS
The NFL Network is reporting that the Seattle Seahawks have signed linebacker Julian Peterson to a huge 7 year contract with as much as 18 million in guarantees.
This is a big time signing and gives the Hawks a defensive player that teams have to game plan for. The Hawks were solid defensive last season, but they have not had a player that teams need to alter their plan to deal with since Tez was at his best.
Peterson is that type of player. A consummate professional who makes yearly trips to the Pro-Bowl Peterson is a game changer. Moreover, he is the perfect compliment to the Hawks Lofa Tatupu and LeRoy Hill. The advantageous part of having two youngsters at the other linebacker spots means the Hawks can spend the type of money they are spending on Peterson.
Moreover, this alleviates some of the pressure on Tatupu and Hill. DD Lewis will be replaced in the starting line-up and he has shown no ability to change games or stay in games. This is a dramatic upgrade for the Hawks defensively.
According to the NFL Network, the Hawks are still pursuing John Abraham who is another serious game changer on the defensive end.
The Hawks are still without a second corner back or safety depth in the secondary.
HAWKS DECLINE ON HUTCH
Priority #1 for the Seattle Seahawks this off season has left the building. Steve Hutchinson is a Minnesota Viking.
There is no debate left on whether or not the Hawks made a mistake not franchising Hutchinson. They made a terrible mistake. They may have done it as a good faith gesture, but it has backfired terribly and the complexion of this team is terribly altered.
The offensive line has been the core of this football team. Last year, it became obvious they had an advantage going into every game in the battle of their offensive line against their defensive line.
Moreover, the dynamic tandem of Hutchinson and Walter Jones covered up the other Hawks weaknesses. The reason Robbie Toebeck was a pro-bowler was because the Hawks were able to cover for the veteran with the play of Hutchinson. Chris Gray is also closer to 40 then 30 and his game is slipping. However, that was covered up by what the Hawks could do with Hutch in the interior of the line.
This team has been built to win right now. However, they just lost their #1 advantage going into each and every game. Shaun Alexander was the MVP and Matt Hasselbeck seems on the verge of being an MVP, but both are going to have bring their games to a new pinnacle without the mauler Steve Hutchinson on the line.
Friday, March 17, 2006
NUMBERS SHOW A LOT BUT GETTING THE DIVIDENDS
UPDATE: 7:55 pm Sunday
We have reached the Sweet Sixteen and in a crazy year we have 10 of the 16 sweet sixteen teams. I am not pleased with this, but maybe I should run the numbers on Bradley and George Mason.
I am on vacation and when I return I will update any trends that may have developed.
What is surprising is while the overall results are not as good as I would like many of the indicators are holding very true
Did last year's trends continue .....
Update is in green.
· 9 of the top 13 offensive teams made the Sweet Sixteen and all Final Four Teams were in the Top 8. This makes Memphis a questionable pick since they are 32nd offensively. Memphis makes the Sweet 16. The UNC loss is one of the better offensive teams falling out. Without all my data I am not sure, but I believe this trend is going to hold with the Zags, the Huskies and West Virginia all making the 16.
We have reached the Sweet Sixteen and in a crazy year we have 10 of the 16 sweet sixteen teams. I am not pleased with this, but maybe I should run the numbers on Bradley and George Mason.
I am on vacation and when I return I will update any trends that may have developed.
What is surprising is while the overall results are not as good as I would like many of the indicators are holding very true
Did last year's trends continue .....
Update is in green.
· 9 of the top 13 offensive teams made the Sweet Sixteen and all Final Four Teams were in the Top 8. This makes Memphis a questionable pick since they are 32nd offensively. Memphis makes the Sweet 16. The UNC loss is one of the better offensive teams falling out. Without all my data I am not sure, but I believe this trend is going to hold with the Zags, the Huskies and West Virginia all making the 16.
· 0 of the bottom 10 offensive teams made the Sweet Sixteen. This eliminates Iowa, Arizona, Syracuse, Oklahoma, Southern Illinois, Seton Hall, UNC-Wilmington, UW-Milwaukee, Wisconsin and LSU. Check this out. The only teams to survive to the second round other then LSU beat another team on this list. This is a great indicator to upsets. LSU maintains and makes the Sweet 16 despite the offensive ineffectiveness.
· Nine of the Top 11 and 10 of the top 14 efficiency differential teams were Sweet Sixteen and the top 4 were Final Four. The top 4 are Texas, UConn, Florida and Kansas. The next are Memphis, Duke, Illinois, Bucknell, Washington, Villanova, George Washington, Ohio State, UNC and UCLA. Kansas was knocked out in the first round. Illinois lost to Washington who is aslo in the top 14 and GW lost to Duke who is in the top 14. Kansas loss is the only one to break the trend. Ohio State loss on Sunday is a surprise by this indiciator. Not as good an indicator this year but still strong as 7 of the top 10 made the Sweet 16, while only 8 of the top 14 (three lost to teams in the top 8).
· Only 2 of the bottom 15 effective field goal % teams made the Sweet Sixteen. Of teams seeded to go to the Sweet Sixteen this includes, Iowa, Villanova and 5 seeds Pittsburg, Nevada and Syracuse . This holds very true. Only Villanova got through to the Sweet 16. Last year was 2 of the bottom 15 to the Sweet 16 and I believe this year it is only 1 of 15.
· 12 of the top 16 defensive turnover % teams made the Sweet Sixteen. These are UAB, Texas A&M, Southern Illinois, Arizona, Bucknell, Tennessee, G Washington, Washington, West Virginia, UNC-Wilmington, Memphis, Arkansas, Kansas, Villanova, Florida and UCLA. Surprisingly 10 of this group are out of the tourny. This indicator is a failure in 2006.
· Only 1 of the bottom 13 defensive turnover % teams and 2 of the bottom 22 made the sweet Sixteen – Of the teams seeded to go to the Sweet Sixteen this includes, UConn, Gonzaga, Boston College, Ohio State, and UNC. The reverse of last year shows again on the turnovers.
Thursday, March 16, 2006
LOCKE'S NUMBERS V. THE GURU OF THE NCAA MITCH LEVY
UPDATED -- 7:57 PM ON SUNDAY
The real issue is if the numbers beat NCAA guru Mitch Levy. If you haven't heard Mitch mocked the numbers with some real venom. Therefore, I proposed a $200 bet for the charity of our choice on who wins. We will keep you up to date.
Here are Mitch's teams (the guys to root against)
NOTE -- We told you Iowa was prime for the upset since they couldn't score.
FINAL 4
Mitch's Final 4 - West Virginia, Memphis, UConn, Boston College
Locke's Final 4 - Texas,Kansas, UConn, Florida
TEAMS TO ROOT AGAINST
Teams's Mitch has in the Elite 8 that Locke's numbers don't -- West Virginia, Memphis, Indiana, Michigan St., Boston College.
Teams's Mitch has in the Sweet 16 that Locke's numbers don't -- LSU,Indiana, Pittsburgh, Michigan St., Tennessee,Georgetown
Current Standings
Mitch's Teams left as of the Sweet 16 = 11
Locke's Teams left as of the Sweet 16 = 10
Big Games in the Sweet 16
Texas (Locke) v. West Virginia (Mitch)
Villanova (Locke) v. Boston College (Mitch)
Memphis (Mitch) v. Bradley (none)
UCLA (Locke) v. Gonzaga (none)
The real issue is if the numbers beat NCAA guru Mitch Levy. If you haven't heard Mitch mocked the numbers with some real venom. Therefore, I proposed a $200 bet for the charity of our choice on who wins. We will keep you up to date.
Here are Mitch's teams (the guys to root against)
NOTE -- We told you Iowa was prime for the upset since they couldn't score.
FINAL 4
Mitch's Final 4 - West Virginia, Memphis, UConn, Boston College
Locke's Final 4 - Texas,
TEAMS TO ROOT AGAINST
Teams's Mitch has in the Elite 8 that Locke's numbers don't -- West Virginia, Memphis,
Teams's Mitch has in the Sweet 16 that Locke's numbers don't -- LSU,
Current Standings
Mitch's Teams left as of the Sweet 16 = 11
Locke's Teams left as of the Sweet 16 = 10
Big Games in the Sweet 16
Texas (Locke) v. West Virginia (Mitch)
Villanova (Locke) v. Boston College (Mitch)
Memphis (Mitch) v. Bradley (none)
UCLA (Locke) v. Gonzaga (none)
HOW ARE THE NUMBERS DOING?
In the meantime, how are the numbers doing. The numbers really are about picking the Sweet 16, the Elite 8 and the Final 4. Therefore, I will update based on who is alive in those.
Sweet 16 (10 of 16)-- Duke,Texas A&M, West Virginia, Texas, Memphis, Kansas, SDSU, UCLA, UConn, Illinois, UNC, Withita St, Villanova, Boston College, Florida and Ohio State.
Elite 8 (6 still alive) -- Duke, Texas,Kansas, UCLA, UConn, UNC, Villanova and Florida
Final (3 still alive) -- Texas,Kansas, UConn, Florida
Sweet 16 (10 of 16)-- Duke,
Elite 8 (6 still alive) -- Duke, Texas,
Final (3 still alive) -- Texas,
Wednesday, March 15, 2006
THE METHOD TO THE MADNESS OF BRACKETOLOGY BY THE NUMBERS
BRACKETOLOGY BY STATS – 2006 UPDATE
Here is the method to all this madness. I have done a stat breakdown of the last 44 Final Four teams to dictate what a Final Four team. With that I have created the 9 thresholds that all Final Four teams have meet. If you don’t reach these you will not go the Final Four..
Here is the method to all this madness. I have done a stat breakdown of the last 44 Final Four teams to dictate what a Final Four team. With that I have created the 9 thresholds that all Final Four teams have meet. If you don’t reach these you will not go the Final Four..
YOU WILL NOT GO TO THE FINAL FOUR IF …
1. Offensive Efficiency is below 90 ---
2. If you defensive efficiency is above 87..
3. If your efficiency differential is below 8
4. Effective Field Goal % is under 49%
5. If your defensive Effective Field Goal % is over 50%
6. If your effective field goal % differential is under 2.
7. If your rebounding % is below 50%
8. If you turnover more than 19% of your possessions
9. If you turnover just 15% of your defensive possessions.
Then to get a little more detail I found 9 things that would put you in the 15% of all Final Four teams. They are ….
YOU ARE BUCKING THE TREND TO GO TO THE FINAL FOUR IF ….
1. Your offensive efficiency is below 92. (7 of last 44)
2. If your defensive efficiency is over 83. (4 of the last 44)
3. If your efficiency differential is below 11. (6 of last 44)
4. If you effective field goal % is under 50% (4 of the last 44)
5. If you defensive effective field Goal % is over 47% (7 of last 44)
6. If you Field Goal differential is under 5 (6 of last 44)
7. If you turn it over more than 18% of your possessions (7 of 44)
8. If your defensive turns over under 16% of their possessions (5 of last 44)
9. If your assisted field goals is below 55% (6 of last 44)
Finally, what does a Final Four team look like. These are the qualities that 65% of the last 11 years worth of Final Four Teams have.
YOU CAN GO TO THE FINAL FOUR IF ….(65% of Final Four Teams)
1. Offensive Efficiency over 93 you are in good shape. 29 of 40 Final Four teams.
2. Defensive Efficiency under 80 also in good shape. 27 of 40 Final Four teams.
3. Efficiency Difference is over 15 then 28 of 44 teams.
4. Effective Field Goal over 52.5% for 28 of 44 teams.
5. Defensive effective Field Goal below 46% for 30 of 44 teams
6. Field Goal Differential over 7 and 30 of 44.
7. Rebounding % over 53% 29 of 44 teams.
8. Turnover % is under 17% then 27 of 44 teams.
9. Defensive turnover % must be over 18% 34 of 44 teams
WHO WILL BE THE SURPRISES?
PICKING UPSETS OFF LAST YEAR’S RESULTS
· 9 of the top 13 offensive teams made the Sweet Sixteen and all Final Four Teams were in the Top 8. This makes Memphis a questionable pick since they are 32nd offensively.
· 9 of the top 13 offensive teams made the Sweet Sixteen and all Final Four Teams were in the Top 8. This makes Memphis a questionable pick since they are 32nd offensively.
· 0 of the bottom 10 offensive teams made the Sweet Sixteen. This eliminates Iowa, Arizona, Syracuse, Oklahoma, Southern Illinois, Seton Hall, UNC-Wilmington, UW-Milwaukee, Wisconsin and LSU
· Nine of the Top 11 and 10 of the top 14 efficiency differential teams were Sweet Sixteen and the top 4 were Final Four. The top 4 are Texas, UConn, Florida and Kansas. The next are Memphis, Duke, Illinois, Bucknell, Washington, Villanova, George Washington, Ohio State, UNC and UCLA.
· Only 2 of the bottom 15 effective field goal % teams made the Sweet Sixteen. Of teams seeded to go to the Sweet Sixteen this includes, Iowa, Villanova and 5 seeds Pittsburg, Nevada and Syracuse
· 12 of the top 16 defensive turnover % teams made the Sweet Sixteen. These are UAB, Texas A&M, Southern Illinois, Arizona, Bucknell, Tennessee, G Washington, Washington, West Virginia, UNC-Wilmington, Memphis, Arkansas, Kansas, Villanova, Florida and UCLA.
· Only 1 of the bottom 13 defensive turnover % teams and 2 of the bottom 22 made the sweet Sixteen – Of the teams seeded to go to the Sweet Sixteen this includes, UConn, Gonzaga, Boston College, Ohio State, and UNC
ATLANTA BRACKET BY THE NUMBERS
ATLANTA BRACKET – IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE FOR FINAL FOUR
Texas -- The perfect team. I created 9 rules that 65% of all F4 teams over the last 11 years have done. Texas is the only team in the tournament to hit all 9 barriers.. The efficiency differential is #1 in the tournament. Last year the top 4 efficiency differential teams were the Final Four and 9 of the top 11 were Sweet Sixteen. They are also the only team in this bracket without a fatal flaw. Texas is your National Champ.
Texas -- The perfect team. I created 9 rules that 65% of all F4 teams over the last 11 years have done. Texas is the only team in the tournament to hit all 9 barriers.. The efficiency differential is #1 in the tournament. Last year the top 4 efficiency differential teams were the Final Four and 9 of the top 11 were Sweet Sixteen. They are also the only team in this bracket without a fatal flaw. Texas is your National Champ.
Duke -- They have a fatal flaw. They only grab 47.8 of their rebounds. No team has made the F4 with a rebounding % that low in the last 11 years. They are the #1 offensive team. They fall in the Elite 8 to Texas who gets 57% of their rebounds.
Texas A&M -- They have a nice efficiency differential. The fatal flaw is bad rebounding, but look for tournament surprises with a defensive turnover rate of 24%.
West Virginia -- An awesome offensive team. However, they don’t defend a lick. They are the worst defensive team in the tournament and the worst rebounding team in the tournament. A good draw will get them to the Sweet Sixteen.
George Washington -- Numbers might not be quality due to the Atlantic 10. They don’t do anything great. They are #7 in forced turnovers but they lose to Duke.
LSU - Prime pick for an early upset. Last year 0 of the bottom 10 offensive teams made the Sweet Sixteen and that is right where LSU sits at 9th worst. They are a defensive based team and those don’t advance. They lose to Texas A&M in the second round.
Iowa -- Another very flawed team. They can’t score. They are the 2nd worst offensive team in the tournament. Last year, 0 of the bottom 10 made the sweet sixteen.
WASHINGTON DC BRACKET BY THE NUMBERS
WASHINGTON DC BRACKET – IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE FOR F4
UConn -- This is tough between Illinois and UConn. UConn gets the edge because they have a better efficiency differential (22.3 to 18.6). UConn is not great offensively. Last year, all Final Four teams were in the top 8 offensively and UConn is 22nd. Also, UConn doesn’t force turnovers. They are the second worst in the tournament at 16.2%. Last year, only 2 of the bottom 22 defensive turnover people made the Sweet Sixteen. This is not a no-brainer.
UConn -- This is tough between Illinois and UConn. UConn gets the edge because they have a better efficiency differential (22.3 to 18.6). UConn is not great offensively. Last year, all Final Four teams were in the top 8 offensively and UConn is 22nd. Also, UConn doesn’t force turnovers. They are the second worst in the tournament at 16.2%. Last year, only 2 of the bottom 22 defensive turnover people made the Sweet Sixteen. This is not a no-brainer.
Illinois -- Another offensively challenged team. Even moreso then Uconn. An offensive efficiency rating of 91.6 and only 7 of the last 44 F4 teams have had a rating under 92. Otherwise, they are nearly perfect. They hit 7 of the 9 rules of a F4 team. They lose to UConn in the Sweet Sixteen. They are a good pick.
Washington -- This is the worst draw in the tournament. They are the third best team in the bracket and they will lose in the second round. They have no fatal flaws. They hit 5 of the 9 rules for F4 teams. They are the 14th best offense and the 9th best differential team. Their Defensive Effective Field Goal% is just 48.2 and only 7 of 44 F4 have been over 47%. They are the 8th best at forcing turnovers and last year 12 of the top 16 made the sweet sixteen. However, Illinois is too good.
UNC -- They turn the ball over 19.4% of their possessions and that is more then any F4 team in the last 11 years. Otherwise, they don’t even buck a trend. They hit on 4 of the 9 rules. Their offense is in the top 16. They fall in the elite eight to UConn but it is a very good match-up for UNC considering how few turnovers UConn forces. UNC may be the pick due to the frailties of UConn and Illinois.
Tennessee -- This team is a joke. Pick Wintrop. Tennessee has three fatal flaws, their defensive efficiency is 87.6, their rebounding is under 50% and they don’t have any field goal differential. They do two things well, they shoot and they force turnovers which are good indicators but this team is too flawed to make a F4 run.
Michigan State -- Similar to Tennessee but they don’t force the turnovers. They score very well and don’t defend.
MINNEAPOLIS BRACKET BY THE NUMBERS
MINNEAPOLIS BRACKET – IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE FOR THE F4
Florida - They have the best efficiency differential in the bracket and no fatal flaw. Their only weakness is they turn the ball over 18.8% of possessions and only 7 of 44 F4 teams have done that. On the positive side, they are the #2 offensive team in the tournament and 9 of the top 13 offensive teams last year made the Sweet Sixteen and all of the Final Four were in the Top 8. They have the #2 efficiency differential in the tournament. They are 15th in defensive turnover % and last year 12 of the top 16 made the sweet sixteen and all 4 of the Final Four were in the top 13. Gators to the F4
Florida - They have the best efficiency differential in the bracket and no fatal flaw. Their only weakness is they turn the ball over 18.8% of possessions and only 7 of 44 F4 teams have done that. On the positive side, they are the #2 offensive team in the tournament and 9 of the top 13 offensive teams last year made the Sweet Sixteen and all of the Final Four were in the Top 8. They have the #2 efficiency differential in the tournament. They are 15th in defensive turnover % and last year 12 of the top 16 made the sweet sixteen and all 4 of the Final Four were in the top 13. Gators to the F4
Villanova - Nova doesn’t have a fatal flaw and their only weakness is their effective field goal differential which is 2.8. That is the 11th worst and last year only 2 of the bottom 15 made the sweet sixteen. They make the Elite Eight and lose to Florida.
Ohio State - They Buckeyes only get 49.8% of their rebounds. That is a fatal flaw. Only one team has made the final 4 under 50% of the last 44. To their benefit rebounding is not a major indicator of tournament success. Offense is 7th best in the tournament. They will be Florida’s biggest test but will lose in the Sweet Sixteen.
Boston College - They are without a fatal flaw but they don’t defend. The defensive rating is 85.4 and only 4of the last 44 F4 teams have had a rating over 83. Also, only 6 of the last 44 have had an efficiency differential under 11 and they are 10.3.
The offense is big time. They lose to Villanova in the Sweet Sixteen.
Nevada - They don’t have a fatal flaw. The only concern is their offense is weak and offense wins and they don’t force a lot of turnovers. This team is solid, but to make progress in the tournament you have to score and force turnovers and they don’t do either. Boston College gets them.
Georgetown - They don’t have a fatal flaw. However, they are like Boston College. The two are almost identical statistically. Ohio State ends Georgetown’s season.
OAKLAND BRACKET BY THE NUMBERS
OAKLAND BRACKET -- IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE TO MAKE THE F4
Kansas – They have no fatal flaws and they have the best efficiency differential. My pick for the Final Four. They have two areas of concern. Offense efficiency of 90.8 is low. Only 7 of 44 F4 teams have had a rating below 92. In addition, they turn the ball over 18.8% of their possessions. Only 7 of 44 F4 teams have turned it over that much. These are major concerns because the two stats that lead to the most success last year was offensive efficiency and ability to force turnovers. The Jayhawks pass 7 of the 9 rules for F4 Teams.
Kansas – They have no fatal flaws and they have the best efficiency differential. My pick for the Final Four. They have two areas of concern. Offense efficiency of 90.8 is low. Only 7 of 44 F4 teams have had a rating below 92. In addition, they turn the ball over 18.8% of their possessions. Only 7 of 44 F4 teams have turned it over that much. These are major concerns because the two stats that lead to the most success last year was offensive efficiency and ability to force turnovers. The Jayhawks pass 7 of the 9 rules for F4 Teams.
Memphis -- They have no fatal flaws and their differential is 20.4 compared to Kansas at 20.6. Their only weakness is offensively with a rating of 90.4. This is a major concern for both Kansas and Memphis as only 4 teams in the last 11 years have made the Final Four with a rating under 91. Lose in the Sweet 16 to Kansas.
Pittsburg -- They have no fatal flaw. However, they only have two of the nine qualities of a F4 team. Lose in the round of 32 to Kansas, but any other bracket and they had a shot.
UCLA -- The Bruins have a fatal flaw. Only 1 team has gone to F4 committing turnovers on more then 19% of their possessions. The Bruins turn it over 19.8% of the time. That is the second worst of any team in the tournament and last year only 2 of the bottom 12 turnover teams made the Sweet Sixteen. UCLA should do that making it all the way to the Elite 8 because they won’t have to play anyone.
Arkansas -- No fatal flaws, but they have a hard time scoring and their effective field goal differential is not of F4 quality. Only 6 of the last 44 F4 teams have had a differential under 6 and the Razorbacks are at 3.45. Fall to Memphis in the second round.
Bucknell-- Lesser competition so the numbers may not have value, but against lesser competition they turn the ball over 20% of their possessions. That is a fatal flaw and a first round lose to Arkansas who forces 20.8% of possessions into turnovers. Great efficiency differential and 9 of the top 11 last year made the Sweet Sixteen. They would classify.
Gonzaga Their defense is a fatal flaw. No team has made the F4 with a defensive rating of 88.7. Also, the Zags only force 16.4% of opponents possessions into turnovers, 4th worst in the tournament. Last year, 1 of the bottom 13 and 2 of the bottom 22 in that category made the Sweet Sixteen. The Zags offense is great, 6th best in the tournament. However, their differential is not special. A second round out by the Zags to San Diego State.
Tuesday, March 14, 2006
NCAA TOURNAMENT BY THE NUMBERS
I have had a ton of requests for the NCAA numbers. I will post them tonight in some capacity after the Sonics game. This will take some time and I need to figure out a format that works.
DL
DL
SIMULBLOG SONICS V. SUNS
Suns 127 Sonics 120 – FINAL SCORE
The action was insane. Non-stop all night
In the first half Bob Hill stayed big and then in the second half he was forced to go small
Steve Nash is amazing. The comments about his core were really noticeable once you get to it in person it is remarkable.
The Suns never missed a mismatch during the game
The Suns have to incredibly how fatiguing to play both mentally and physically.
The Suns got 33% of their offensive rebounds and they usually get 22%. This was the difference in the game
The game had 98 possessions.
Sonics offensive rating 123 but Phoenix was 132.
Suns 118 Sonics 110 with 3:56 left in the 4th Quarter
Allen hits a transition three that ignites the crowd
Ridnour went one on one on Nash and got rejected and sent sprawling
Nash never looses his balance
The Sonics are going hard at the Suns but they can’t get enough stops to get back in the game
The Suns never miss a mismatch on the floor and get a ton of easy looks because of it.
Suns 102 Sonics 90 at the end of 3 Quarters
This is just pure open floor craziness
Rashard Lewis and Boris Diaw were the centers and Ray Allen and Marion were the power forwards
Spread the floor and penetrate.
Some Sonics players looked gassed at the end of the quarter
The Suns are now shooting 57% and scored 35 points in the 3rd
Suns 92 Sonics 79 with 3:13 left in the 3rd Quarter
The Suns have scored on 10 straight possessions.
In the pre-game conversation with the Suns head Coach he talked about Nash’s core strength and how he never looses his balance. It is unreal to watch up close. He never losses his balance no matter how much he gets bumped.
The pace forces the Sonics into some poor possessions because of mental and physical fatigue. Those possessions cost you the game.
Suns 67 Sonics 61 at the half
I can’t keep up this game to blog
If you look down you miss something
It is just a wild the pace of the game
The Suns penetrate and kick game is amazing.
Ray Allen brought the Sonics back. 19 points in the first half.
The Sups are 7 of 11 from 3
We have played 50+ possessions in the first half.
Lewis needs to play better, he seems out of it again.
Suns 36 Sonics 28 at the end of 1 Quarter
The Suns made their surge when Allen went out of the game. That has been a season long issue.
49 shots in the Quarter – 20 of them three’s
The Suns haven’t taken a free throw – they take the fewest of any team in the NBA
Tim Thomas is killing Seattle he is 6 of 6 and has 15 points.
Sonics 14 Suns 14 with 5:51 left in the 1st Quarter
Holy Smokes – the pace of this game is unbelievable
The floor is open and these guys are running every time
Petro looked like he was going to have cardiac arrest
The Suns took 17 shots in the first 6 minutes
The Suns are the worst offensive rebounding team in the NBA and they already have 5 you can’t allow that.
Storylines
1) Offense
2) Steve Nash, Steve Nash and Steve Nash
3) Last time was a mismatch jamboree who will create the mismatches this time.
The action was insane. Non-stop all night
In the first half Bob Hill stayed big and then in the second half he was forced to go small
Steve Nash is amazing. The comments about his core were really noticeable once you get to it in person it is remarkable.
The Suns never missed a mismatch during the game
The Suns have to incredibly how fatiguing to play both mentally and physically.
The Suns got 33% of their offensive rebounds and they usually get 22%. This was the difference in the game
The game had 98 possessions.
Sonics offensive rating 123 but Phoenix was 132.
Suns 118 Sonics 110 with 3:56 left in the 4th Quarter
Allen hits a transition three that ignites the crowd
Ridnour went one on one on Nash and got rejected and sent sprawling
Nash never looses his balance
The Sonics are going hard at the Suns but they can’t get enough stops to get back in the game
The Suns never miss a mismatch on the floor and get a ton of easy looks because of it.
Suns 102 Sonics 90 at the end of 3 Quarters
This is just pure open floor craziness
Rashard Lewis and Boris Diaw were the centers and Ray Allen and Marion were the power forwards
Spread the floor and penetrate.
Some Sonics players looked gassed at the end of the quarter
The Suns are now shooting 57% and scored 35 points in the 3rd
Suns 92 Sonics 79 with 3:13 left in the 3rd Quarter
The Suns have scored on 10 straight possessions.
In the pre-game conversation with the Suns head Coach he talked about Nash’s core strength and how he never looses his balance. It is unreal to watch up close. He never losses his balance no matter how much he gets bumped.
The pace forces the Sonics into some poor possessions because of mental and physical fatigue. Those possessions cost you the game.
Suns 67 Sonics 61 at the half
I can’t keep up this game to blog
If you look down you miss something
It is just a wild the pace of the game
The Suns penetrate and kick game is amazing.
Ray Allen brought the Sonics back. 19 points in the first half.
The Sups are 7 of 11 from 3
We have played 50+ possessions in the first half.
Lewis needs to play better, he seems out of it again.
Suns 36 Sonics 28 at the end of 1 Quarter
The Suns made their surge when Allen went out of the game. That has been a season long issue.
49 shots in the Quarter – 20 of them three’s
The Suns haven’t taken a free throw – they take the fewest of any team in the NBA
Tim Thomas is killing Seattle he is 6 of 6 and has 15 points.
Sonics 14 Suns 14 with 5:51 left in the 1st Quarter
Holy Smokes – the pace of this game is unbelievable
The floor is open and these guys are running every time
Petro looked like he was going to have cardiac arrest
The Suns took 17 shots in the first 6 minutes
The Suns are the worst offensive rebounding team in the NBA and they already have 5 you can’t allow that.
Storylines
1) Offense
2) Steve Nash, Steve Nash and Steve Nash
3) Last time was a mismatch jamboree who will create the mismatches this time.
Saturday, March 11, 2006
SIMULBLOG OF SONICS V. LAKERS
There will be no simulblog because I will be calling the game in place of KC.
NFL FREE AGENCY
John Clayton had another tremendous show today on 950, KJR. Some of the news from the show. The Hawks are making a strong run at cornerback Wil Allen. The Cleveland Browns are on the verge of signing Big Joe Jurevivus and as has been talked about Marquand Manuel is expected to move to Green Bay.
The real issue to keep an eye on is the Vikings. They have contacted Steve Hutchinson's agent and they have huge money to spend for the All-Pro Guard. The Hawks have the ability to match, but the problem is the Vikings can try to do some creative things in the contract that make it very hard to match the deal. Seattle knew they might be playing with fire when they transitioned instead of franchised Hutch and the fire may be a Minnesota offer.
Friday, March 10, 2006
SIMULBLOG FOR SONICS V. WOLVES
Wolves 63 Sonics 56 with 5:57 left in the 3rd Quarter
Sonics get their first fast break basket of the night with 6:47 left in the 3rd
Rashard Lewis is not right. He is 1 of 9 from the floor
Kevin Garnett is not on his game tonight either 4 of 13
The Wolves are leaving the door open.
Wolves 55 Sonics 48 at the half
Ray Allen is begging for help and he isn’t getting it
Sonics defense is absent again tonight from the action
Sonics offense has been relegated to the half court, no fast break points
Wolves 37 Sonics 33 with 6:03 left in the 2nd Quarter
Sonics go on a 9-1 run with Watson and Allen in the backcourt
The Sonics bigs are fun to watch but they are still making a ton of errors and it costs the Sonics.
The Wolves got 46% of eligible offensive rebounds in the 1st Quarter
Wolves 17 Sonics 14 with 5:33 left in the 1st Quarter
High paced game to start
Minnesota has scored on 8 straight possessions
Ray Allen has come with a ton of fire
Petro is working hard, but he still ends up in the wrong position or makes a defense mistake with a ton of regularity
STORYLINES
1) Duane Casey returns to the Key
2) Wolves inability to win close games
3) Sonics bounce back from bad performance against Grizz
4) Chris Wilcox playing against Kevin Garnett
Sonics get their first fast break basket of the night with 6:47 left in the 3rd
Rashard Lewis is not right. He is 1 of 9 from the floor
Kevin Garnett is not on his game tonight either 4 of 13
The Wolves are leaving the door open.
Wolves 55 Sonics 48 at the half
Ray Allen is begging for help and he isn’t getting it
Sonics defense is absent again tonight from the action
Sonics offense has been relegated to the half court, no fast break points
Wolves 37 Sonics 33 with 6:03 left in the 2nd Quarter
Sonics go on a 9-1 run with Watson and Allen in the backcourt
The Sonics bigs are fun to watch but they are still making a ton of errors and it costs the Sonics.
The Wolves got 46% of eligible offensive rebounds in the 1st Quarter
Wolves 17 Sonics 14 with 5:33 left in the 1st Quarter
High paced game to start
Minnesota has scored on 8 straight possessions
Ray Allen has come with a ton of fire
Petro is working hard, but he still ends up in the wrong position or makes a defense mistake with a ton of regularity
STORYLINES
1) Duane Casey returns to the Key
2) Wolves inability to win close games
3) Sonics bounce back from bad performance against Grizz
4) Chris Wilcox playing against Kevin Garnett
Wednesday, March 08, 2006
SIMULBLOG FOR SONICS V. GRIZZ
Grizzlies 89 Sonics 70 with 5:59 left in the 4th Quarter
Memphis has controlled this game throughout.
Seattle can’t do anything to Gasol. If they double he slices them up and if they single he beats the guy guarding him. He looks amazing.
This is a really poor performance. They never were able to institute their will on Memphis at all.
Grizz 75 Sonics 56 at the end of 3 Quarter
Chucky Atkins and Gasol killed the Sonics in the third
The Grizz are playing ring around the posey with their passing game.
The ball movement is amazing. They are using both sides of the floor at all times and slicing the Sonics apart.
At some point Seattle has to impede the progress of a Memphis player. They are making easy to play against. They are very passive with their pressure and double teams
Gasol is dominate with the ball. They run everything
Grizz 44 Sonics 37 at the half
All Memphis.
The pace has been very slow. We have only played 43 possessions. Memphis averages 88 and that is the slowest in the league
Seattle is getting crushed on the boards. In the 2nd Quarter Seattle only got 36% of the eligible defensive rebounds
Griz 39 Sonics 32 with 1:42 left in the 2nd Quarter
The Grizz are playing amazing help defense on the Sonics
Every time Allen or Lewis make a move they are meet by a hoard of Grizz defenders.
On the flip side, Seattle is taking the ball out of Gasol’s hands but they are finding the cutter and getting easy looks
Seattle is really struggling on the defensive glass. Petro has to be better rebounding on the defensive end of the ball. Memphis is not a good offensive rebounding team and they are crushing Seattle.
Grizz 27 Sonics 23 with 8:38 left in the 2nd Quarter
It would be amazing tonight to have a chart of the Sonics possessions comparing their success in the half court compared to the open floor. Obviously, you are always better in the open floor. However, tonight the Sonics have to be about 10% conversion rate on the half court possessions. They are only scoring in transition. This puts huge pressure on there defense and defensive rebound. Two weaknesses for most of the season
Grizz 25 Sonics 16 at the end of 1 Quarter
This has been a half court game so far. – only 22 possessions. Right on the average of the Grizz which is the slowest in the NBA.
Chris Wilcox is vicious around the rim when the Sonics are able to penetrate and find him he is a slam machine
The Grizz run everything through Gasol and the Sonics are doubling him every time.
The Grizz have exploited that by getting good look jumpers.
Grizz 12 Sonics 8 with 4:29 left in the 1st Quarter.
This game is really a tug of war about pace of play. The Sonics are trying to push off both makes and misses and the Grizz are amazingly methodical getting into the half court each and every possession.
Chris Wilcox made a great play sprinting the floor after he stopped a fast break and Ridnour found him for a dunk.
Some really ugly basketball so far
Key to the whole game will be pace of play
Memphis has controlled this game throughout.
Seattle can’t do anything to Gasol. If they double he slices them up and if they single he beats the guy guarding him. He looks amazing.
This is a really poor performance. They never were able to institute their will on Memphis at all.
Grizz 75 Sonics 56 at the end of 3 Quarter
Chucky Atkins and Gasol killed the Sonics in the third
The Grizz are playing ring around the posey with their passing game.
The ball movement is amazing. They are using both sides of the floor at all times and slicing the Sonics apart.
At some point Seattle has to impede the progress of a Memphis player. They are making easy to play against. They are very passive with their pressure and double teams
Gasol is dominate with the ball. They run everything
Grizz 44 Sonics 37 at the half
All Memphis.
The pace has been very slow. We have only played 43 possessions. Memphis averages 88 and that is the slowest in the league
Seattle is getting crushed on the boards. In the 2nd Quarter Seattle only got 36% of the eligible defensive rebounds
Griz 39 Sonics 32 with 1:42 left in the 2nd Quarter
The Grizz are playing amazing help defense on the Sonics
Every time Allen or Lewis make a move they are meet by a hoard of Grizz defenders.
On the flip side, Seattle is taking the ball out of Gasol’s hands but they are finding the cutter and getting easy looks
Seattle is really struggling on the defensive glass. Petro has to be better rebounding on the defensive end of the ball. Memphis is not a good offensive rebounding team and they are crushing Seattle.
Grizz 27 Sonics 23 with 8:38 left in the 2nd Quarter
It would be amazing tonight to have a chart of the Sonics possessions comparing their success in the half court compared to the open floor. Obviously, you are always better in the open floor. However, tonight the Sonics have to be about 10% conversion rate on the half court possessions. They are only scoring in transition. This puts huge pressure on there defense and defensive rebound. Two weaknesses for most of the season
Grizz 25 Sonics 16 at the end of 1 Quarter
This has been a half court game so far. – only 22 possessions. Right on the average of the Grizz which is the slowest in the NBA.
Chris Wilcox is vicious around the rim when the Sonics are able to penetrate and find him he is a slam machine
The Grizz run everything through Gasol and the Sonics are doubling him every time.
The Grizz have exploited that by getting good look jumpers.
Grizz 12 Sonics 8 with 4:29 left in the 1st Quarter.
This game is really a tug of war about pace of play. The Sonics are trying to push off both makes and misses and the Grizz are amazingly methodical getting into the half court each and every possession.
Chris Wilcox made a great play sprinting the floor after he stopped a fast break and Ridnour found him for a dunk.
Some really ugly basketball so far
Key to the whole game will be pace of play
Sad Suspicions About Scores in Basketball - New York Times
I thought this was a very interesting and unnerving read. Lots of different thoughts on this. If the final part that 1.5 % of players admitted to knowing someone who took money for playing poorly (and I am sure the # is higher since this is admitted) it would be 2 or 3 players in the Pac-10 alone. The structure of college basketball makes it very suspectible to point shaving and even moreso with the new rules about NBA eligibility.
Sad Suspicions About Scores in Basketball - New York Times: "It is played by young men who don't usually have a lot of money. With just five players on the court, one person can determine the outcome. And the point-spread system, in which bets are based on the margin of victory rather than wins and losses, allows players to fix a game without losing it."
Sad Suspicions About Scores in Basketball - New York Times: "It is played by young men who don't usually have a lot of money. With just five players on the court, one person can determine the outcome. And the point-spread system, in which bets are based on the margin of victory rather than wins and losses, allows players to fix a game without losing it."
Locked on Sports: Now we'll see the real Alexander
Locked on Sports: Now we'll see the real Alexander: "What will the motivation be at this point? Will his ego put him on a quest to Canton, Ohio, and the Pro Football Hall of Fame? Or will the accomplishment of his primary goal, the contract, create a slippage in his performance?
Contract in hand, will he look beyond the team elements of a running back -- blitz pickup, pass routes and decoy situations -- and become even more obsessed in his quest for stats?
These are the questions that Alexander will answer in the upcoming years. The much-debated character and approach of Alexander will have shown all of its cards.
Somewhere in my gut, I believe we have seen the best of Alexander. The MVP season in which he refined many of the rough edges of his game will be the highlight."
Contract in hand, will he look beyond the team elements of a running back -- blitz pickup, pass routes and decoy situations -- and become even more obsessed in his quest for stats?
These are the questions that Alexander will answer in the upcoming years. The much-debated character and approach of Alexander will have shown all of its cards.
Somewhere in my gut, I believe we have seen the best of Alexander. The MVP season in which he refined many of the rough edges of his game will be the highlight."
Tuesday, March 07, 2006
MARQUAND MANUEL LEAVING THE HAWKS
Reports out of Green Bay have the Packers signing safety Marquand Manuel.
This is a blow to the Hawks because they are so short on depth at the safety. It puts a larger onus on whether or not Ken Hamlin is going to return. Look for the Hawks to address the safety position in their draft and off-season moves.
Manuel wasn't flashy, but his emergence after the Hamlin injury seemed to coincide with the disappearance of all the big plays the Hawks had been allowing. His fundamentals were terrific and rarely was he out of position.
Finally, this is a classic example of how making the Super Bowl puts a spotlight on all your players. Had the Hawks gone 9-7 and lost in the playoffs Manuel would not have been sought after.
Monday, March 06, 2006
MIXED EMOTIONS ON THE ALEXANDER SIGNING
THE GOOD -- THE CONTRACT
First let’s breakdown the contract. This is a great contract for the Seattle Seahawks. The contract is basically a 3 year 23 million dollar contract. If after 3 years when Alexander is 32 and in the danger zone the Hawks can cut him and he would only be a 2.75 million dollar hit on the cap for 2009. At that point it that will be less then 3% of the cap. Basically the Hawks are banking that Alexander is going to be productive for three more seasons and if he is for a 4th then they have his rights. It is a really good deal for the Hawks.
In addition, Alexander is in his correct place in the pecking order. Matt Hasselbeck and Walter Jones both are making more money, as should be the case.
In regards to re-signing Shaun this was the right move, it let him get his ego trip of being the highest paid back, which is what his ego had to have and it avoided Shaun going on the opening market and getting mad. Shaun ego is unique enough that this could have gotten interesting.
From a Hawks perspective it is the right move, they are rolling, fans are juiced, they are coming off a Super Bowl why rock the boat.
JUST DOESN'T FEEL RIGHT
Let me say this, I don’t have a great feeling about it. Somewhere I really believe the right move was to let Shaun move on. This would have taken the biggest balls and would have defied all logic particularly when the Hawks were able to structure the deal the way they did.
But, it just doesn’t feel right. Alexander was perfect last year. Agreed. A large part of me thinks it was time for the Hawks to say we pushed ever button and we milked everything out of him and now it is someone else’s turn to deal with Shaun.
Call me crazy. And I will admit most of my pragmatic, numbers based historically based arguments of backs aging are eliminated by the structure of the deal. Nonetheless, somehow I think we will look back on this and say that it never worked the way we thought.
Sunday, March 05, 2006
HAWKS SIGN ALEXANDER
The Seattle Seahawks have signed Shaun Alexander to an 8 year 62 million dollar contract. More details to follow……. Here is the link to the FoxSports Story.
SIMULBLOG FOR SONICS V. JAZZ
SEATTLE WINS IN DOMINATING PERFORMANCE 113-81
Sonics 91 Jazz 68 at the end of 3 quarters.
Seattle is brilliant tonight.
Brilliant on the defensive end
Brilliant in the opening floor.
Brilliant in the half court
The Jazz are a great match-up for Seattle, but tonight Seattle hit a vibe they haven’t had all season.
AK’s foul trouble was huge he is Utah’s energy.
Sonics 75 Utah 54 with 7:07 left in the 3rd Quarter
AK got his 4th foul at the 9:33 mark of the third Quarter
Seattle is really stymieing the half court game of the Jazz
Some of this is the match-up with Utah but a lot of it is a new energy running through the Sonics that is visibly obvious
Sonics 61 Utah 47 at the half
Sonics lead the fastbreak 21-4. Watson and Ridnour make this team fast, fast, fast
Lewis and Allen have been great
Seattle has had the Jazz on their heels the entire game. Moreover, Utah is not playing their game. Instead of being in the half court slicing and dicing the Sonics the Jazz are playing an up tempo game.
Last time these teams played the Sonics never allowed Utah to get into their sets
Sonics 49 Jazz 35 with 5:08 left in the 2nd Quarter
Seattle has the Jazz number
Nick Collison is out with plantar problem in his left foot and his return is questionable. It happened when he came down after a rebound.
Two great things have happened to Luke Ridnour recently. First the acquisition of Earl Watson has ignited the fire inside of him to keep his job and the National invitation to play for the USA team give him great confidence. These two may lead him into the next sphere for his career.
Sonics 37 Jazz 27 with 8:57 left in the 2nd Quarter
Ray Allen has the range tonight. 5 for 5 from the field and 3 for 3 behind the arch
Wow Seattle looks good. They really play well against this team.
Having Earl Watson on the floor instead of Flip Murray is a remarkable difference.
Chris Wilcox on back to back to plays brought an element this team hasn’t had in sometime. Boozer beat Lewis and when he went for the dunk Wilcox meet him at the apex and effected the shot. Then he ran the floor full blast and Watson hit him with an alley-opp.
Sonics 27 Jazz 20 with :49 seconds left in the 1st Quarter.
Lewis went 1 on 1 at Kirlenko twice in the ball game and both time drew fouls. AK leaves the game at the 4:50 mark with the Sonics up by 10.
Watson and Ridnour are playing together and it brings a lot of energy to the floor.
They really push the ball. Before the game Bob Hill was talking about the team getting used to the speed Watson plays at and how remarkably fast he is with the ball.
If Watson has a weakness it is an in between game, but that has not been evident tonight as he hit a Magic Johnson running hook in the paint.
Sonics 18 Jazz 9 with 6:00 left in the 1st Quarter
Great match-up tonight Rashard v. AK 47 . The Sonics have to keep Rashard moving and occupying AK because he is a dynamite off the ball defender.
Sonics have started fantastically. Hitting 7 of 9 from the field.
The defensive rotation and intensity is terrific
The team held a pre-game meeting on the floor that had a vastly different energy then what I have seen all season. The bad energy has left this team and it is obvious.
Storylines
1) Jazz great offensive rebounding v. Sonics poor defensive rebounding
2) Jazz inability to shoot v. Sonics inability to defend
3) Turnover game. Jazz must have turns to score.
Sonics 91 Jazz 68 at the end of 3 quarters.
Seattle is brilliant tonight.
Brilliant on the defensive end
Brilliant in the opening floor.
Brilliant in the half court
The Jazz are a great match-up for Seattle, but tonight Seattle hit a vibe they haven’t had all season.
AK’s foul trouble was huge he is Utah’s energy.
Sonics 75 Utah 54 with 7:07 left in the 3rd Quarter
AK got his 4th foul at the 9:33 mark of the third Quarter
Seattle is really stymieing the half court game of the Jazz
Some of this is the match-up with Utah but a lot of it is a new energy running through the Sonics that is visibly obvious
Sonics 61 Utah 47 at the half
Sonics lead the fastbreak 21-4. Watson and Ridnour make this team fast, fast, fast
Lewis and Allen have been great
Seattle has had the Jazz on their heels the entire game. Moreover, Utah is not playing their game. Instead of being in the half court slicing and dicing the Sonics the Jazz are playing an up tempo game.
Last time these teams played the Sonics never allowed Utah to get into their sets
Sonics 49 Jazz 35 with 5:08 left in the 2nd Quarter
Seattle has the Jazz number
Nick Collison is out with plantar problem in his left foot and his return is questionable. It happened when he came down after a rebound.
Two great things have happened to Luke Ridnour recently. First the acquisition of Earl Watson has ignited the fire inside of him to keep his job and the National invitation to play for the USA team give him great confidence. These two may lead him into the next sphere for his career.
Sonics 37 Jazz 27 with 8:57 left in the 2nd Quarter
Ray Allen has the range tonight. 5 for 5 from the field and 3 for 3 behind the arch
Wow Seattle looks good. They really play well against this team.
Having Earl Watson on the floor instead of Flip Murray is a remarkable difference.
Chris Wilcox on back to back to plays brought an element this team hasn’t had in sometime. Boozer beat Lewis and when he went for the dunk Wilcox meet him at the apex and effected the shot. Then he ran the floor full blast and Watson hit him with an alley-opp.
Sonics 27 Jazz 20 with :49 seconds left in the 1st Quarter.
Lewis went 1 on 1 at Kirlenko twice in the ball game and both time drew fouls. AK leaves the game at the 4:50 mark with the Sonics up by 10.
Watson and Ridnour are playing together and it brings a lot of energy to the floor.
They really push the ball. Before the game Bob Hill was talking about the team getting used to the speed Watson plays at and how remarkably fast he is with the ball.
If Watson has a weakness it is an in between game, but that has not been evident tonight as he hit a Magic Johnson running hook in the paint.
Sonics 18 Jazz 9 with 6:00 left in the 1st Quarter
Great match-up tonight Rashard v. AK 47 . The Sonics have to keep Rashard moving and occupying AK because he is a dynamite off the ball defender.
Sonics have started fantastically. Hitting 7 of 9 from the field.
The defensive rotation and intensity is terrific
The team held a pre-game meeting on the floor that had a vastly different energy then what I have seen all season. The bad energy has left this team and it is obvious.
Storylines
1) Jazz great offensive rebounding v. Sonics poor defensive rebounding
2) Jazz inability to shoot v. Sonics inability to defend
3) Turnover game. Jazz must have turns to score.
NBA OFFENSIVE STUDS AND DUDS
For those of you who have followed Locked on Sports for a while this will look familiar. For those of you new here is a quick explanation. Stud and Dud is a formula that I use to evaluate offensive players. It takes a players pts per scoring attempt and compares it to the league average. Then it multiplies that by the ability of the player to get his shot off. If the player is above the league average in pts per scoring attempt then his rating goes up (see Rashard), but if he is below then his rating gets worse (see Flip Murray). The league average is zero. Most starters should be between 25 and 75. The best in the game are over 100.
STUDS
1) Steve Nash 151.1
2) Dirk Nowitzi 133.0
3) Kevin Martin 132.0
4) Paul Pierce 130.9
5) Chauncey Billups 128.6
6) Elton Brand 127.1
7) Richard Jefferson 118.3
8) Rashard Lewis 118.2
9) Chris Bosh 117.5
10) Kevin Garnett 115.7
DUDS (must have played 400 minutes)
1) Kris Humphires -178.6
2) Eddie Griffin -162.3
3) Ryan Bown -157.8
4) Antonio Burks -153.2
5) Jannero Pargo -128.5
6) Kareem Rush -117
7) Jason Hart -116.3
8) Flip Murray -114.5
9) Rafael Aruajo -112.4
10) Emeka Okafor -109.2
SONICS
1) Rashard Lewis 118.2
2) Ray Allen 112.9
3) Danny Forston 95.1
4) Chris Wilcox 82.2
5) Earl Watson 40.2
6) Nick Collison 23.3
7) Damien Wilkins 15.3 (this is a huge improvement)
8) Robert Swift -6.7
9) Johan Petro -27.7
10) Luke Ridnour -36.1
11) Mikki Moore -90
12) Mike Wilks -172.9
Here are the best in the NBA -- THE STUDS -- and the worst --- THE DUDS.
1) Steve Nash 151.1
2) Dirk Nowitzi 133.0
3) Kevin Martin 132.0
4) Paul Pierce 130.9
5) Chauncey Billups 128.6
6) Elton Brand 127.1
7) Richard Jefferson 118.3
8) Rashard Lewis 118.2
9) Chris Bosh 117.5
10) Kevin Garnett 115.7
DUDS (must have played 400 minutes)
1) Kris Humphires -178.6
2) Eddie Griffin -162.3
3) Ryan Bown -157.8
4) Antonio Burks -153.2
5) Jannero Pargo -128.5
6) Kareem Rush -117
7) Jason Hart -116.3
8) Flip Murray -114.5
9) Rafael Aruajo -112.4
10) Emeka Okafor -109.2
Here are the Sonics ratings.
SONICS
1) Rashard Lewis 118.2
2) Ray Allen 112.9
3) Danny Forston 95.1
4) Chris Wilcox 82.2
5) Earl Watson 40.2
6) Nick Collison 23.3
7) Damien Wilkins 15.3 (this is a huge improvement)
8) Robert Swift -6.7
9) Johan Petro -27.7
10) Luke Ridnour -36.1
11) Mikki Moore -90
12) Mike Wilks -172.9
New York Daily News - Gary Myers - Gary Myers: This doesn't make cents
I am back from vacation and catching up on my work. I will be on the air tonight at 5:20 for the Sonics v. the Jazz. However, bigger news as I found this today in the New York Daily News.
New York Daily News - Gary Myers - Gary Myers: This doesn't make cents: "The Seahawks are close to a deal to re-sign free agent Shaun Alexander, the NFL MVP and rushing champion, before he hits the open market, which right now is scheduled to be at 12:01 tonight. He's likely to get between $12 million-$15 million in guaranteed money. Seattle, by previous agreement, could not use its franchise tag on Alexander. He's an irreplaceable part for the Seahawks and they are the best fit for him. The contract could be announced tomorrow."
New York Daily News - Gary Myers - Gary Myers: This doesn't make cents: "The Seahawks are close to a deal to re-sign free agent Shaun Alexander, the NFL MVP and rushing champion, before he hits the open market, which right now is scheduled to be at 12:01 tonight. He's likely to get between $12 million-$15 million in guaranteed money. Seattle, by previous agreement, could not use its franchise tag on Alexander. He's an irreplaceable part for the Seahawks and they are the best fit for him. The contract could be announced tomorrow."
Wednesday, March 01, 2006
ON VACATION
I am on vacation until Sunday. For the latest Sonics info during games check out Kevin Pelton's live blog at supersonics.com. Be safe and have fun talk with you on Sunday.
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