Has anyone seen ....

JJ

Status check on the Mariners

What I saw the last two days out of the Mariners is concerning. This is a good baseball team. However, it is a baseball team that has been winning games because they believe they are good. In fact, they believe they are better than they actually are and that is half the battle. Yet, today I thought I saw a team that doubted if they really were good enough to compete with the elite. A team that wonders if it really belongs as a playoff team. The M's have had an amazing ability to win close games this year. They won these games because they believed. If they have lost that belief they are about to become very average.

This is a scary scenario. The good news is if the Yankees falter and now jumps on the wild card lead in the next week, the Mariners can right themselves. On the other hand, if they fall out of the lead they may never regain the confidence to believe they should win.

Why do they let this happen

I am at a total loss. The Mariners just let Vlady beat them to take a 6-5 lead and then the Ichiro beat them to make it 6-6. What ever happened to the rule that you don't let the best guy beat you.

Reaction to Sonics Owner Comments

A lot of people have emailed me wanted me to react to the comments by the Sonics owner. I haven't done so since I think it is very well covered and moreover, as someone who was recently fired by them I think my comments seem skewed either way. If I blast you think I am bitter, if I don't you think I being political.

The comments stand on their own along with the released statements for each fan to react to on their own. It doesn't seem like their needs to be a lot of analysis.

On a sidenote, the Sonics yesterday hired Matt Pinto to be the radio play by play announcer. Matt is a really good guy and a very strong announcer. You will like his work. Matt has now worked for 4 different NBA teams so he is very experienced and understands the NBA well.

Mariners should extend Bavasi

Today the Seattle Mariners sit in the playoffs. That would seem to be enough to give General Manager Bill Bavasi a passing grade. However, for a great deal of the Mariners fans the three straight 90 loss season's are more than they can overcome.

Their is no question in my mind the Mariners should extend Bill Bavasi. The truth here is the Mariners got what they hired. The problem is they tried to turn Bavasi into something else in the first few years of his stewardship. Bavasi is a system developer not a free agent signer.

Bavasi's track record with the Angels and the Dodgers is on of the best in baseball in regards to building a franchise from the bottom up. If a major league team can add one position player and one pitcher a year from the system they are well ahead of the game. While in Anaheim, Bavasi regularly superseded that standard. He developed two to three position players a year and numerous pitchers. It was this core that became the World Champions.

This is exactly what he is doing in Seattle. Adam Jones is the newest of a collection of players and mostly pitchers that have been developed in Bavasi's system. A system that was completely dead when he took over. The drought of development in the Mariners system is what lead to the back to back to back 90 loss season not the actions of Bavasi.

Great franchises are defined by their ability to evaluate their own talent not the evaluation of the rest of the league. The ability to know what talent is going to progress and which are going to hit a wall and flounder is the basis by which all deals are made and franchises develop. In the past the Mariners have been one of the worst in baseball at this. Today they are reaching the upper echelon.

If Bavasi has a weakness he is inconsistent in the success of his free agent signings. That is as much a reality of free agency as it is a Bavasi's fault. Free agency is inconsistent. Moreover, Bavasi was forced to play the free agent market with a team that had enormous gaps and no talent coming up the system. The Mariners put Bavasi in a position to fail in an area that was not his strength.

He has now rectified that with the fantastic development of talent throughout the minor leagues. This means that in the upcoming years he will be able to deal from a position of strength when fixing the club rather than a position of weakness.

That is why Bavasi needs an extension.

The moves of the Boston Celtics

I was talking with a buddy about the Celtics today and it finally struck me what I like so much about what Danny Ainge and the Celtics did this off-season acquiring both Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen.

Too often teams over value their own talent. The Celtics did the opposite. Some of their players were nice but none of them were anything special. Al Jefferson is currently overvalued because he put up good numbers on a bad team. He is a nice player, but not a star player and to win you must get a star player.

Teams do the young re-building thing all the time. It doesn't work unless you get a star. The NBA is a star's league. The Celtics didn't have a star so they moved a bunch of acquired assets and got established players. The day the Blazers and the Sonics won the lottery the Celtics made the correct decision to move all their assets. Had they got Durant or Oden they would have seemingly had their star.

I can't tell you how many times talking to a GM I have heard how one of his players is really going to be fantastic in a few years so we can't move him now. Every now and again a Rashard Lewis comes around who actually develops, but more often than not it never happens. Which means teams hold onto potential that never develops.

It is refreshing to see someone do the opposite. A tip of the hat to Danny Ainge and the Celtics.

Pacers and Sonics face truth on the cycle

It is obvious that the Pacers are looking to trade Jermaine O'Neal and start a rebuilding process. What jumps out at me is that the Pacers and the Sonics are at the same point. Both of these franchises were at the top of their games in the mid 90's. Each got one trip to the NBA Finals.

However, after their single trip to the NBA Finals parts of their roster started tpo fall apart. For the Sonics, Shawn Kemp went off the deep end simultaneously the core of Det, Perkins (thanks for the correction) the Hawk, etc all started aging. For the Pacers Rik Smits called it quits and the rest of their crew namely Reggie Miller started to age.

Neither team was willing to un-load and rebuild at that moment. Instead, they both tried to re-gain the magic and avoid the inevitable cycle that is the NBA. We all know the Sonics path trying everything from Patrick Ewing to resurrecting Vin to trading GP for Ray. The Pacers gambled with Ron Artest, ran out the string with Reggie and gambled on Peja.

The point is that neither franchise was willing to coincide that the NBA goes in cycles and your time on the top is limited and the fall is unceremonious. The Spurs are the only team to avoid the fall and that is because they hit the jackpot with Duncan. Had they not gotten Duncan when David Robinson retired they would have the same place that the Knicks, Boston, Houston, Chicago and the rest ended up.

It is inevitable in the NBA.

And then their is today

After feeling so good last night -- today's Mariners performance has to make you shake your head. However, big picture they have won 3 of the last 4 series against very good teams.

Another sign of a good baseball team

I know they left 11 on the bags tonight and had numerous chances that didn't come together tonight, but my sign of a good team is when you leave a one run lose and still like the way your team approached the game. That is how I look at tonight.

Who is the bigger loser?

Vote on the pool question -- Bud Selig or Barry Bonds?

Selig's reaction tonight on sitting on his hands and then not be available for interviews tells me he thinks he is the show. He decided to turn this whole thing into being about him. If that was going to be his reaction then be a no-show. This man actually believes he is bigger than the game. As I have said before, Selig knew about the steroids (he has lied about this) and he decided that he would let it go because the game needed it. This is what you get for letting it happen and then to shun it --- you Mr. Selig are the biggest loser.

My vote is Selig.

Betting Scandal in Tennis

This from the AP in London

In an unprecedented move, British online gambling company Betfair voided all bets Friday placed on Thursday's second-round match at the Prokom Open in Sopot between the defending champion and No. 4-ranked Davydenko and No. 87-ranked Martin Vassallo Arguello of Argentina.

Betfair said it received about $7 million in bets on the match — 10 times the usual amount — and most of the money was on Arguello to win, even after Davydenko won the first set 6-2.

Baseball hypocrisy on Bonds

I don't disagree with anyone who talks about Bonds as petulant ass.

However, I find the way baseball is treating his quest for the home run record despicable. The fact is Bonds has never failed a test for steroids by Major League Baseball. Why, because baseball didn't test. Why, because baseball had no steroid policy. Why, because Bud Selig and baseball conscientiously put their head in the sand about an obvious steroid issue. Why, because baseball was in such desperate need of a pulse that it was willing to allow performance enhancing drugs to bring the fans back.

Therefore, for Bud Selig and the baseball world to stand on some ethical plateau on the issue of Bonds breaking the home run record is one of the greatest acts of hypocrisy that the game has even seen.

Remember when .....

Yuniskey Betancourt was an all defensive too weak to hit shortstop and Jeremy Reed was going to be the all everything offensive player. Sometimes numbers aren't the answer. Instead what mattered was that no matter how bad his pitch selection was when Betancourt hits the ball the bat wins the battle and when Reed hits the ball the ball beats the bat.

Bonds road to 755

My guess is this takes forever. Considering how terrible Bonds has been in every pressure situation his entire career I assume it is going to take him a while to hit the next two home runs.

Wouldn't it be a pity if the nation lost the last little bit of its waning interest because he can't connect over the next 10 days.

Passing of the First Genius

Everyone remembers their first team. They recall the first player they loved. They remember the first jersey they ever had. I vividly remember my first coach.

Bill Walsh was my first coach. He walked the sidelines with silver hair of a fox and the smarts to match. When Walsh walked your sideline you knew you were ahead before the game started.

As a seven year old I watched him when he lead the Stanford Cardinal to back to back bowl games. First it was the Bluebonnet Bowl and next the Sun Bowl. He was magical. He had the answer to every situation and was a step ahead of the game.

My memory tells me he used to bring Darin Nelson out of the backfield in motion to the sideline and then send him on a streak down the sideline. At that stage defenses weren't ready for those type of moves and mismatches were exposed all over the field. After playing for Walsh, Nelson left Stanford as the all time NCAA total yardage gainer. Walsh believed that a 5 yard gain on a pass to the running back was as important as the 5 yard run by the back and Nelson was the recipient.

He took his magic to the sidelines of the despondent San Fransisco 49ers. He quickly took a culture less franchise that was 2-14 and brought them to life. He gave them the edge. Where some coaches have brought a toughness with their persona, Walsh brought a genius. Roger Craig was his piece that he figured out how to use better than anyone before him. Craig a powerful fullback/running back from Nebraska, would play the fullback for Walsh and one year lead the NFL in receptions.

Walsh made you believe the guy on your sideline was truly smarter than their guy.

To understand what Walsh did to the game of football simply look into Seattle. Mike Holmgren is a disciple of Walsh. Tyrone Willingham is a product of the minority coaching program that Walsh built and Willingham learned under Walsh and Dennis Green, another Walsh disciple.

Walsh's influence changed how the game was played, how coaches were taught, how coaches were viewed and what people expected.

My first coach was the best that ever coached.

Fans love the kids but .....

Tonight's performance by Miguel Batista is why you sign a veteran. Tonight's game sets the tone for the entire marquee series against the Angels. Batista has the rings around the tree to understand the importance of tonight's game. He brought his best performance of the year to the table.

With John Lackey against Jeff Weaver tomorrow Batista had a huge burden of carrying the Mariners into the series. He needed to keep the bullpen fresh and most of all he needed to get this team in a position to win.

Fans always love the guy in AAA. They always want the youngster to come up. However, young kids don't have the experience to have the appearance that Batista did tonight.

Key stat and a huge sign of experience by Batista was 0 walks.

When you plead not guilty .....

You better hope your co-defendant do the same. It is not a good day to be Mike Vick when your co-defendant pleads guilty and decides to "fully cooperate" with the auhtorities.

I guess when he decided to change his name to Mike from Michael so he wouldn't be like Jordan, he knew what he was doing.

Next stage in Donaghy scandal

The next stage of the Donaghy scandal has begun. We moved from the story itself, to the view of odds makers and now we have arrived at each city looking at specific games. In today's paper the Houston Chronicle and the Indianapolis's Star breakdown games that Donaghy officiated.

Whenever you go micro in this fashion the result seems a bit more intense.

From the Chronicle ....

"The big trend with him in particular is that the first 15 games last season he refereed where we saw line movement of at least 1 1/2 points were a perfect 15-of-15 for the big-money people betting," said Matty O'Shea, general manager of content at pregame.com and a handicapper. "The odds of that happening randomly are only 33,000-to-1."

"He led the NBA in calling fouls, in free-throw attempts the last two seasons. That's kind of a red flag. He's a whistle-happy ref. There's a game (between) Miami and New York, the free-throw differential was 39-8. A four-point favorite won by six, and the total went over by a half-point.

"Last season, 13 games he did fell within a single point of the point spread. We found in the last two seasons, 14 games were decided by two points or less."

However, when you really get into the specific game it is hard to find the play or plays that convince you the game was on the take.

with 1:50 left and the Suns leading 96-89, Donaghy called John Lucas III for a blocking foul while official Gary Zielinski called a charge against Leandro Barbosa of the Suns.

"This could tell us a lot," Whitworth said.

Instead, it seemed to indicate Donaghy was not trying to influence the result. With the score close to pregame lines, he quickly deferred to Zielinski, who changed the call to favor the Rockets.

"If Donaghy was trying to keep the Rockets under the spread, he likely would not have made the call against Lucas. If he was trying to favor the Suns, he would seem unlikely to so quickly defer to another official, particularly given Donaghy's very assertive officiating style.

"Even knowing what we know, I see zero, absolutely zero (suspicious). There were a couple ticky-tack calls, but we have those in every game. There was one play, with the wrong number (called), but there was no pattern. If I said we're looking at these referees being corrupt, you would have no idea which one it would be. And if I told you which one, you could not say which (team) he was favoring."

From the Star ......

Indiana Pacers and San Antonio Spurs on Feb. 12, 2006.

The Pacers had just taken an 86-81 lead on Stephen Jackson's 3-pointer in the final 90 seconds. With the fans at Conseco Fieldhouse buzzing in anticipation of an upset, a shrill, staccato whistle stopped the proceedings. Donaghy had called a defensive three seconds violation on Anthony Johnson.

The spread for that game was five points. The Spurs failed to cover, winning by four, but was Donaghy trying to aid their cause? Replays show the defensive three seconds call on Johnson was a quick whistle, and it was questionable whether he had both feet in the foul lane.

I think we are at a point where we can convince ourselves of anything. The intergrity is comprimised without question. How much we may never know and that is what is terrible. It forever allows us and anyone else to believe whatever they would like.

Sonics building their staff

According to the Denver Post, the Sonics are hiring Bill Branch from the Denver Nuggets. Inside the circle of basketball Branch is very highly respected. His work ethic is marvelous and his eye for the game is fantastic.

Branch will be the Director of Pro Personnel. Branch is recognized as one of the best advanced scouts in the NBA. This is a strong move by the Sonics.

See the Mariners were right

Randy Johnson is out for the season needing back surgery. See the Mariners were right this whole time. Johnson's back was never an going to hold up long term. Their is no way you can pay that guy big money with a back like that.

Mariners were right again.